Predictions

[Howth Head]

Gosh....I'd say the FG handlers are livid at Harris' little faux-pas. Would expect it to have an effect on their poll ratings in the coming days. Hard to know who'll benefit mostly but I imagine FF and the independents (e.g Alan Shatter) might hoover up a few of the votes that otherwise might have gone FG's way.

In his defence I would imagine it's a no-win situation when a politician of that seniority is confronted on these "walkarounds." He might have thought it was another ambush/set-up like the PBP Chairman who was presented in the media as a "man in the street" last week.

Harris apologises to Cork care worker he walked away from

Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has said he apologises unreservedly for the interaction he had with a woman in Kanturk, Co Cork, last night.

www.rte.ie

 

[peemac]

Gosh....I'd say the FG handlers are livid at Harris' little faux-pas. Would expect it to have an effect on their poll ratings in the coming days. Hard to know who'll benefit mostly but I imagine FF and the independents (e.g Alan Shatter) might hoover up a few of the votes that otherwise might have gone FG's way.

In his defence I would imagine it's a no-win situation when a politician of that seniority is confronted on these "walkarounds." He might have thought it was another ambush/set-up like the PBP Chairman who was presented in the media as a "man in the street" last week.

Harris apologises to Cork care worker he walked away from

Fine Gael leader Simon Harris has said he apologises unreservedly for the interaction he had with a woman in Kanturk, Co Cork, last night.

www.rte.ie

If the election was on Saturday, it would have been very detrimental, but there's definitely a shift in people's view in the past 24 hours and you have people feeling sorry for him as it is obvious it was a time of the moment error and not something of the seriousness of sinn fein's issues of child protection within its own ranks and how badly they dealt with it.

The was some of the media are spinning it, you'd think he slam-balled the woman to the ground and then threw in a few kicks. - And that perversely, may end up working in his favour especially as the issue of disabilities and especially autism, was the reason he got into politics.

Looks fairly good for FF and they could surprise and come in with 50 seats. FG probably looking at 40-43 at present and SF up a little at 26-30.

I have a wee bet on FF having most seats @ 9/4 and look forward to collecting

 

[Leper]

I’m with @Ceist Beag here. Simon Harris has let himself open by dreadfully dismissing a Care Worker. The press jumped on that with a story that should never have happened. The story trumped the Sunday Independent Opinion Poll. Before that Simon Harris ran to the support of a fellow party member whose name possibly should never have been on the ballot. Lack of god judgement is not his forte. Remember some months ago when he said the election would not be held before 2025. Sorry Simon, you shot yourself in the foot once more. I couldn’t see Micheal Martin or Mary Lou making such ridiculous news.

 

[redstar]

FG down 6 now in latest IT/Ipsos poll. Its hard to tell where the numbers have gone though. I suspect to 'Don't Knows'.
FF up slightly, SF almost unchanged but Dont Knows are at 19%. Thats very significant given that the 3 main parties are nearly the same - low 20s and all within the %margin of error. Too close to call ?

 

[Purple]

I couldn’t see Micheal Martin or Mary Lou making such ridiculous news.

I could.

Simon Harris has let himself open by dreadfully dismissing a Care Worker.

I hate the way a display of sympathy and soundbites are more important than substance and competence.
Hand-wringing earnestness and moral outrage at (Insert your pet issue) should not be the basis upon which governments are elected.

 

[24601]

more important than substance and competence.

I would accuse Simon Harris of many things but I would never accuse him having substance or competence!

 

[Peanuts20]

FG down 6 now in latest IT/Ipsos poll. Its hard to tell where the numbers have gone though. I suspect to 'Don't Knows'.
FF up slightly, SF almost unchanged but Dont Knows are at 19%. Thats very significant given that the 3 main parties are nearly the same - low 20s and all within the %margin of error. Too close to call ?

I wouldn't think so. Current Gov are showing at 44% so they may need to drag a few independents or Soc Dem in to close it out.

Alternative (if you assume both FF and FG would not do a deal with SF) is a new Rainbow coalition but it would have some many diverse parts in it that it would be hard to see it lasting.

 

[Purple]

I would accuse Simon Harris of many things but I would never accuse him having substance or competence!

I suppose that has to be judged in the context of the rest substance and competence of the field.
My point is that politicians who show empathy, however sincere or otherwise that may be, seem more likely to be elected than politicians who show competence. If they have both that's great but competence is more important.

 

[Howth Head]

Many pundits seem to think that Aontú could be the big surprise in this election. While still a relatively tiny and largely unknown party they could well attract a decent chunk of conservative but disgruntled FG/FF voters. They've certainly been strong on immigration (depending on your viewpoint) and were the only party that opposed the defeated referenda earlier this year, lending them at least some credibility as being more "in touch" with the electorate. Their so called "Pro Life" stance might make them hard to attract some of the young/urban vote - though strangely that issue didn't affect the US election as much as predicted.

Could they be the kingmakers in a future FF/FG coalition - instead of Labour who, up until recently had been suggested as replacing the Greens in the next Government?

It'll be fascinating to watch...

 

[michaelm]

Could they be the kingmakers in a future FF/FG coalition

Maybe. I wouldn't be shocked to see FF/SF with Aontú and/or Independent Ireland.

 

[Leper]

The more I think, the more I reckon Sinn Fein will be in the reckoning with Fianna Fáil to form the next coalition government. One or two of the rest might be dragged in to augment numbers. This could mean that Micheal Martin will resign as leader of FF. I hope I’m wrong, but Simon Harris has been so naive where strength of character was needed and all SF has to do is sit back and not score a home goal. FG have scored two blatant home goals.

 

[Howth Head]

Maybe. I wouldn't be shocked to see FF/SF with Aontú and/or Independent Ireland.

I'd certainly be shocked to see that kind of line-up!

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

These televised walkabouts are so so faux. To see MM (for example) listening so intently to some randomer is really cringemaking.
As for the result of this election, after the European results, I had a small investment at 6/1 that FF would get the most seats in the upcoming GE . I see they are now odds on to do.