Longest Bull Market in History

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Sarenco said:
There has not been a 20% plus draw down to the close of any trading day for well over 10 years. That has never happened before.
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if you read the general thrust of my post, i explained that we are in uncharted territory because of zero and negative interest rates, that has also never happened before, not in Keynes time not in Adam smiths time, there have never been negative interest rates before. Warren Buffett went into a lot of detail in discussing this in his interview on Monday. As for bonds Buffet said (with respect to US treasuries which still have a yield) why would you lend to the government money for 30 years at 1% when their stated objective is an inflation target of 2%, this is obviously amplified in the eurozone where there are negative interest rates.
Its only a discussion everyones opinion is valid.
 
joe sod said:
why would you lend to the government money for 30 years at 1%
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US 30 year treasury bond are yielding well above 1%, so yes, you would be mad to lend at 1%.

They've performed very well in the last 2 weeks.

Interestingly, inflation protected bonds in US have a slightly positive yield, so the market is inferring that they expect inflation of c. 1.5% despite the stated target.
 
Sarenco said:
I’ve no idea why you insist on re-interpreting this thread.
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Every thread gets re-interpreted , most people excluding myself have also re-interpreted it in accordance with their own circumstances, just because you might have started a thread does not give you ownership or the right to police what is discussed. I have been putting the bull markets in the context of the global stock markets , and the most important context is the unprecedented zero and negative interest rates world wide. If people are concerned about an "unprecedented" length of a US bull market in US stocks ,which I have also put in context because of the 3 rapid sell offs in that period and ,all of these felt like the end of the bull market you just have to look at old threads on this site for those periods.

This could very well be proper bear market that you are craving but there is no safety in negative yielding bonds ,only for very short periods, its obvious that the buyers of these bonds do not intend to hold them to maturity, any hint of an interest rate hike and these will crash, there will be a rush to sell these , Warren buffet said this in his interview although not so explicitely
 
@joe sod

You are obviously entitled to your own opinions but you are not entitled to your own facts.

You cannot back up your argument that the original post was not accurate.

Previous corrections may well have “felt” like the end of the bull market but history proved otherwise.

The past week demonstrated in spades why bonds - even negative yielding bonds - still have a place in a well constructed investment portfolio.
 
I think it will but only if the Oil spat is resolved quickly. The impact on US jobs of a low oil price is significant given the indebtedness and high costs associated with fracking.
 
Well, the longest bull market in history has just celebrated its 11th anniversary.

The S&P500 has enjoyed an unprecedented 11 years without a drawdown of 20% or more at any close from a previous market high.

It’s worth bearing in mind that historically bear markets have happened roughly every 3.5 years, which makes the current bull market so extraordinary.

It also puts the correction over the last couple of weeks into perspective.
 

I rarely look at the markets but had a look with the news today , whats interesting to me is even with this big drop today when you draw a line backwards you are only going back to 2018-2019 levels . I have a lump sum which I have transferred to my brokerage account , I have been waiting to see a day of a very large correction since I started investing where I could throw some money in but I have to say the market would have to fall a lot more for me to get involved with this lump sum. It doesn't feel value when your only going back to 2018 levels or so and then you wonder what happened between 2018 and now to justify the price rise.

Bring on the bear market!

*PS I am not trying to time the market , I invest every couple of months in predetermined investment trusts regardless of market conditions , the money I have set aside is excess cash that I keep for opportunities in arbitrage should they arise.
 
today was a truly wretched day , i dumped the irish bank i bought ten days ago after a few trading days as it barely rose during last mondays strong rally , my ninety euro gain looks fantastic now considering how irish markets have sunk , my energy stock is down a whopping 25% but its a relatively small part of my overall portfolio and the dividend is 8% , the two american stocks i bought are down but both are huge mega caps and im confident they will come good

the bulk of my holdings ive held since december 2018 but it still hurts to see such a drastic reduction in ones equity holdings in the space of a little over a month .

hoping to buy a house within two years assuming we sell our current dwelling , i thought having a third of ones savings in the equity markets was relatively conservative , wont ruin our plans but in hindsight i might have been better going to cash after seeing such strong gains in 2019
 
A bear market is certain. Fella your spot on the current drop only equates to going back to 2018 levels. I can easily see a 20k Dow just as Nourini forecast and God help us all if as I fear this virus will impact hugely. If the numbers explode 15k Dow is on the cards. Must go and watch Claire Byrne at 10.30 p.m and fear is gripping or about to grip the country I'm sorry to say.
 
Daddy Ireland said:
Must go and watch Claire Byrne at 10.30 p.m and fear is gripping or about to grip the country I'm sorry to say.
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more misery porn, even before the corona virus they always find some misery to focus on. I think people have become too focussed on negative stuff and exaggerating it rather than positive stuff. I think they will have a handle on the corona virus within a few weeks, I think it could peak in Italy fairly soon.
 

good to know we are nearly over the worst of it
 
I’m not sure we know how badly it will impact us here in Ireland but I’m certain that we’re nowhere near over the worst of it. This has the potential to kill our people and severely disrupt our way of life. Until we see cases falling, treatment rates rising in effectiveness and fewer people dying, we simply don’t know how big the impact will be.

Let’s hope that by all of us doing our best to follow the guidelines, we minimize the impact.
 
A lot of cash after selling a property year and a half ago. Promised myself over the past year to invest in 3 companies that I have watched for a number of years once a 30% or more of a correction came. Well that was today.
Starting tomorrow and probably over 6-8 week period will invest away. Do not need the money for a number of years.
Nervy a little but sure it will be okay over 5-10 yrs.
 
yes it was killed by a virus that was "Made in China" how apt. Im surprised by it all to be honest it came totally out of the blue. But then why panic it doesn't really make any difference just anyone invested in equities is now 20% or more poorer than they were a few weeks ago. You just have to be able to deal with that, you dont actually have to do anything just wait for the next bus, (thats if the bus is still running)
 
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