Market trends - stock market

ClubMan said:
I think that what @Brendan Burgess's meant with his slightly facetious comment was that nobody can time/predict the markets or successfully pick "winning" stocks in order to significantly outperform the market. As the cliché goes, all things being equal (e.g. appropriate diversified investment in reputable assets), it's time in the market not timing the market that matters.
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That’s great but I didn’t argue otherwise
 
Gordon Gekko said:
“I’ve a quarter of my portfolio in Gilts”

Incredible stuff, unless the poster lives in the UK.

This thread had shades of “I had a rash on my leg, I googled it, figured out that I had Tanzanian Death Fever, and amputated my leg. How can I help you by sharing my wisdom and experience? Which is just as valid as Dr Sam McConkey’s infectious disease credentials because we’re all entitled to our opinions and they’re all equally valid!”
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Yes , Gilts are such outlandish niche securities, the UK akin to Argentina, I bought the ten year Gilts when Liz Truss was PM and yield was 4.30 %, the pound is up several percent against the euro since last October and im not only in individual stocks , I’ve invested in two investment trusts which track the S+P and the main big tech mega caps , I’m marginally ahead of the overall market right now

I haven’t stuck all in some obscure micro cap so let’s please avoid the sensationalist and high handed replies
 
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galway_blow_in said:
That’s great but I didn’t argue otherwise
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Your original post definitely gives the impression that you're trying to time the market.
galway_blow_in said:
When you see how high bond yields have gone, the market is still very strong,however I heard a contributor on CNBC say on Friday that if you look at the Russell 3000 ( which covers almost all tradable equities large and small cap in the USA ) , most companies are apparently below the price traded last October when the market is generally perceived to have put in a bottom?

I’m not bearish or bullish per say and I’ve a quarter of my portfolio now in ten year Gilts but when you observe how weak much of the market has been this past perceived strong year , a breakdown in the leaders would likely quickly lead to another bear market

I realise it’s often a relatively small number of companies that overwhelmingly drive market gains and at the end of the day none of us know future directions but it’s fun to chin wag about general activity?
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As does the idea of moving into, say, gilts or bonds until the market bottoms out and it's time to buy. Complete mug's game that will almost certainly incur losses - opportunity if not actual.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi Gordon

I agree with you that an investor's opinion based on their short term experience is not as valid as the opinions based on years of research which show that one cannot outperform the market and trying to do so is a mug's game.

But it's a very common form of thinking. look at all the analysis from stockbrokers and journalists. Look at all the actively managed funds. It's wrong, but it's very common.

It's too big a leap to associate this with Brexit or Trump.

Brendan
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You frequently suggest buying around twenty individual stocks as opposed to “ buying the market “

Claiming “ some of the twenty stocks might even go to zero but enough will do fine and some great “
 
ClubMan said:
Your original post definitely gives the impression that you're trying to time the market.

As does the idea of moving into, say, gilts or bonds until the market bottoms out and it's time to buy. Complete mug's game that will almost certainly incur losses - opportunity if not actual.
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No , I didn’t say I was attempting to time anything , that’s just you’re own interpretation
 
Gordon Gekko said:
Hi Brendan,

It’s the particular form of thinking that I’m referring to. The ‘public has had enough of experts’ view. ‘Having a go’ at managing one’s own portfolio is analagous to self-diagnosing diseases via Google. It’s madness. My view or Joe Sod’s view is not as valid or valuable as, say, the Chief Investment Officer at Goldman Sachs.

All the best,

Gordon
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Gordon

There really is no comparison

I was that expert. I was a newly qualified accountant.. I could read a set of accounts. I understood business. Hadn't I passed exams on investment?

Of course I could make money picking shares. And I did pick some winners due to my skill. A few losers, but that was just bad luck

It's so counterintuitive for Galway blow in and others that it's very hard for them to accept that they simply can't outguess the market. he will in time, but it will take some time.

I trust experts on medicine and most issues. But the market outperforms the experts when it comes to investing.

That took a long time to dawn on me and it takes a long time for others as well.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Yes.

It's a strange experience.

Because I am still 75% in equities, I want to see the stock market go up. But there is a tinge of regret that I sold out.

But overall, I don't really worry too much about whether the market is overvalued because I have moved some of it to cash.

Brendan
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Brendan I remember you posted this in another thread beginning of 2021 where I think you sold out 25% of your shares because you considered that the market was overvalued end of 2020, it was after the big recovery in second half of 2020 although I was very surprised by your admission then. I presume you now realize that this was a mistake, did you reinvest this back into the stock market afterwards?
 
.......and then there was the shorting of a crypto currency.......to $3000. Brendan, I would call that trying to time the market?

Also, the fill your boots comment on the bank shares....just before they became practically worthless.

You have often stated that you are a holder of Ryanair shares.....In December of 2016 these were priced at €14.89. Today's price is €14.41. No dividend paid in 5 years. Many people have bought and sold these on dips and rises and made money. How are you doing?

Brendan you can't really lecture people here with your track record ....
 
Hi Joe

I remember at the time that I felt that the level of uncertainty was such that it was possible that there was one of the very unusual situations where the market was way out of synch. So I took 25% of my money off the table. I still stayed 75% invested. it was a sort of hedging.

I don't think that I would ever go 100% out of the market.

As it happens, I had later uses for the money outside the market, so no, I did not go back in. In fact, I have needed further money since, and sold a small bit more.

Brendan
 
TrundleAlong said:
Also, the fill your boots comment on the bank shares....just before they became practically worthless.
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Except that I said "fill your boots with bank and other shares." The full transcript and the subsequent performance is here

Key Post - What Brendan Burgess has actually said about property, prices and borrowing

Many people are claiming that I am a “Vested Interest” who cheered on the property bubble. Most of the quotes are selective and out of context. They ignore the frequent comments I have made about house prices falling. This very long thread is an effort to set the record straight. In...
www.askaboutmoney.com
 
I agree. Taking 25% of one’s money isn’t as much of a big binary call as cashing in completely.

The real own goal is something like cashing-in at the Covid low and then missing the recovery.

If you cash-in after the horse has bolted, it’s very difficult psychologically to get back in at materially higher levels.

All of this is why I don’t check my portfolio.
 
It’s unfortunate that some feel the need to light on other contributors and heap scorn on what are very mundane opinions and choices, no one here is describing having stuck everything in a Brazilian Brewery or a South African diamond company

The reference I made to “ The guy on CNBC “ ( it wasn’t Jim Crammer so I don’t know anyone else’s name) was about how the market since the alleged recent low has been driven by an unusually small number of companies, I realise most gains tend to come from a select group but the bulk of the market is quite weak , I’ve no intention of selling, nor do I have a clue if we double within a few years from here or halve . I’m merely making conversation, hardly a capita offence
 
galway_blow_in said:
It’s unfortunate that some feel the need to light on other contributors and heap scorn on what are very mundane opinions and choices, no one here is describing having stuck everything in a Brazilian Brewery or a South African diamond company

The reference I made to “ The guy on CNBC “ ( it wasn’t Jim Crammer so I don’t know anyone else’s name) was about how the market since the alleged recent low has been driven by an unusually small number of companies, I realise most gains tend to come from a select group but the bulk of the market is quite weak , I’ve no intention of selling, nor do I have a clue if we double within a few years from here or halve . I’m merely making conversation, hardly a capita offence
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The site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?
 
Gordon Gekko said:
The site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?
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Gordon Gekko said:
The site’s called Askaboutmoney. Are posters who understand markets supposed to say nothing when people come along and talk about doing the financial equivalent of taking out a baseball bat and beating oneself to a pulp?
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Don’t be so hysterically sensationalist, you don’t even believe the nonsense you’re spouting
 
ClubMan said:
Wow. A mind reader too?
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Only a daft gimp accuses someone who is beating the market of “ beating themselves to a pulp with a bat “ , that or it’s someone engaging in sensationalism designed to gain attention from their bar buddies , either way they are spouting blather but sure that’s how it is round here , the tiny permanent clique sit around making snide comments at anyone not in their little circle jerk and any sort of turd comment apparently smells of roses by their fellow inner clique members

Take you’re pick ?
 
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