Irish banking exposure to CLOs and impact on pensions/investments

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mickdineen

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Hi, I read an article in The Atlantic yesterday titled The Looming Bank Collapse. It's focus is on the American banking system and it's exposure to these collateralised loan obligations (CLO) and how they are very similar to collateralised debt obligations (CDO) which had a large part to play in the crash of the late 2000's.

My question is whether the Irish banking system would be as exposed this time around to another global financial crisis or have they learned lessons. The article made me worry about current investments and future planning which is why I am posting here.

The Article made it appear that some of these loan packages were already starting to collapse and default prior to the COVID-19 pandemic which is making things worse.

My next question would be how to avoid this with future savings plans - what would be the advice for the safest investments in Ireland/EU to still yield modest enough gains?
 
There is a lot of talk about these opaque tools of the banking/finance industry and, I dare say, they will form part of any future banking crisis.
Though I think there is a simpler problem. In the last 4 months, rents have gone unpaid, mortgages have gone unpaid, jobs have been lost, hours reduced. It's quite possible that Commercial Property in some of the most exclusive parts of the world ( for exclusive, read really, really expensive properties backed up by multi-billion dollar loans) will see their prices collapse and their loans go into default.

Ultimately, the banking system will not collapse, because we know what to do to save it. Nationalisation, or good old fashion Marxist theory of banking. As explained below, this is what happened last time. For all the fluff, this time is not much different. It's the nature of the beast, crisis.

"That is how it all developed: profits rise, wages fall, workers and small businesses take out loans, banks advance credit with money they do not have, the loans are not repaid, banks get into difficulty and are bailed out with public money, governments then get into debt and introduce austerity policies to balance the books and workers suffer with cuts in wages, jobs and services.
Therefore, the crisis in the banking and finance system that led to a public bailout, governments getting into debt, austerity policies that are driving down living standards, the creation of a “precariat” (unstable, temporary, low paid, short term contact workers), cuts in public services and jobs was sparked/triggered by banks that sought to overcome within the confines of capitalism the contradictions of the market. These contradictions were in turn caused by the nature of the exploitation of labour, the extraction of surplus value and private ownership. Each time credit is expanded to falsely inflate the market preparations are being made for an even greater crisis in the future."

Shareholders will suffer, bondholders will suffer, depositors with more than 100k should suffer. Taxpayers, users of public services, will suffer and political turmoil will ensue.
I think it's coming, so buckle up. My advice, for what it's worth, put most of any investment portfolio into cash ( with a small hedge in gold) and sit the next five years out.
 
NoRegretsCoyote said:
Irish retail banks' assets are still mainly loans to the Irish consumers and firms.
Click to expand...


Doesn't Bank of Ireland have a substantial exposure to the UK residential property market?

With a hard Brexit racing towards us, it's another cat among the pigeons.
 
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