"Only 5% of older people ever need nursing home care"

S

Saavy99

Registered User
Messages
690
Edit - I have separated this interesting point from another thread - Brendan

There's alot of talk about parents having to go into nursing homes but really in the grand scheme of things less than 5% of the elderly end up having to enter a nursing home. So they have an 80% chance of living on at home until their dying days
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Saavy99 said:
There's alot of talk about parents having to go into nursing homes but really in the grand scheme of things less than 5% of the elderly end up having to enter a nursing home. So they have an 80% chance of living on at home until their dying days
Click to expand...

This is surely not true. There are 31,000 people in nursing homes in Ireland. Assume a three-year stay, so about 10,000 entrants a year. About 30,000 people die every year, so on these assumptions about a third of people go to a nursing home.

A lot hinges on those assumptions about normal length of stay, but you would need an average stay of 20 years to get your 5% number. It is almost certainly a lot higher.
 
NoRegretsCoyote said:
This is surely not true. There are 31,000 people in nursing homes in Ireland. Assume a three-year stay, so about 10,000 entrants a year. About 30,000 people die every year, so on these assumptions about a third of people go to a nursing home.

A lot hinges on those assumptions about normal length of stay, but you would need an average stay of 20 years to get your 5% number. It is almost certainly a lot higher.
Click to expand...

"Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care" 25000 people currently in nursing homes in Ireland not 31000.

Residential Care - HSE.ie

Public and private residential care, nursing home inspsection reports, hospice care
www.hse.ie www.hse.ie
 
Last edited:
Saavy99 said:
"Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care" 25000 people currently in nursing homes in Ireland not 31000.

Residential Care - HSE.ie

Public and private residential care, nursing home inspsection reports, hospice care
www.hse.ie www.hse.ie
Click to expand...

I am simply quoting HIQA which would appear pretty authoritative:

As of 31 December 2018, there were 581 registered nursing homes in Ireland, home to over 31,250 people.
Click to expand...

Please square how there can be about 30,000 people in nursing homes, about 30,000 deaths annually, but only 5% of people ever needing residential or nursing home care..........


Regarding the OP's situation, there is a high likelihood of at least one of his parents needing nursing home care at some point.
 
Folks, I took this up with the HSE and asked them where that figure came from. After going back and forth a bit, here is their final answer:

Response: Our numbers on % in care is based on 2016 census data vs. numbers in care by Local Health Office.

I have suggested to thejournal.ie that they factcheck it.

www.thejournal.ie

Factcheck · TheJournal.ie

Read, share and shape the news on TheJournal.ie - Breaking Irish and International News
www.thejournal.ie www.thejournal.ie

Brendan
 
Last edited:
Surely its 30,000 or so people out of however many people are aged 75?+ (where do you draw the line) in Ireland. I would have thought without looking up an figures that this has to be in the ballpark of 5% No?
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Folks, I took this up with the HSE and asked them where that figure came from. After going back and forth a bit, here is their final answer:

Response: Our numbers on % in care is based on 2016 census data vs. numbers in care by Local Health Office.
Click to expand...

I think they've made this claim on the basis that 5% of over-65s are currently in care. Indeed 31k is close to 5% of the 720k people aged over 65.

But that is completely different from saying that 5% of people at some point in their life will need long-term care. The real figure is clearly much, much higher.
 
We can work out easily enough what percentage of the current population over 75 is in a nursing home.

But I am not sure how to work out the "ever" bit.

Would it be a retrospective calculation?

Look at all the deaths of people over the age of 75 in the last 5 years.

Then ask how many of them were ever in nursing homes?

Brendan
 
Assume that people go into nursing home and die there. This is not strictly true in all cases but a useful simplifying assumption

Find out average length of stay in years (a)

Find out population of nursing homes (b)

Find out annual deaths in the country (c)


The % of people who will every need nursing care is 100*((b/a)/c).


The over-65 or -75 population is not necessary
 
OK, to put figures on that.

Let's say that a is 2 years - the average length of stay in a nursing home

Let'say that b is 30,0000 the population of nursing homes

30,000/2 = 15,000 - the average number of people admitted to a nursing home each year.

The Health Service claim is : "Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care"

So it's not the percentage of the public, it's the percentage of older people - let's say those over 75
 
The share of the over 75 population is irrelevant!

Assume a 2-year stay, a 31k nursing population, and 31k annual deaths.

(31k/2)/31k=50%
 
I accept our family is not typical, but 5% as per the tread title does not sound right, I would have expected much higher.

Both my parents, both my parent in laws and 40% of my aunts and uncles ended up in nursing homes.

All were in their 80’s, some late 80’s going in and many lived or are still living way beyond the average stay which I think is 3 years.
 
Last edited:
Just shows you how government bodies can make things up , base it on a dubious calculation and get away with it because very few people especially journalists will query it because they are not numerate. So it should be "Only 5% of over 75s are in nursing homes in Ireland currently", how does that compare with other european countries, that would be a useful statistic.
 
numbers in care by Local health office, does that imply the 5% is based on those in public nursing homes as opposed to private ones?

Secondly, majority of elderly people I know over 75's are not in nursing homes. There is a much stronger focus on care at home. I know in my street I see 4 carers going in to houses with elderly people in them every evening.
 
NoRegretsCoyote said:
The share of the over 75 population is irrelevant!

Assume a 2-year stay, a 31k nursing population, and 31k annual deaths.

(31k/2)/31k=50%
Click to expand...

I don't get that at all?

Can you spell out your reasoning?

They are not saying 5% of the total population, they are saying 5% of the elderly. (although they don't define elderly)

So you have to eliminate anyone who died before they became elderly.

Brendan
 
Saavy99 said:
"Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care" 25000 people currently in nursing homes in Ireland not 31000.
Click to expand...
I would be inclined to agree with this figure. The OECD's statbank on long-term care resources shows that for Ireland in 2018 there were 22,236 persons aged 65+ receiving long-term care in 'institutions other than hospitals' (I presume these are care homes?) and this represents 3.3% of the total population aged 65+. https://stats.oecd.org/ . [The stats are under “Health” and then “Long-Term Care Resources and Utilisation”.
 
PMU said:
I would be inclined to agree with this figure. The OECD's statbank on long-term care resources shows that for Ireland in 2018 there were 22,236 persons aged 65+ receiving long-term care in 'institutions other than hospitals' (I presume these are care homes?) and this represents 3.3% of the total population aged 65+. https://stats.oecd.org/ . [The stats are under “Health” and then “Long-Term Care Resources and Utilisation”.
Click to expand...
Yeah but actual facts don't suit some people who try and spin everything.
 
According to the 2016 census there were 341,000 females aged 65 and over in ROI. If we arbitrarily accept this as "elderly" then 5% of this number is 17,000. Lets say this is an estimate of the number of women in nursing home care - a point prevalence of 5%.
But that is very different from saying that 5% "end up in nursing home care". For example, we could say that about 5% of under-20s are in 4th class primary school. But closer to 100% of under 20s either have or will have "ended up in 4th class". The lifetime prevalence for 4th class attendence is closer to 100% than 5%.

Edit: I see that there were 297,000 males aged 65 and over in 2016. So 638,000 people in total. 5% of this is 32,000. If we raised the ceiling for "elderly" above 65 this total would be lower.
 
Last edited:
Brendan Burgess said:
So you have to eliminate anyone who died before they became elderly.
Click to expand...

Something like 95% of people make it to 65. I am on mobile but will edit later if I'm much out.

The key term is the use of the word "ever".

Most of us will be elderly, all of us will die.

The issue is whether we will at any point ("ever") need LT Care.

You can't estimate that simply by taking a snapshot.

@Early Riser has explained it better than me.
 
Does it matter whether the figure is 25000 or 30000, the figure is low and it could be alot lower if the resources were provided to enable the vast majority live out their days at home. Personally I think it's a horrible model of care to cart elderly people off to a nursing home as soon as they can't adequately take care of themselves. It never used to be this way.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top