Brendan Burgess
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Hi Odyssey
That is great. But what, if anything, does that tell us about the peak?
Brendan
That is great. But what, if anything, does that tell us about the peak?
Brendan
"Ireland has passed its peak"
- Thread starter Brendan Burgess
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I was more putting in a benchmark of where we at.
If we see those figures going up \ down from that benchmark we will know where we are in relation to the peak of the crisis.
(please move to new thread if it's too indirect)
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HSE planning for peak Covid-19 outbreak to happen in two weeks time based on current modelling
The chief operations officer said they are making preparations for the peak to arrive between the 10 and 14 April.
www.thejournal.ie
So we have reached the 10th April, the start of the peak that the HSE were planning for, as revealed by Anne O'Connor on 29th March. I think this was the only time a HSE or government official revealed dates when they were expecting a peak.
These dates may have changed by now but I don't think any update has been given?
Brendan Burgess
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But it's never clear which peak they are referring to.
Peak infections?
Peak hospital admissions?
Peak ICU?
Brendan
Peak infections?
Peak hospital admissions?
Peak ICU?
Brendan
In this case it is the Chief Operating Officer of the HSE, she says:
“We do have to work on some basis when it comes to planning and we are planning for a peak between the 10 and 14 April, around that time.”
I would expect that she was referring to peak activity in the hospitals.
“We do have to work on some basis when it comes to planning and we are planning for a peak between the 10 and 14 April, around that time.”
I would expect that she was referring to peak activity in the hospitals.
'peak' should mean peak of infections - as there is always a lag between infections to hospitalisations and then a lag to ICU admittance and fatalities.
But our testing regime isn't extensive enough to catch peak infections, so I would interpret it to mean peak hospitalisations.
But our testing regime isn't extensive enough to catch peak infections, so I would interpret it to mean peak hospitalisations.
I think we need to consider there may well be multiple peaks to this. Three more weeks of the current restrictions might well see hospital numbers drop, perhaps to the point where they declare we are passed the peak and restrictions are eased somewhat. But at that point the vast majority of the population will still be susceptible to infection, and an easing of restrictions will see the infection rate rise.
There could be and yes the majority of the population will still be susceptible.
But, if we eased the restrictions back on domestic levels while keeping flight restrictions - say to the previous phase (social distancing, no pubs or large gatherings), I'm not sure where the pool of new contagious people are coming from?
As a precaution we should retain the restrictions on visitors eg to nursing homes. and the most vulnerable should still coccon but for the working population would keeping hardware stores etc closed really make a difference. I'm not sure.
With an estimated 50% of carriers asymptomatic, they're already among us.
The current restrictions aren't sufficient to eliminate it completely, they'll hopefully just bring the rate of new cases down to a level that won't overwhelm the health service.
I think the authorities are managing the message, issuing a 3 week extension on Friday that was really 3.5 weeks, then drip feeding suggestions since that May 5th will be far from the end of them.
"Now in Plateau Position"
THE CHAIR OF the modelling group advising on the country’s response to Covid-19 has said we are at a “plateau” in terms of the level infections but there is a “delicate balance” to be maintained...
In the early stages of this epidemic, the reproduction number was somewhere between 2 and 4. Immediately after the early interventions it looks like the reproduction number was somewhere between 1.5 and 3. And then the last panel shows the pretty high level of confidence in this model that the reproduction number is now below one.
www.thejournal.ie
THE CHAIR OF the modelling group advising on the country’s response to Covid-19 has said we are at a “plateau” in terms of the level infections but there is a “delicate balance” to be maintained...
In the early stages of this epidemic, the reproduction number was somewhere between 2 and 4. Immediately after the early interventions it looks like the reproduction number was somewhere between 1.5 and 3. And then the last panel shows the pretty high level of confidence in this model that the reproduction number is now below one.
'It's in a plateau position': People with Covid-19 now infecting less than one person
Professor Philip Nolan has said that any loosening of restrictions must be approached “exceptionally carefully”.
www.thejournal.ie
Based on below quote from above article, they are not aiming for 0...
"it doesn’t seem to me to be a viable strategy to maintain this level of restriction forever with the hope of eliminating the disease. Because then as soon as you do anything, the disease reappears, it just takes two or three people entering the country with the disease to restart it.”
It’s hard to gauge exactly where the best time to start releasing the lockdown would be but in my own head somewhere around 0.5 would make sense and then with bumped up testing monitor the infection rate and when it comes back above 1.0 you tighten restrictions again for a week or two and the rinse and repeat until a vaccine arrives.
There is a very good interview with Angela Merkel doing the rounds where she is talking about the reinfection rate. The margins are tiny. Some restrictions can be eased but it is going to be very slow. Germany currently has a rate of 1 and easing some restrictions. As she said, if that goes to 1.1, they will reach hospital capacity in October. If it goes to 1.3, they will reach capacity in June. It's extremely delicate position. Or you could do a Trump on it I suppose.....
0 is an impossible target even in the medium to long term, that would require the entire population to have full and effective immunity. I'm not sure that will ever be possible.
Keeping it below 1 is the focus I believe, so that we don't overwhelm critical care facilities. We started implemented restrictions on March 12th, and went into lockdown on March 27th, and it has taken this long to bring the rate below 1. Reports put the current number between 0.7 and 1 depending on which method they use, unless this drops significantly between now and May 5th, any significant changes to the restrictions will push the rate above 1 again.