McWilliams wrong on French Election

My main purpose in opening this thread was to have a good McWilliams bashing, instead it is a good guy like Macron who is getting the bashing. Ah well, I suppose McW is one of our own, xenophobia is alive and well in AAM:(
 
McWilliams is a national institution. He is to now what U2 was to the mid 1980's. God bless him (unless such sentiment breaches the Blasphemy law).
 
It's xenophobic to question Macron :rolleyes:

Purple,
I'm afraid that without the UK to hold our hand and with a re-energised French leader who seems determined to go after corporation tax as part of his overall strongly pro-european agenda, we could be in big bother here. A re-elected Merkel and a nasty scrap over Brexit will see an emboldened EU push harder for much stronger integration, some of which could be very hard to swallow. But Paddy always takes his EU medicine, sometimes he just has to be told twice!

I do not expect the Irish govt to stand strong on tax for too long. They'll claim some sort of a pyrrhic victory from a debt write-down/renegotiation etc. But they will give in.

Thats my pessimistic take on the whole thing :(
 
Delboy said:
Purple,
I'm afraid that without the UK to hold our hand and with a re-energised French leader who seems determined to go after corporation tax as part of his overall strongly pro-european agenda, we could be in big bother here. A re-elected Merkel and a nasty scrap over Brexit will see an emboldened EU push harder for much stronger integration, some of which could be very hard to swallow. But Paddy always takes his EU medicine, sometimes he just has to be told twice!

I do not expect the Irish govt to stand strong on tax for too long. They'll claim some sort of a pyrrhic victory from a debt write-down/renegotiation etc. But they will give in.

Thats my pessimistic take on the whole thing :(
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Delboy, the Duke has hijacked your profile!
Either way, you both could be right :D
 
I welcome Macron's victory - but it's far too soon to canonise him.

The truth is that it was a pretty motley crew that presented itself to the French electorate. Four main candidates - a nutter from the far left, a nutter from the far right, a Haughey-esque centre-right boyo and Macron. The most common sentiment that has been expressed to me by mes amis francais is that Mr. Macron was the least objectionable of the four. As one pal put it - nous avons évité le pire, le désastre certain mais avec quoi? The frog-eaters (term of endearment) that I've been chatting to tell me that they are getting bien fatigués of having to constantly vote against someone rather than for someone!!
 
Isn't this French system for electing a Presie somewhat flawed? Ok, De G recognised that first past the post would be Russian roulette but where did he get the idea of first two past the post into a second round? The French nearly had a run off between a Mad Marxist and a Rabid Racist and however that worked out it certainly would not have been a democratic representation of France as a whole.

De G should simply have copied Paddy and had a process of elimination by STV in one round. The extremes are very non transfer friendly. This system would without any risk have delivered either Macron or Fillon depending, ironically, on whether it was the MM that was eliminated first or the RR.

But what about this for a supreme irony? The French with their flawed system have put a very sane good guy in the Elysee. We with our clever STV system have put a right looney tune in the Aras:eek:

The US system of second past the post wins is not the answer.
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
Read this piece

Written only 70 days ago this typical piece by McWilliams has been exposed for the hubris it was.

Ok He was careful not actually to predict a Le Pen victory but we can be quite sure that if such had happened He would be very quick to tell us that He warned us. See how in the piece He has twisted what was merely a similar rant about a potential Trump win into how prescient He was to predict that outcome. Similarly on Brexit. In fact one is left with the impression, which I am sure He actually harbours, that He foresaw all of recent political developments just as He foresaw the housing bust 6 years ahead of everyone else. I do hope that no one followed His advice and printed those punts.

Anyway, good to see the good guys winning for a change and it is even sweeter that the Duke had a little punt at 10/1 against Macron exceeding 65% of the vote:)
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LOL'd with all the Capital H's :)
 
There were a fair number of French voters who said they were not voting for Macron, they were voting against Le Pen. He has nowhere near the level of support the results indicate. It's a repeat of the US elections, with a choice between Nope and Noper.
 
Seagull said:
There were a fair number of French voters who said they were not voting for Macron, they were voting against Le Pen. He has nowhere near the level of support the results indicate. It's a repeat of the US elections, with a choice between Nope and Noper.
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Yes that is in a sense true. I suppose the "true" level of support is given by his first round score of 23% and even that can be seen as a rejection of RR, MM and Fillon the Fiddler.

But isn't there always some aspect of "keep the others out" in any vote. Take the Duke. I tend to vote FG (sorry fans:oops:) but most deffo not coz I hugely support them but coz they are the best of a bad lot.

Incidentally I am working on a thesis entitled "The Political Leanings of AAM Contributors", aka PLAAM. I will start with the contributors to this thread and study some of their recent efforts. The scale will be calibrated to the Duke having a perfect 0. Pinko points will be positive and vice versa. It will be mainly calibrated to economic rather than social views. For example: "Burn the Bondholders" would be good for 8 Pinko points whilst letting women murder their 39 week offspring would only rate 1.

Some examples who have already been subject to the Pinkometer are as follows:

Your average FF politician: +4
Your average FGer +2
Average shinner: +8
Fintan O'Toole: +10
Kevin Myers: -6
Donald Trump: -8
Macron: 0
 
Firefly said:
That's great Duke. Busy at work today I see :p
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Well I ain't like that other Duke who thinks retirement age should be 96, just think if that guy has been paying into his pension plan for 70 years, say, he will have a fairly comfortable retirement :)

Results so far (in order of appearance)
Delboy +6
Purple -4
Leo -2
Dan Murray *
Ceist Beag +3
cremeegg 0
Firefly 0

* Pinkometer malfunctioned - detecting gambits and other malware designed to hide true rating

Appeals process: If you wish to appeal your rating just make a post and indicate evidence of earlier post that the Pinkometer might have missed
 
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Too many people are getting too many things for nothing. Grants should be cut. Buses should be privatised and public sector workers should pay more for their pensions. How's my rating now? :p

PS: only kidding about the grants
 
Firefly said:
Too many people are getting too many things for nothing. Grants should be cut. Buses should be privatised and public sector workers should pay more for their pensions. How's my rating now? :p

PS: only kidding about the grants
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Firefly, that would have been a minimum -10 except the PS earned you one pinko point. However, you have been reported to the stewards for such in and out running.:cool:
 
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Thanks Duke, I'll discuss this with my therapist.
I presume my socially liberal views and general godlessness brought me back toward the center.

One thing; As we write from left to right (1,2,3, etc) the minus numbers usually go on the left. Therefore I question your ranking system... other than that well done.

Have you thought about ranking our Fearless Leader or is that heresy?
 
Purple said:
Thanks Duke, I'll discuss this with my therapist.
I presume my socially liberal views and general godlessness brought me back toward the center.

One thing; As we write from left to right (1,2,3, etc) the minus numbers usually go on the left. Therefore I question your ranking system... other than that well done.

Have you thought about ranking our Fearless Leader or is that heresy?
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Purple I believe the ranking originated with the Chinese so your point on the order may be moot. Yes I have recognised your pinko tendencies on the social front but as explained I do not give social views a very heavy weighting.

The Boss is out and out minimum -10, an example for everyone who wants to cut down on pinko points. His view that PRSI should be financed at the individual level is good enuff for -5 points in its own right.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Purple I believe the ranking originated with the Chinese so your point on the order may be moot.
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Yes, I suspected that may be the case.
Duke of Marmalade said:
Yes I have recognised your pinko tendencies on the social front but as explained I do not give social views a very heavy weighting.
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Quite right too.

Duke of Marmalade said:
The Boss is out and out minimum -10, an example for everyone who wants to cut down on pinko points. His view that PRSI should be financed at the individual level is good enuff for -5 points in its own right.
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Yes, anyone who thinks we shouldn't get things we can't afford and that we shouldn't mortgage our children's future is obviously a rabid rightwing lunatic.
 
You obviously have me pretty well categorised Duke if you have me pretty much equal distance apart from Myers and O'Toole! :D
 
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