Pensioners should have 100% equities - side issues

Are we now arguing that we do away with The Central Bank as regulation seems an unnecessary expense altogether.
No. Where did you get that from?
I mean if everyone has the risk capacity for 100% equities for their retirement and a massive pension fraud is a moderate inconvenience
Likewise.

My point was in support of Brendan's reasonable point that
A person who has their own home and the OAP can withstand their equity portfolio bombing out.
 
You are adding additional risk to him by sending him to a financial advisor who should tell him that anyway, but might well sell him products which are in the advisor's interest and not his.

This is a damning statement.

You are inferring that the whole financial advice profession in Ireland is less well positioned to guide someone than your website which isn’t regulated, carries no PI insurance, isn’t required to compete a fact find, has many anonymous posters and some conflicts of interest and which frequently defaults to ignore advisers and go for a discount execution only service as often the default response @ClubMan et al without first even assessing the poster’s knowledge and experience.


As they say in Dragons Den, I’m out.
 
There is a chance that the equity premium is due to some risk that is priced in by the market, but one that hasn't happened in 100 years. A long duration war, a pandemic without a vaccine, AI driven game changes etc. So betting on it not happening is a personal choice/bet.

Alternatively, the premium is just due to people not liking market fluctuations and buy and holders can buy fluctuating assets at a discount and hold them through turbulence earning a premium. In that case the risk is that the premium might disappear down the line if investing practice changes, we all start using 'MoneyGPT', or other financial innovations to smooth returns become popular.

History tends to repeat, but we live in very interesting times and I'm not sure anyone knows how AI and financial innovation is going to impact on market dynamics over the next 10 or 20 years. For me, it's risk driving that return and the risk is that you don't maintain your investment goal within the desired timeframe (to quote Keynes 'in the long run we are all dead'). Also, in the case of retirement you might not be dead but you also could have a lot less opportunities to spend money as time goes by, so the consumption is front loaded.
It's pretty simple. People tend to trade certainty for opportunity. It's been discussed to death already, but some people prefer the former while others prefer the latter. Everyone has a spreadsheet or graph (and usually some ridiculous straw man) to support their perspective.

The correct choice is only ever fully apparent in hindsight, because nobody can predict the future. You pay your money and you take your chances.
 
You are inferring that the whole financial advice profession in Ireland is less well positioned to guide someone than your website which isn’t regulated, carries no PI insurance, isn’t required to compete a fact find, has many anonymous posters and some conflicts of interest and which frequently defaults to ignore advisers and go for a discount execution only service as often the default response @ClubMan et al without first even assessing the poster’s knowledge and experience.
:rolleyes:

I generally suggest that to somebody who is already looking for that sort of service and/or the lowest charges and always endeavour to qualify it with "if in doubt, get professional advice". And in very many cases I suggest to people that they at least post a Money Makeover here in order to allow others to provide better specific feedback. I resent the implication that I somehow give people misleading or inappropriate feedback based on what they post.
 
:rolleyes:

I generally suggest that to somebody who is already looking for that sort of service and/or the lowest charges and always endeavour to qualify it with "if in doubt, get professional advice". And in very many cases I suggest to people that they at least post a Money Makeover here in order to allow others to provide better specific feedback. I resent the implication that I somehow give people misleading or inappropriate feedback based on what they post.
Post in thread 'Setting up a PRSA - Fund Management Charge 1.4%'
https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threa...und-management-charge-1-4.238753/post-1914294

No attempt to ask questions. Straight to discount broker
 
Post in thread 'Setting up a PRSA - Fund Management Charge 1.4%'
https://www.askaboutmoney.com/threa...und-management-charge-1-4.238753/post-1914294

No attempt to ask questions. Straight to discount broker
I should've stuck a few charts in to mask my master plan of misleading the pension investing public... :rolleyes:

In any case, I also qualified my comments...
On the other hand maybe some people are happy to pay such a high fee for more involvement by the broker, ongoing reviews etc.

If you search for existing threads you'll probably find more info and suggestions about PRSAs in general and ones using SL Vanguard funds in particular.
And the original poster's query was specifically about charges.
 
I should've stuck a few charts in to mask my master plan of misleading the pension investing public... :rolleyes:

In any case, I also qualified my comments...

And the original poster's query was specifically about charges.

You made no attempt to justify the cost of advice.

You defaulted to DIY investing and execution only with no attempt to either understand the posters knowledge or experience or assist the poster to understand why one might pay for advice.

That is the bias of this site.
 
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Is this man married? No
how old is their spouse or partner? single

What is their financial position? comfortable

What is his state of health? top notch

Does he smoke?no

How many children does this man have? 7

How old are they? all over 25

Does he own a car? 2 of them

How old is it? 3 and 5 yra

How old is the house? 50yra old

What state of repair is it in? fantastic

What energy rating is it? b2

Does he have solar panels? yup

it insulated properly? Yup

Double glazing etc? Yup

oes he have a boiler? No a heat pump
What age is that? 5 yrs

What are his essential monthly household expenses? Food heating etc typical, average not luxurious, manageable

What quality of life does he desire? A great one

Discretionary spending.
What is his desire leave a legacy relative to his own financial security? Zero
 
And that'd be poor advice in my opinion. Yes its a more conservative option but he potentially foregoing a lot of growth.

If he sauntered up to me id tell him - based on the profile laid out above - go 100% into equities. For all the reasons outlined above not least that he will have a far better return on average and in all probability. And, he has plenty of capacity to take on the risk for the reward. Simples.

That'd take 5 mins of a chat would be free of charge and i wouldnt try sell him anything.
It would be good advice in the opinion regulators (see FCA position on capacity for loss)

, the professional indemnity insurers( significantly reduced risk of claim for professional negligence), the client ( no longevity risk) the adviser ( no sequence of return or market risk) and society at large (less risk of claiming benefits) but you cling to your minority opinion.
 
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You defaulted to DIY investing and execution only with no attempt to assist the poster to understand why one might pay for advice.

That is the bias of this site.
You are free to post as many times as you want to correct any bias.

After another 49000 posts you will cancel out any bias in favour of Clubman.
 
I think this is key.........IMO one should think of their home equity as something akin to a cash reserve/bond allocation inside of their wider retirement asset pool allowing IMO a much higher allocation to equities in your ARF than is typically recommended >

95% equities /5% treasuries would be what I'd go for......

In sustained bear markets one would expect that monetary authorities will have reduced interest rates.....which provides a kind of counter-cyclical opportunity to access a home equity line of credit (reverse mortgage) at a relatively low interest rate which allows for continued equity market participation.

Now Ireland forces retirees to withdraw 5% a year from their ARF.....which complicates matters...the 5% treasury allocation in my portfolio above allows for a kind of painless & uncomplicated withdrawal without touching your equities in Year One of a bear market (say in a 2022 scenario)....however given the compulsory 5% withdrawal rate in Year Two of said bear market you've got a problem cause you've exhausted your bond bucket in year one...lets call this a multi-year GFC type event...so the strategy above would advocate for a retiree to take those forced equity withdrawals in Year Two from their ARF and immediately investing the net proceeds back into a taxable brokerage account that mirrors the forced withdrawal that just occured from the ARF index funds....funding of your day to day living expenses would now switch in this period to the proceeds from your home equity line of credit......and this would continue until the equity market recovers to baseline.

It's a strategy by which the damage of drawdowns & Ireland's forced 5% ARF withdrawal is mitigated.....but it requires discipline.
Is HELOC readily available to most people in Ireland?
 
Hi Jimmy

Now that I have moved a lot of the interesting but distracting stuff to a new thread, I can discuss your questions without derailing the main thread.

1. Do you agree that investment strategy should be aligned to one's investment objectives? (It's pretty much a yes/no question)

Yes. And it's a good idea to sit down and think through what your investment objectives are.
What should the investment objectives of a 66 year old retired person be?
1) Avoid destitution. They should give up the prospect of some higher return to make sure that they don't end up their lives queuing at foodbanks.
2) Have a good income in retirement to allow them do what they want to do.

Depending on how much cash they have to invest, there might be a conflict between these two.
But as most people with money to invest own their own home and have the COAP, they will always achieve their first investment objective.
So their focus should be on having a good income.

Investing 100% in equities maximises the chances of a good income in retirement. They could be unlucky and run out of money. But if they invest 100% in bonds or buy an annuity, they could have their spending power seriously reduced by inflation.
 
2. Do you think it is possible for someone to prefer a less volatile income stream over maximising income? (again pretty much yes/no)

What sort of a question is that?
Of course it is possible.
Some people would be happy to put all their retirement savings into one company because they think that AI is going to be the best thing ever. That would be stupid, but it's possible to have that preference.

Others would be happy to watch their wealth and spending power being gradually eroded by inflation rather than face the risk of their investments falling suddenly in value.

But your preference or mine is not as relevant as what is the right thing to do.

I have never liked the question "What is your attitude to risk?" . I much prefer telling the person "Given x, y, and z, you can tolerate risk in exchange for the expectation of a higher income" or "Given your circumstances, you have no tolerance for risk and accordingly should do ..."
 
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