Re: Ireland one of Most Indebted Countries
Mental masturbation abounds on this board.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->But back to the subject.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Ireland's EU-funded party is set to end. Jobs are fleeing like proverbial rats (unless you are satisfied with counting the money of others in the IFSC).<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->
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Service with a smile as rapidly growing sector fuels our jobs surge<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->
With construction likely to peak this year, it seems that the economy will depend almost entirely on the services sector for future growth in employment<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->OUT of the mouths of babes and sucklings comes wisdom. Apparently, Bob the Builder has replaced the traditional policeman, fireman and train driver as the desired occupation of five-year-olds. The kids could be on to something.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Last week's employment figures report from the CSO for the second quarter of the year was a remarkable document. Among the remarkable things it contained was the 15,000 increase in the number at work in the building industry compared with the same time last year.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->The construction industry shrugged off the economic downturn like a troublesome insect. Employment has risen in every quarter for the past two years and topped 200,000 in the middle of last year. In another eye-catching statistic, construction accounted for a third of the 43,000 jobs created in the previous twelve months.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->More than one analyst thinks the housing boom could explain a lot of the economy's resilience during the 2000-02 downturn. House-building continued to increase throughout, to reach the undreamed-of figure of 80,000 completions this year.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->But, if a thing cannot go on forever, it usually stops eventually. When the peak of the building boom is finally reached, the subsequent return to normality, even if gradual, will have a depressing effect, on both the statistics and the real world of work and incomes.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->A recent report from DKM Consultants suggested that this year is the peak for Irish construction. With stronger commercial and infrastructure investment adding to the housing bonanza, they expect an 8pc increase in output terms this year. They think growth will then slow markedly in the next two years, but it will still be growth, of around 3pc a year.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->This may be enough to maintain employment, but output seems certain to continue to slow in the rest of the decade. The risk is that, if house-building were to fall rapidly to what economists mostly think is the "natural" demand of 40,000 units a year, 60,000 jobs could go. Some would find work in other parts of the industry, but they tend not to be as labour-intensive as construction.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->In the meantime, helped by the building boom, the Irish economy continues to generate new jobs at the spectacular rate of 1.7pc a year. But the structure of the labour market is changing fast, and the building boom is only a part of it.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Such a change would take place alongside what seems to be a striking shift from industrial to services employment. Perhaps the latest figures are too striking, coming against a background of an economic slowdown which hit Ireland's specialist industries hard, and a recovery which seems to be led by services and domestic demand.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Industrial employment fell by 5,500 since the second quarter of last year. Yet even this figure is more resilient than it seems at first glance. The loss of jobs occurred in the middle of last year, but employment seems to have recovered in 2004. This is despite weak output statistics, but most of the weakness is in chemicals, an industry whose ups and downs have little effect on employment.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Booming construction, and manufacturing holding its own. Then come the amazing figures for the services sector, to give that net total of 43,000 new jobs. Could there even be a connection between the housing boom and the 10,000 extra jobs in financial services? It takes a lot of keyboard punching to process almost €2bn worth of mortgages a month.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->But even the financial sector is dwarfed by the 14,300 more people who said they worked in other services. In other services bar one, that is. Hotels and restaurants, although a service, get a separate CSO listing and this sector lost 6,600 jobs.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->With Ireland the most expensive country in Europe, and destined to remain so, one cannot see a return to the tourism of the 1990s. If the industry can produce a higher-quality product able to command high prices it may continue to add value, but it may no longer be able to add jobs.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->The conclusion from all this is that the economy now depends almost entirely on the services sector (excluding the hospitality business) for future growth in employment. But how many jobs are needed?<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Tentative answers to that are found in a figure which rarely makes the headlines - the growth in the labour force. The numbers working or seeking work rose by a healthy 2.4pc in the twelve months. As well as the natural increase, there was a notable increase of 45-54-year-olds participating in the labour force, and the participation rate for married women is approaching 50pc.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->As the chart shows, participation rates are already high, with limited scope to increase. Labour force growth ought to fall to less than 2pc a year in the next few years. That makes it easier to maintain full employment, but it also reduces potential economic growth. Fianna Fáil is already straining under the limitations of 7-8pc growth in money terms. But they will have to get used to less over the rest of the decade.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->How much less depends on the biggest imponderable of all - immigration. Immigrants may have contributed up to half the 45,000 labour force increase last year.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->In services especially, their presence creates jobs which would not otherwise exist, because there would be no one to fill them.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->They are flexible, mobile and, as a health survey suggested last week, they work harder than the natives.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->For the moment, that suits both them and us. But for how long?<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->How long, indeed. Maybe [broken link removed] can shed some light into the darkess of our pubs where we have pissed away over of the EU's money.<!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END--><!--EZCODE BR START--><!--EZCODE BR END-->Friends, 2007 is just around the corner. Time to sell up that hyper-inflated pile and head for the continent or the UK. We have not had the continental diaspora option before, but then our language skills are desperate. Maybe more Morrison and Donnelly visas are in order?
