Longest Bull Market in History

Status
Not open for further replies.
If you buy a long term bond today yielding 1% you are taking a huge gamble that interest rates will stay below this for the 30 years of the bond to maturity, if interest rates rise much above 1% in that 30 years you will suffer capital loss if you sell the bond before maturity.
Therefore in that scenario the only game in town is the stock market, however if interest rates were at 3 or 4% then maybe he would be interested in bonds and stocks would have a higher threshold in comparison.
Yes but that would dictate that supply and demand would be pushing up stock prices to equally artificial heights. Say the market prices stocks to give an expected yield of 2% i.e. twice what you can get on bonds. Then interest rates revert to normal levels like say 4%, the stock market would then want maybe 8% to compensate for the risk versus bonds. That would entail a fall to 25% of current levels.
 
I don't get the obsession with Buffet either I don't even think theres enough stats to say he has any skill , he probably got lucky very early and is living off that success.

i agree he has a bit of a cult following , the yearly gathering in omaha is testament to that, but he is highly unconventional personality wise which explains the whole omaha jamboree. i suppose it is that personality that explains some of why he is the worlds richest investor (there are richer men in the world but not solely from investing capital). He is able to stand outside of current investing fashions most notably at the end of the 90s for years ignoring technology stocks and getting slated for it, Berkshire fell in value in 1998 and 1999 when the Dow was soaring on the back of technology stocks. So he was under big pressure then to get on board that but he resisted.
It is true that he got lucky which he admits himself ,being born in America where his skills could be utilised rather than in a poor war torn country. Also he was investing during some of the biggest stock market bull markets ever in 1950s 60s and 1980s 90s. I doubt he would have done so well starting out in year 2000
 
Buffett makes a lot of sense in describing his investing philosophy over the years. He also admits openly to getting stuff wrong e.g. missing out on the tech boom because he didn’t understand it. That’s changed with his investment in Apple but how much of that was down to Todd Combs?

A read of the annual shareholder letter shows that much of his wealth is determined by substantial long-term investments in blue chips like Amex and Coke.

To my mind, this long-term view makes sense and avoids a lot of head wrecking nonsense.
 
I have not sold anything but in hindsight should have

Would anyone seriously prefer hold when your holdings now stand a serious chance of being cut in half?

Guess I'm asking if some events warrant a very different reaction?
 
  • Like
Reactions: jim
I have not sold anything but in hindsight should have
Many of the experts on AAM have suggested over the years that you invest in a basket of shares, not in individual stocks. Sit back and wait. Then over a period of years the stockmarket will do it's thing and you will average out in profit. I certainly would not like if my basket of shares that I had invested in had any travel related shares...airlines....travel companies.... cruise ship owners......hotel chains.....etc. I would have hoped that the experts managing these funds would have pulled these before the latest events unfolded.
However I have often wondered how actively these funds are managed and do the suits schedule meetings to have meetings. Better to manage these things yourself....the old saying.....if you are making a profit you are not making a loss......
 
I have not sold anything but in hindsight should have

Would anyone seriously prefer hold when your holdings now stand a serious chance of being cut in half?

Guess I'm asking if some events warrant a very different reaction?

Well its just hard to predict for me , lets say day 1 markets drop 3% do I take my money out now ? I've seen days like this before and then day 2 its back to normal or up again , selling everything also gives rise to a CGT event . If I don't sell on day 1 then day 2 comes along another 3-4% wiped off its the same thing you probably start to do think the sell off is an overreaction . Before you know it its day 5 or something and you've lost 25% but it's hard to predict the bottom and if you sell around day 4-5 you could end up watching the markets rise dramatically on day 6.

It's all just a guessing game that I don't want to get involved in , I think if you invest regualary you just have to accept that at certain times in your investment career you are going to be buying cheap and other times you are paying a premium. Without stock market volitily there would be no returns so we need these corrections , its easy in hindsight to think it was obvious the markets would drop because of this coronavirus but theres been other times that you would expect the market to drop and its risen but we don't remember these times.

Unless your a trader I think that buy and hold is the best bet for the average joe.
 
Many of the experts on AAM have suggested over the years that you invest in a basket of shares, not in individual stocks. Sit back and wait. Then over a period of years the stockmarket will do it's thing and you will average out in profit. I certainly would not like if my basket of shares that I had invested in had any travel related shares...airlines....travel companies.... cruise ship owners......hotel chains.....etc. I would have hoped that the experts managing these funds would have pulled these before the latest events unfolded.
However I have often wondered how actively these funds are managed and do the suits schedule meetings to have meetings. Better to manage these things yourself....the old saying.....if you are making a profit you are not making a loss......

I've no airline or travel shares thankfully
 
Well its just hard to predict for me , lets say day 1 markets drop 3% do I take my money out now ? I've seen days like this before and then day 2 its back to normal or up again , selling everything also gives rise to a CGT event . If I don't sell on day 1 then day 2 comes along another 3-4% wiped off its the same thing you probably start to do think the sell off is an overreaction . Before you know it its day 5 or something and you've lost 25% but it's hard to predict the bottom and if you sell around day 4-5 you could end up watching the markets rise dramatically on day 6.

It's all just a guessing game that I don't want to get involved in , I think if you invest regualary you just have to accept that at certain times in your investment career you are going to be buying cheap and other times you are paying a premium. Without stock market volitily there would be no returns so we need these corrections , its easy in hindsight to think it was obvious the markets would drop because of this coronavirus but theres been other times that you would expect the market to drop and its risen but we don't remember these times.

Unless your a trader I think that buy and hold is the best bet for the average joe.

I'm not going to sell now, not like i had most of my savings in equities anyway, I've twice as much in my current account as in stocks, going from 53k the day before the Irish general election to 45 k today is a pretty brutal drop however

Could go much lower too, bought an energy company this morning which is now yielding over 8% now, down 35% and no dividend cut since WW2, biggest company on the ftse

Opportunities exist at times like this too and oil was already battered prior to this
 
I'm not going to sell now, not like i had most of my savings in equities anyway, I've twice as much in my current account as in stocks, going from 53k the day before the Irish general election to 45 k today is a pretty brutal drop however

Could go much lower too, bought an energy company this morning which is now yielding over 8% now, down 35% and no dividend cut since WW2, biggest company on the ftse

Opportunities exist at times like this too and oil was already battered prior to this

If you sold everything at 53k would you have walked away with more than 45k after CGT?
If I sold everything I would have a very large CGT bill so its not all profit that is lost . The other problem is what the hell do I do with the large amount I have invested , I Could keep it in stockbroker account and wait but banks are useless and buy to let is a disaster so there is not much more option wise .
 
If you sold everything at 53k would you have walked away with more than 45k after CGT?
If I sold everything I would have a very large CGT bill so its not all profit that is lost . The other problem is what the hell do I do with the large amount I have invested , I Could keep it in stockbroker account and wait but banks are useless and buy to let is a disaster so there is not much more option wise .

My sentiments exactly. Moreover, when markets recover and the sellers jump back, you miss the rally. It's impossible to predict, emotionally draining and mentally wearing.
 
Don’t panic. It’s not money it’s sentiment. Think will anyone even remember this virus next year or in 5 yrs.
 
Half a loaf is better than no loaf at all. Take your profit, smaller as it may be than you originally had. You will feel better for it.

I'm not selling, just wanted to pose a question about the potentially unique situation facing us
 
Last edited:
I even bought a particular Irish financial this morning, BV less than half, a country needs a banking system and the price this morning was at 2012 levels almost
More power to you. I would have waited and had a look on Monday. A lot of people take their profits on a Friday (maybe not this Friday) and head off to the pub also mindful that there is likely to be more negative press over the weekend than positive press.

I am tracking two particular shares at the moment. One a pharma and the other a cement company. I have been watching the live trades and there are people making money on the intraday trades even in this climate.

In my case I have to pay .5% costs on buying, .5% costs in stamp duty, .5% costs in selling on UK trades but 1% stamp duty on Irish trades. My normal trade is about £95k so I have to make circa £1300 or €1800 before I make a penny for myself. It is possible but requires balls of steel at the moment. Some are doing it though.
I will have a look on Monday.
 
More power to you. I would have waited and had a look on Monday. A lot of people take their profits on a Friday (maybe not this Friday) and head off to the pub also mindful that there is likely to be more negative press over the weekend than positive press.

I am tracking two particular shares at the moment. One a pharma and the other a cement company. I have been watching the live trades and there are people making money on the intraday trades even in this climate.

In my case I have to pay .5% costs on buying, .5% costs in stamp duty, .5% costs in selling on UK trades but 1% stamp duty on Irish trades. My normal trade is about £95k so I have to make circa £1300 or €1800 before I make a penny for myself. It is possible but requires balls of steel at the moment. Some are doing it though.
I will have a look on Monday.

I'm looking at a company with a mouse for an emblem when the U. S market opens, moved 10 k into my account yesterday as i believe the selling is overdone, bought the biggest company on the FTSE first thing this morning and the Irish Bank a little later

I'll have the ten grand spent by evening, have had the same portfolio for over a year so now is a good time to add some more ( i hope)

I won't touch airlines however, too risky
 
Looking like this correction has a bit to go yet,sometimes it's a case of one in the hand.
 
Well its just hard to predict for me , lets say day 1 markets drop 3% do I take my money out now ? I've seen days like this before and then day 2 its back to normal or up again , selling everything also gives rise to a CGT event . If I don't sell on day 1 then day 2 comes along another 3-4% wiped off its the same thing you probably start to do think the sell off is an overreaction . Before you know it its day 5 or something and you've lost 25% but it's hard to predict the bottom and if you sell around day 4-5 you could end up watching the markets rise dramatically on day 6.

This seems to be the pattern alright since the financial crash in 2008, everything happens so fast now rather than the long drawn out bear markets. The title of this thread "the longest bull market in history" is actually not correct because we have had several rapid sell offs lasting less than 2 months, then rapid recovery, happened in 2012, 2016 and 2018, December 2018 was the worst December in stock market history. Of course all of this is rapidly forgotten when the market recovers again.
Previous prolonged bear markets happened when investors switched from stocks to bonds, but then bonds always provided reasonable yields of at least 3%, so they were a safe haven to park your money for a long time. This is not the case today and since the financial crash . Therefore in the era of zero and negative interest rates everything has changed, the old rule book has been thrown out the window. Unless there is real panic and a flight to precious metals
 
Sorry @joe sod but the title of this thread is absolutely correct.

The S&P500 has enjoyed and continues to be in the longest bull market in history.

There has not been a 20% plus draw down to the close of any trading day for well over 10 years. That has never happened before.

That’s a fact - not an opinion.

I’ve no idea why you insist on re-interpreting this thread.

Incidentally, the Eurozone government bond index has increased in value this week. So much for your view that bonds have no value.

I genuinely hope nobody pays any heed to your contributions on here - they really are pathetic.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top