Predictions

[Purple]

I don't understand what the Duke is showing.

 

[redstar]

You'll lose money with every party except FF ??

 

[michaelm]

He has €6 @ 7.0 (6/1) on FF to win most seats. His position is +€42 (less commission) if FF manage it and -€6 if any other party gets most seats. He has an option to now lay FF such that he will make a profit whatever happens.

 

[Purple]

He has €6 @ 7.0 (6/1) on FF to win most seats. His position is +€42 (less commission) if FF manage it and -€6 if any other party gets most seats. He has an option to now lay FF such that he will make a profit whatever happens.

I don't understand it slightly less.

 

[Leper]

Simplification:- Paddy Power has odds on for FF to win more seats than any other party. FG are 5/2 and SF 7/2.
I hope you can get to grips with the PP odds. SF were 7/1 last week for the same bet.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I don't understand it slightly less.

Let me try (sure to reverse any progress you have made).
In the blue column you will see 1.74 in the FF row. This means that if you "buy" FF for 1 you will get 1.74 back if it wins including the return of your 1 stake. This implies the chances of a FF win as 1/1.74 = 57%. There is currently €17 on offer at this price. The overround % on offer is 101.2%. The closer this is to 100% the "fairer" the market. It is an exchange - you are dealing with another investor - the exchange (Betfair) takes 2% of any "winnings".
In the pink column there is 1.88 in the FF row with currently €43 bid. This means you can "sell" (or go short in the jargon) FF to receive 1 on the obligation to pay up 1.88 if it wins. The gap between 1.74 and 1.88 is a sort of bid/offer spread. Note that small is good. Labour is 1,000 because 1,000 is the highest bid/offer on Betfair. I will offer you 1,000,000.
The blue and pink columns are the currently most competitive with the other columns the less competitive offers/bids.
Try reading @michaelm's post again after this lesson.

Warning: investments can fall as well as rise, indeed they can go to zero.

 

[peemac]

As for the result of this election, after the European results, I had a small investment at 6/1 that FF would get the most seats in the upcoming GE . I see they are now odds on to do so.

You do know that you will be asked to buy at least two rounds at AAM drinks once the exit polls are out?

 

[Purple]

He has €6 @ 7.0 (6/1) on FF to win most seats. His position is +€42 (less commission) if FF manage it and -€6 if any other party gets most seats. He has an option to now lay FF such that he will make a profit whatever happens.

Let me try (sure to reverse any progress you have made).
In the blue column you will see 1.74 in the FF row. This means that if you "buy" FF for 1 you will get 1.74 back if it wins including the return of your 1 stake. This implies the chances of a FF win as 1/1.74 = 57%. There is currently €17 on offer at this price. The overround % on offer is 101.2%. The closer this is to 100% the "fairer" the market. It is an exchange - you are dealing with another investor - the exchange (Betfair) takes 2% of any "winnings".
In the pink column there is 1.88 in the FF row with currently €43 bid. This means you can "sell" (or go short in the jargon) FF to receive 1 on the obligation to pay up 1.88 if it wins. The gap between 1.74 and 1.88 is a sort of bid/offer spread. Note that small is good. Labour is 1,000 because 1,000 is the highest bid/offer on Betfair. I will offer you 1,000,000.
The blue and pink columns are the currently most competitive with the other columns the less competitive offers/bids.
Try reading @michaelm's post again after this lesson.

Warning: investments can fall as well as rise, indeed they can go to zero.

Thanks, now I understand.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I actually bought at 8 which is 7/1.

 

[michaelm]

I actually bought at 8 which is 7/1.

Even better. I didn't question your earlier, now edited, post where you previously stated 6/1, but I should have worked it out when you inserted the Betfair screenshot.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I suppose my main purpose in going down this rabbit hole is to illustrate the very significant turn-around in the last few months, with SF and FF switching places as odds-on favourite and outsider of the three. Last night's debate did not faze the market.

 

[peemac]

I suppose my main purpose in going down this rabbit hole is to illustrate the very significant turn-around in the last few months, with SF and FF switching places as odds-on favourite and outsider of the three. Last night's debate did not faze the market.

FF always tend to get more seats than their national vote % would suggest as they are adept at bring in 2 or even 3 td's in their strong constituencies. SF have the opposite issue in that they cannot must enough votes for 2 seats except in possibly 3 constituencies and there are many constituencies that they will not be represented in - and that will be a long term issue for them. FG seem to be in the middle, so 20% vote will get 38-40 seats.

On betting, Aafter last night SF were pushed out by over a point. FF shortened further and FG stayed as they were or a 1/4 point more.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I had forgotten that MM said he wouldn't coalesce with FG before the last election. It seems to me that with it now being clear that they are joined at the hip transfers between them will be much larger this time. Put it this way, if a single party had 40% of the vote they would sweep to an overall majority. SF haven't a chance of most seats.