London House Sales Slump

[ClubMan]

Re: lower property prices are a GOOD thing

Duplex they removed your Fallujah Investment parody to 'the craic'. it was hilarious, keep it up. But it does go to show you the ethos of this site. I.e. property bullish views prefered... the bears around here should take solace that events will unfold in our favour...

Not at all. Once again there is no conspiracy theory behind all of this. I simply moved it to The Craic because, as you yourself admit, it was a parody/joke and hence belonged in The Craic rather than one of the more serious forums. No other reason. And the redirect link is still here for the moment. Some people have little to be complaining about...

 

[Unregistered]

Housing Market Collapse Draws Nearer

According to the financial times:

[broken link removed]

 

[z107]

Re: London Sales Slump

At this stage I almost wish it would just collapse. Put us all out of our misery.

 

[walk2dewater]

Re: London Sales Slump

We've just barely entered the stagnation stage IMHO. There's a way to go just yet in the cycle. There are enough supports to maintain this phase for a while. Nevertheless, the cheques is in the mail for the Great Irish Property Pyramid Scheme 2000-2005... if you need solace pay close attention to the UK which is about a year ahead of us in the cycle..

For now I say: Enjoy the cheap rent and flexibility of living where you want to, wait and save up a larger deposit, tune out the noise of the property hypsters their time in coming to a close, and most of all enjoy life....

Then: Get ready with a fat deposit to pick up the deals when the over-extended start rushing to the exits in earnest...

 

[tonka]

Re: London Sales Slump

Galway City has entered the stagnation stage but a cartel of Estate Agents keep the asking prices on the even keel it has been on since about q3 2003 . Sooner or later the asking prices will drop because of oversupply and then the fun starts .

The creepiest thing I saw all year was the Doughiska house with the White goods still in their packaging in the kitchen, the house was never rented out and never will be and will be dumped on the market when the appreciation stops AND everyone knows it . There are others out there of course , .

House building in Galway peaked in 2003/early 2004 and has scaled back quite a lot owing to lack of demand.

Many new entries to the labour market in Galway nowadays are Poles living 10 to a rented house to save money so pop increases are no indicator of housing demand any more, sorry about that .

Watch Galway, it will fall first.

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

Then: Get ready with a fat deposit to pick up the deals when the over-extended start rushing to the exits in earnest...

Virtually identical prophecies were made here over two years ago. And I've been hearing similar doomsday scenarios for well over 7 years on and off.

I always wondered where all the doomsayers go afterwards...?

 

[walk2dewater]

Re: London Sales Slump

Gabriel, I refer you to the current situation in UK. Over 1/2 million properties stagnating on the market and all the housing indices are falling month after month, going into -ve year-on-year by as early as June... I wont post links, a cursory search of the web will uncover the facts.... Although, perhaps you're onto something Gabriel, Ireland may well stubbornly defy the fate of all bubbles, we may indeed end up with the highest land/property prices the world has ever seen... God save us then...

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

Gabriel, I refer you to the current situation in UK. Over 1/2 million properties stagnating on the market and all the housing indices are falling month after month, going into -ve year-on-year by as early as June... I wont post links, a cursory search of the web will uncover the facts.... Although, perhaps you're onto something Gabriel, Ireland may well stubbornly defy the fate of all bubbles, we may indeed end up with the highest land/property prices the world has ever seen... God save us then...

The UK housing market is very different to the Irish one...just as the Australian one is...

 

[walk2dewater]

Re: London Sales Slump

if it walks like a duck...

no matter, 'the cheque is in the mail' and my advice remains the same; maintain zero speculative exposure to the irish market.

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

if it walks like a duck...

the cheque is in the mail'

Cliches aside, using other countries as blotting paper for the Irish market is disingenuous.

maintain zero speculative exposure to the irish market.

Again, I heard this up to 7 years ago, from various family members and friends of friends.

According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now.

 

[CoffeeBrew]

Re: London Sales Slump

The UK housing market is very different to the Irish one...just as the Australian one is...

Ireland has been ranked as having the most global economy in the world and yet you appear to be saying we have nothing to learn from the unfolding property crisis in the UK and Australia (and others!). Is that your stance ?

 

[joe sod]

Re: London Sales Slump

"According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now."

So that simply means that there will need to be 5 years of reversing back to 2000 levels. So if your thinking about property hold on for at least 5 years

 

[walk2dewater]

Re: London Sales Slump

The irish market is different Gabriel because? remind me. There's a miraculous floor under which irish prices cannot ever move.. Why's that? The govt is going to set up a Department of Irish Property Price Floors and compel buyers to accept any price the vendors deem is the 'right' price , is that it? You are niave about how markets work son.

markets have a funny way of making mickies out of us all...
this is the real world..

[broken link removed]

Gabriel, you've being hearing its a bubble for 7 years, so therefore with even higher prices it's not a bubble now? Faulty logic there. oh and while I'm at it, another point I'd like to raise is that, lower housing prices benefits everyone who wants to be housed. It benefits FTBs and it benefits trader-ups. If you're a FTB or someone with a growing family who needs to trade up you should welcome the cheaper prices coming your way. Who wants high housing costs anyway?

 

[ClubMan]

Re: London Sales Slump

"According to some we've been at the 'top end' of the market for about 5 years now."

So that simply means that there will need to be 5 years of reversing back to 2000 levels. So if your thinking about property hold on for at least 5 years

This makes no sense at all. Why would 2000 levels of house prices be somehow special? Why not some other arbitrary year? What does "top end of the market" mean anyway?

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

Ireland has been ranked as having the most global economy in the world and yet you appear to be saying we have nothing to learn from the unfolding property crisis in the UK and Australia (and others!). Is that your stance ?

My own views are not so black and white as those presented by many here.

The boom is undoubtedly slowing down. However, the jumps that many here appear to be taking from this point are rather outlandish to say the least.

There are plenty of subtle and important differences between our market and the British one.

There's a miraculous floor under which irish prices cannot ever move.. Why's that?

I never said there was! I said there were differences. The argument you and many here present is oh look...the whole global housing market is about to come crashing to its knees. Why? Because it's happening in Australia, because it's happening in the UK. The giant leaps made from country to country is farcical.

Gabriel, you've being hearing its a bubble for 7 years, so therefore with even higher prices it's not a bubble now? Faulty logic there.

No...far from it. I've been hearing this from some people. However, just because some people believe this "bubble" is just about to burst doesn't mean it's necessarily so.

lower housing prices benefits everyone who wants to be housed. It benefits FTBs and it benefits trader-ups. If you're a FTB or someone with a growing family who needs to trade up you should welcome the cheaper prices coming your way. Who wants high housing costs anyway?

But then I don't base my assumptions on what I hope will happen.

 

[walk2dewater]

Re: London Sales Slump

The beauty of this debate is that events will unfold in favour of those in the bear camp. The bulls continue to have the upper hand as year-on-year price changes remain positive. I believe the TSB permanent HPI comes out this week. Any bets the index will be positive but down? The spin will be, "the market continues to slow, allowing the pent up masses of eager buyers a once-only chance to get their first step on the property ladder before the prices accelerate once again..." etc.

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

The beauty of this debate is that events will unfold in favour of those in the bear camp. The bulls continue to have the upper hand as year-on-year price changes remain positive. I believe the TSB permanent HPI comes out this week. Any bets the index will be positive but down? The spin will be, "the market continues to slow, allowing the pent up masses of eager buyers a once-only chance to get their first step on the property ladder before the prices accelerate once again..." etc.

Why is it that the tone of these posts always seems to be..."We'll win in the end" as opposed to just dealing with facts?

Most sensible theory (I stress that word) I've listened to on this topic assumes or even takes for granted that the burst or surge we've seen in recent years is all but over.
If I were a betting man I would assume that price rises would continue to drop until they reach 1/2% per year and then steady off.

But I'll openly acknowledge that that's a guess on my part. However, it seems markedly more plausible than some of the ideas here and on other similar threads.

 

[CoffeeBrew]

Re: London Sales Slump

My own views are not so black and white as those presented by many here.

The boom is undoubtedly slowing down. However, the jumps that many here appear to be taking from this point are rather outlandish to say the least.

There are plenty of subtle and important differences between our market and the British one.

Gabriel

Do you believe that house prices could fall here ?
Also, what do you think we can learn here in Ireland from the property crises emerging in the UK ?.

 

[Gabriel]

Re: London Sales Slump

Do you believe that house prices could fall here ?

Yes...of course I believe they could fall in the future, given the right circumstances.

However, I personally don't think it's very likely, in any near future, and there's no data to suggest this is about to happen here.

An interest rate hike will/should slow the market a little further. If it happens, all current thought is that it will be a small increase [within the next 6-8 months].

My problem is with some of the completely outlandish ideas being posted here.

 

[tonka]

Re: London Sales Slump

and there's no data to suggest this is about to happen here.

Having house prices at an ALL time high:

Relative to gross incomes
Relative to take home pay
Relative to Rents ...ie the YIELD

And all of this being commented yer OECDs and ESRIs and even by the Economist about 5 years ago ) . None of this Data would be in the least compelling would it Gabriel. ??