Peak of the virus

[seamus m]

Again I would imagine this lack of testing let it be 2000 a day is one reason our community transmission and clusters are so high . I mean if our healthcare workers are catching it what chance do primary carers for these cases have when they are not even sure. Also milder cases once nearly over it maybe without even knowing they had it for sure are spreading virus.
Again is phone calls to doctor right method to get testing people know they need 2 symptoms .The thermometers will not lie maybe 2high temp 2 days in row tested on third

 

[elacsaplau]

How many da

Last night's HSE report live .One of the scientists or doctors said we are testing up to 1700 per day . I don't know where everyone is getting 5000 out of

The figures that I quoted came from various media sources - as per the following examples:

Three days ago, Anne O'Connor, COO of the HSE, said that we are currently testing 5,000 cases per day.

Facts and figures of Coronavirus in Ireland

Facts and figures of Coronavirus in Ireland

www.echolive.ie

Coronavirus: Equipment shortages continue to stall HSE testing schedule

Stocks expected to be fully replenished by Tuesday while laboratories also lack reagent

www.irishtimes.com

15,500 people waiting for coronavirus tests and appointments as HSE scale up

15,500 people across the Republic of Ireland are waiting for coronavirus tests. Health chiefs revealed today that they are currently scaling up testing and test centres. ⚠️ Read our coronavirus liv…

www.thesun.ie

Two weeks ago, Harris said that we needed to ramp up testing to 15,000 per day.

15,000 tests will be carried out daily in next few days

Minister for Health Simon Harris has said it is impossible to predict when 15,000 tests a day will be carried out, but he believes it will happen in the next few days.

www.rte.ie

This consistent panic/bashing about the numbers of tests being performed/% of positive results lack any alternate solutions to the current one.

As I was central to questioning the numbers, I guess this is, at least in part, directed at me. I understand a little of what you are trying to say. However, my initial point this morning was that the numbers, as presented, didn't add up and it seems pretty clear to me now that this hunch was right.

 

[odyssey06]

This is exactly it.There are significant shortages of testing kits etc currently at a global level. Therefore the current strategy is to limit the number of those being tested to those showing highly indicative symptoms, those in the high risk categories and medical staff who are in constant contact with those who are contagious.
This consistent panic/bashing about the numbers of tests being performed/% of positive results lack any alternate solutions to the current one.

That's not the testing criteria at the moment. You have to be in a priority group.

COVID-19 testing

Testing for COVID-19 is no longer necessary for most people. But you may want to do your own antigen test. Find out more about COVID-19 testing at HSE.ie.

www2.hse.ie

It's one thing to say, we are focusing our limited test kits on X.
But in some cases, it is not being presented that way. It's being presented as, we are testing enough.
It's also not panic \ bashing to say that we need to be testing more, we need more test kits while accepting right now we have to limit the tests.

 

[Eireog007]

I was central to questioning the numbers, I guess this is, at least in part, directed at me. I understand a little of what you are trying to say. However, my initial point this morning was that the numbers, as presented, didn't add up and it seems pretty clear to me now that this hunch was right.
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It wasn’t intended as a shot at anybody in particular really just a general undercurrent of that sentiment I’ve noticed a lot recently.

I will admit I hadn’t seen the change in protocol to restrict it to those priority groups but I do understand the reasoning behind it. If we have limited resources then we must focus them where they will do the most good.

Also our capability to test 5000 per day and the restricted criteria leading to us only requiring 1500 per day do not mean both are not the truth.

 

[Eireog007]

That's not the testing criteria at the moment. You have to be in a priority group.

COVID-19 testing

Testing for COVID-19 is no longer necessary for most people. But you may want to do your own antigen test. Find out more about COVID-19 testing at HSE.ie.

www2.hse.ie

It's one thing to say, we are focusing our limited test kits on X.
But in some cases, it is not being presented that way. It's being presented as, we are testing enough.
It's also not panic \ bashing to say that we need to be testing more, we need more test kits while accepting right now we have to limit the tests.

I did miss the change to only test within those priority groups so apologies for that part.

Testing enough and not testing our maximum capability are not mutually exclusive though.

 

[Leo]

Again I would imagine this lack of testing let it be 2000 a day is one reason our community transmission and clusters are so high . I mean if our healthcare workers are catching it what chance do primary carers for these cases have when they are not even sure. Also milder cases once nearly over it maybe without even knowing they had it for sure are spreading virus.

Nothing new there, it's been well established that asymptomatic transmission is a feature of COVID-19, as are high false-negative test results the among pre-symptomatic population. STaff in care homes are included in the priority group, so will be tested as appropriate.

The thermometers will not lie maybe 2high temp 2 days in row tested on third

There are lots of reasons people run a temperature. High temperature alone still won't get you a test even if you're working in ICU.

 

[seamus m]

Nothing new there, it's been well established that asymptomatic transmission is a feature of COVID-19, as are high false-negative test results the among pre-symptomatic population. STaff in care homes are included in the priority group, so will be tested as appropriate.



There are lots of reasons people run a temperature. High temperature alone still won't get you a test even if you're working in ICU.

The point had nothing to do with asymptomatic or pre symptomatic just the simple fact that virsus will be passed due to lack of testing and knowledge whether you have or had virus or not.
The second point had also to do with fact paper dosnt refuse ink and also a visit from doctor or healthcare worker to test symptoms instead of a call would probably bring strike rate higher when we obviously haven't ability to test more .

 

[Leo]

The point had nothing to do with asymptomatic or pre symptomatic just the simple fact that virsus will be passed due to lack of testing and knowledge whether you have or had virus or not.

No, it'll be passed if people don't respect the distancing or isolation advice. Lots of people will be contagious but will test negative.

a visit from doctor or healthcare worker to test symptoms instead of a call would probably bring strike rate higher when we obviously haven't ability to test more .

The main thing that would achieve is to consume more test kits and PPE and waste the time of staff.

 

[Brendan Burgess]

Lots of people will be contagious but will test negative.

I don't understand that?

 

[john luc]

with some confirmed as having the virus we see some as old and others serious so is their variants of the virus.

 

[noproblem]

Regardless of the optimism from some quarters in the HSE, when the backlog of results start to come back from the tested patients with the new criteria I can only see a huge increase in infections and ICU admissions. This will be very unsettling for older people but the same few will still ignore everything. Even in the countryside I'm seeing the over 70's +, out walking, shopping and chatting. In a lot of ways I've sympathy for them as their mindset seems to be, they'll die if they stay inside anyway, so?

 

[Brendan Burgess]

when the backlog of results start to come back from the tested patients with the new criteria I can only see a huge increase in infections and ICU admissions.

I doubt that the ICU admissions are related to testing in any way.

People are admitted to ICU when they are very sick. Quite a few of them have not been tested yet.

Brendan

 

[odyssey06]

I doubt that the ICU admissions are related to testing in any way.
People are admitted to ICU when they are very sick. Quite a few of them have not been tested yet.
Brendan

Its the opposite flow. The first community transmission identified was an untested patient who presented at a&e with severe respiratory condition and I think died subsequently.

They werent processed as a coronavirus case as they hadnt travelled or had identified contact with a confirmed case.

Led to infections in the medical staff that treated the patient.

Only testing cases of v limited criteria has risks.

 

[Eireog007]

Interesting point just clarified on tv that we are carrying out thousands of swabs per day at the new sites around the country but it’s the labs which are currently limited to around the 1700 tests of those swabs per day. I think that might be leading to some confusion in reporting of testing numbers as they aren’t distinguishing between those two stages clearly enough.

Also quite interesting is that we are bringing on board a veterinary lab which is used for testing every calf in the country and performed 1.5 million tests last year and will be running 24/7 shifts. Provided we can get our hands on adequate supplies of reagents then testing should increase massively over the next weeks.

 

[Fidgety]

Also quite interesting is that we are bringing on board a veterinary lab

In Germany, veterinary labs were used early to process tests and they can now handle 100,000 tests per day. I don't know how long it takes to turnaround the test results.

 

[Eireog007]

In Germany, veterinary labs were used early to process tests and they can now handle 100,000 tests per day. I don't know how long it takes to turnaround the test results.

The current test turnaround time once it starts in the lab is around 5 hours. I think it took a bit of time to convert their test set up to be compatible.

 

[Fidgety]

In New York, 80% of patients in ICU requiring ventilators never recover according to Governor Cuomo. That's a frightening prospect.

 

[losttheplot]

This is from an article in The Guardian, fits in with the experience of Italian doctors treating younger patients over older ones. Not a decision I'd like to make.

Coronavirus: new figures on intensive care deaths revealed

Findings of new report raise concerns about how effective new facilities will be

www.theguardian.com

"The truth is that quite a lot of these individuals [in critical care] are going to die anyway and there is a fear that we are just ventilating them for the sake of it, for the sake of doing something for them, even though it won’t be effective. That’s a worry,” one doctor said."

It was based on numbers early on. Males more at risk and weight also s possible factor.

 

[Leo]

I don't understand that?

The tests are not 100% accurate. Some of the studies from China are show tests returning 30% and higher rates of false negatives. The new faster test kits being deployed are believed to bring false negative rates down to ~15%, but not enough data exists yet to verify that. These patients will still be contagious, and the risk is they take assurance from the negative result and circulate more.

 

[SPC100]

Overall stats are something like 20 percent of cases hospitalised, 5p.c. need ICU, 1-2p.c.fatal.

So 20 to 50 p.c. of folks in icu likely will pass away.

But that rate depends on the risk factors of the population who are in ICU. Older, other illness etc all drive the fatality rate higher, as does ICU being out of capacity.

If median infected age is 83, the rate of recovery in ICU will be lower vs if median was 40.