"Only 5% of older people ever need nursing home care"

Does it matter
I think it's actually quite an important point from a financial planning perspective.

I would guess that the probability that a 65-year old man will require long term care (whether at home or in a nursing home) at some point in his life is around 30% and around 40% for a 65-year old woman (given the fact that women live longer than men).

However, that's just a guess - I've nothing to back it up.
 
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I would guess that the probability that a 65-year old man will require long term care (whether at home or in a nursing home) at some point in his life is around 30% and around 40% for a 65-year old woman (given the fact that women longer than men).

However, that's just a guess - I've nothing to back it up.

No way are the odds that high, where on earth did you pluck those estimates from..... They simply not true, I would hazard a guess ..a 5% chance for both.
 
Here are some US statistics on the % of people at various ages that will require some form of long-term care assistance at some point during their lives.

It looks like I materially underestimated the probability for a 65 year-old. Apparently there is a 52% probability that a 65-year old will require LTC at some point during their life.

Pretty sobering stuff.
 
Here are some US statistics on the % of people at various ages that will require some form of long-term care assistance at some point during their lives.

It looks like I materially underestimated the probability for a 65 year-old. Apparently there is a 52% probability that a 65-year old will require LTC at some point during their life.

Pretty sobering stuff.

You simple canot compare US statistics with Irish ones in the care of older people. For starters their life expectancy is less than ours due to a multitude of factors.
 
For starters their life expectancy is less than ours due to a multitude of factors.
Surely a lower life expectancy at 65 would imply a lower probability of requiring some form of LTC at some point (all else being equal)?

I would love to see some comparable Irish statistics because I do think this is an important issue.
 
Ireland ranks 14th, USA 38th


NoRegretsCoyote specifically said life expectancy at 65, not life expectancy at birth.

"• U.S.: Life expectancy for men at the age of 65 years 2017 | Statista" https://www.statista.com/statistics/266657/us-life-expectancy-for-men-aat-the-age-of-65-years-since-1960/#:~:text=Now men in the United,20.6 more years on average.&text=As of 2017, the average,United States was 78.54 years.
"The life expectancy for men aged 65 years in the U.S. has gradually increased since the 1960s. Now men in the United States aged 65 can expect to live 18 more years on average. Women aged 65 years can expect to live around 20.6 more years on average"

"Life expectancy rises for both males and females" https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-31009701.html?type=amp
"Life expectancy at age 65 in Ireland in 2016 was 18.3 years for men, a rise of 0.6 years since 2011, and was 21.0 years for women, an increase of 0.4 years over the same time period."
 
I would love to see some comparable Irish statistics because I do think this is an important issue.

Yes there seems to be alot of statistics the CSO do not do around death, and other topics maybe because its an unsexy topic. When Nphet I think were trying to find out what excess deaths were caused by the corona virus they had to use RIP.ie rather than the CSO because they dont gather those sort of statistics. Whats the reason ? other countries have these statistics.
 
When Nphet I think were trying to find out what excess deaths were caused by the corona virus they had to use RIP.ie rather than the CSO because they dont gather those sort of statistics. Whats the reason ? other countries have these statistics.

They do gather those statistics. The issue is that Ireland, unlike most countries, allows up to three months for next-of-kin to register a death. The CSO statistics are based on official death registrations and are always several months behind for this reason.
While relatives usually will put in a death notice contemporaneously (eg RIP.IE) they may not register the death for quite a while. Apparently this was more evident during the height of the pandemic, with people slower to attend their local registration office. It is possible now to register online but many people may be unfamiliar with this or less comfortable using the online process. In any event, they still have 3 months to do so.
 
This is life expectancy at birth.

In the US a lot more young people die from homicide, suicide, and car crashes than in Ireland.

Once you make it to 65 in the US your prospects are good.

When you look at the average American at 65, you would wonder about the rate of obesity related diseases. I am not surprised they would be far more likely to use long term care facilities long term.
 
In any event, obesity is hardly associated with longevity which would increase the probability of requiring LTC at some point.
 
In the grand scheme, Ireland is not all that different from the US.

I would say US estimates of likelihood of ever needing LT care are a good rule of thumb for Ireland.

It would be great to find Irish-specific rates if they exist.

Casual empiricism alert. Only one of my grandparents dropped dead. The other three all needed home or nursing home care at some point.
 
This is from a 2017 ESRI report ( https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/RS67.pdf ):

•The demand for long-term and intermediate care resident places is projected to increase by between 40 to 54 per cent by 2030, from a level of 29,000 in 2015;

•The demand for long-term and intermediate care bed days is projected to increase by between 40 to 54 per cent by 2030, from a level of 10.6 million in 2015.

•The demand for home care packages is projected to increase by between 44 to 66 per cent by 2030, from a level of 15,300 in 2015;

•The demand for home help hours is projected to increase by between 38 to 54 per cent by 2030, from a level of 14.3 million in 2015.
 
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