On Metro north line - likely increase in house value?

[bearishbull]

I live near the proposed griffith avenue stop(approx 5 min walk). I dont think my house will be worth any more in real terms in ten years time even if the griffith avenue stop happens(which it should now the route of metro north has been confirmed ).

 

[Buckshee]

But this is a discussion forum after all so its good to see it being discussed despite the fact that some people seem to think its a stupid question.

 

[ClubMan]

Who here said it was a stupid question?

 

[whathome]

But this is a discussion forum after all so its good to see it being discussed despite the fact that some people seem to think its a stupid question.

Nobody said it was a stupid question Buckshee. I think the problem some people had was the OP gave the current price of their house (€550,000) and wanted to know how much it would increase by and when that would happen. It's impossible to give an accurate answer to a question like that.

Here's a very exciting UK report:
"RAIL ACCESS AND HOUSE PRICES:AN EVALUATION OF THE WIDER BENEFITS OF TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS"

If anyone can stay awake long enough to find an answer, let us know
[broken link removed]

 

[hmmm]

Why do we assume that having what is in effect a train clattering through an area from 5/6am is going to increase the value? For the catchment area out of earshot maybe, but I wouldn't like it.

 

[Stiofan]

Good point Hmmm. I know darts can be loud enough and that on a clear night you can here the Dublin Belfast train rambling throu Killester a mile away. I also wouldn't go banking on a windfall until you see the capacity plans. wouldn't be much use to Drumcondra if its full leaving Swords!!!!

 

[whathome]

Why do we assume that having what is in effect a train clattering through an area from 5/6am is going to increase the value? For the catchment area out of earshot maybe, but I wouldn't like it.

You would have to be very close to be affected by noise from a light rail system. They're not going to be using big diesel powered locomotives! Prices may be adversely affected if the property was overlooked from the tracks. For the majority of home owners in the catchment area however, the Metro will improve their quality of life and value of property relative to areas with less effective public transport infrastructure.

 

[Joe Nonety]

Maybe the OP's house will be like Brad Pitt and Gwyneth Paltrow's characters' place in Seven. So to get the best price, look up the metro timetable and only allow viewings in between trains, although there is a huge dependecy on it running on time!

 

[BritLad]

Well you will have a Unique Selling Point compared to other houses that distance from the city centre - a straightforward commute by train to the centre which is more attractive than a drive and will make the house more attractive to other similar porperties with more awkward commutes....

...but also look at how many apartments are being built in the docklands area, and people may choose to avoid the commute to the centre by living IN the centre.

In London's ubburbs being with 15-20mins walk of a Tube station is a big + and house prices reflect that.

 

[KarlK]

I live along the route of the proposed Metro north line, within easy walking distance of the stop at DCU.

Any estimate as to how this would increase the value of my house? (House is currently worth around €550,000).

I would expect your house to gain around 10-15% relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line.
Factors that would help your house keep a high relative value include:

• traffic congestion: the more the better
• booming economy: more jobs means more demand for housing
• high oil prices
• carbon taxes, pay as you go car tax & insurance etc
• network effect as other lines are built

The last point is that as more luas and rail is added to the city, the public transport network becomes more feasible overall. If you can reasonably complete a lot of trips (not just into town) by train, then living near the line is a real boon. In London, there is a very clear link between distance from tube station and house price.

The gains in house prices along the line will likely far exceed the project budget.

I would pay considerably more for a house with a good rail link to the city as it might save me buying a second car, could enable me to get to work every day and would allow me to have a night on the town with my mates and get home without a taxi. I use the airport a lot and as the rail links get better in town it will make using the train for intercity journeys more feasible.

When would any increase be reflected in the value? (e.g. from the announcement of the route or only when the line is up and running?)

Efficient market hypothesis would say that the price of your house would reflect the benefit from the train line as soon as it was announced, but would discount it somewhat as it won't be running for the next 4 years. With the Luas, I don't think prices really changed that much until the line was built as nobody expected it to work so well (the green line anyway). One girl in Dundrum told me she feels she have moved into an inner suburb from an outer suburb since it was built. So I guess the market has copped this now.

 

[robd]

I would expect your house to gain around 10-15% relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line.
Factors that would help your house keep a high relative value include

Given current over valuation, occupancy, new build rates and rising interest rates I would expect your house to lose 10-15% less relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line.

Mind you I would also (as stated by a previous poster) question what % of houses won't be on a Luas, Dart or Metro after Transport21.

 

[plaudit]

Remember that railways only go more or less in a straight line. bus routes can get you to new places straight away while it might take 20 years to get a train in place. For example Tallaght shopping centre or Dublin airport. The day they opened a bus route could be put in place from the city centre, but it can take decades to get a train line there. Who's to say in 20 years time the places people want to go won't have a train line connected to them?

Eventually everywhere will be close to a QBC and/or train and everything will be just one QBC/Luas/Metro/Dart change from your home.

 

[KarlK]

Given current over valuation, occupancy, new build rates and rising interest rates I would expect your house to lose 10-15% less relative to a similar house in a similar suburb not on the line.

Same thing, we can only talk about relative prices.

Mind you I would also (as stated by a previous poster) question what % of houses won't be on a Luas, Dart or Metro after Transport21.

A very high % will be outside an acceptable walk, say 12 minutes or 1km radius. To find out, draw 1km radius circles around the proposed stations on a map of Dublin.

Remember that railways only go more or less in a straight line. bus routes can get you to new places straight away while it might take 20 years to get a train in place. For example Tallaght shopping centre or Dublin airport. The day they opened a bus route could be put in place from the city centre, but it can take decades to get a train line there. Who's to say in 20 years time the places people want to go won't have a train line connected to them?

Eventually everywhere will be close to a QBC and/or train and everything will be just one QBC/Luas/Metro/Dart change from your home.

Buses are far less attractive to comuters than trains. Being on a bus route adds nothing to your house price in London as far as I know. Main problems with buses: unpredictable frequency outside of peak hour. Extremely slow (less than walking speed) within the city centre. Very long dwell times due to single door operation/driver taking fares. Double the density of stops compared to light rail (slower journey). No electronic display to show time of next bus at stops despite Dublin Bus working on this for a decade. Waiting for a bus with no idea when/if it will arrive is stressful. Many of these problems could be solved by DB but will they? The city centre speed is the worst unsolvable problem. Even aircoach has to tell passengers to allow an hour and twenty minutes to get from Stillorgan to the airport (15 km/h). Meanwhile the green luas can manage 25km/h and the metro will run at 35km/h.

The Stillorgan/N11 QBC works well mostly as there are two additional lanes on each carriageway, but the other QBCs have had little success. The N11 QBC with 50 full double decker buses per hour at the morning peak is popular with commuters; what will happen when the many huge apartment complexes on either side are complete is anyone's guess. The bus lane is already full with buses, taxis, private coaches, motorcycles etc.

So being near a railway station will be a big plus. Being within 5 minutes walk (350m) is worth more than 12 minutes (see London again)

 

[Arthur Daley]

A metro/luas blows away all these QBC's/bus routes for anyone who actually uses the bus. Dublin needs about 6 more luas/metro lines to compare with any other modern European city. There will still be huge swathes of greater Dublin miles from proper public transport even by 2012 once the Metro North is built. As for prices I agree that the luas has taught us that the full benefit of the service isn't factored into property prices until the line is there for people to see and use.

 

[DonKing]

A metro/luas blows away all these QBC's/bus routes for anyone who actually uses the bus. Dublin needs about 6 more luas/metro lines to compare with any other modern European city. There will still be huge swathes of greater Dublin miles from proper public transport even by 2012 once the Metro North is built. As for prices I agree that the luas has taught us that the full benefit of the service isn't factored into property prices until the line is there for people to see and use.

I second this. I don't normally use buses that often but we spent over 45 mins waiting for the 25A bus in Lucan when we and a couple of friends went out to dinner in the City centre before Christmas. The 25A runs for some parts on a QBC.

Hopefully when the Adamstown station opens and the Kildare line is upgraded we will have a reliable frequent method of public transport to the City. I would imagine when the station opens with a decent train service then it could only have a positive effect on the demand for houses in my area (I think I'll be about 8minutes walk away).