There's alot of talk about parents having to go into nursing homes but really in the grand scheme of things less than 5% of the elderly end up having to enter a nursing home. So they have an 80% chance of living on at home until their dying days
This is surely not true. There are 31,000 people in nursing homes in Ireland. Assume a three-year stay, so about 10,000 entrants a year. About 30,000 people die every year, so on these assumptions about a third of people go to a nursing home.
A lot hinges on those assumptions about normal length of stay, but you would need an average stay of 20 years to get your 5% number. It is almost certainly a lot higher.
"Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care" 25000 people currently in nursing homes in Ireland not 31000.
Residential Care - HSE.ie
Public and private residential care, nursing home inspsection reports, hospice carewww.hse.ie
As of 31 December 2018, there were 581 registered nursing homes in Ireland, home to over 31,250 people.
Folks, I took this up with the HSE and asked them where that figure came from. After going back and forth a bit, here is their final answer:
Response: Our numbers on % in care is based on 2016 census data vs. numbers in care by Local Health Office.
The share of the over 75 population is irrelevant!
Assume a 2-year stay, a 31k nursing population, and 31k annual deaths.
(31k/2)/31k=50%
I would be inclined to agree with this figure. The OECD's statbank on long-term care resources shows that for Ireland in 2018 there were 22,236 persons aged 65+ receiving long-term care in 'institutions other than hospitals' (I presume these are care homes?) and this represents 3.3% of the total population aged 65+. https://stats.oecd.org/ . [The stats are under “Health” and then “Long-Term Care Resources and Utilisation”."Only about 5% of all older people ever need residential or nursing home care" 25000 people currently in nursing homes in Ireland not 31000.
Yeah but actual facts don't suit some people who try and spin everything.I would be inclined to agree with this figure. The OECD's statbank on long-term care resources shows that for Ireland in 2018 there were 22,236 persons aged 65+ receiving long-term care in 'institutions other than hospitals' (I presume these are care homes?) and this represents 3.3% of the total population aged 65+. https://stats.oecd.org/ . [The stats are under “Health” and then “Long-Term Care Resources and Utilisation”.
So you have to eliminate anyone who died before they became elderly.
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