Thanks - fixed it to include year 1 and annual charge for ETF!If you change your assumptions, you get a different answer. So check the assumptions.
For a large IT that tracks an index, a 1% management fee would be closer to reality.
You need to include a .2% charge for the ETF.
I think a globally diverse portfolio currently has a dividend yield somewhere around 1.5%
And have a look at what happens when you roll your model out beyond 16 years. The longer you're invested, the bigger the impact of those deemed disposals.
By the way, you've set it up that you've no return in year 1?
I also went with your figures on IT annual charge and average yield.
ETF still beating IT at year 8 and 16 but IT beats ETF at year 24
I would likely be moving away from equities between year 16 and 24 due to getting close to retiring age so ETF still looking like a better option for me.
Then there's the question of what would I do with that money in 24 years anyway? If I just invest it in my PRSA now (even though I'm not getting income tax relief) it outperforms both the ETF and IT.
The additional assumptions in this model are annual management fee of 1% and there is no tax on dividends that are reinvested.
Finally the idea of creating my own fund came to mind. My PRSA invests in 5 Star 5 Global Fund with Zurich. This is fifty global equities across five different sectors. I was thinking of splitting the initial €100,000 into the top 50 stocks from the S&P 100.
The assumptions are an initial charge of approx €30 from DeGiro. No management fee. Pay 51% tax on dividends before reinvesting.
The risk is somewhat diversified but I'm guessing the return won't be as large as investing in a S&P ETF because I'm not investing in the likes of netflix that come from nowhere to become very valuable. However, the Zurich PRSA fund isn't picking that up either.
In my model, my own fund beats everything else. But if I wanted to transfer it to bonds at year 24, just investing in my PRSA (despite not receiving the income tax advantage) looks like the best option.
IT | ETF | PRSA | My own fund | |||||
Invested | 100,000 | 100,000 | 100,000 | 99,970 | Annual Return | 1.1 | ||
Year 1 | 109,635 | 111,277 | 110,385 | 110,702 | Annual Dividend Payment | 0.015 | ||
Year 2 | 120,198 | 123,826 | 121,848 | 122,586 | IT Annual Management Fee | 0.01 | ||
Year 3 | 131,779 | 137,790 | 134,502 | 135,745 | ETF annual charge | 0.002 | ||
Year 4 | 144,476 | 153,328 | 148,471 | 150,317 | PRSA Annual Management Fee | 0.01 | ||
Year 5 | 158,397 | 170,619 | 163,889 | 166,454 | ||||
Year 6 | 173,658 | 189,860 | 180,909 | 184,323 | ||||
Year 7 | 190,390 | 211,270 | 199,696 | 204,110 | ||||
Year 8 | 208,734 | 235,095 | 220,435 | 226,021 | ||||
tax | 35,882 | 55,389 | 41,597 | |||||
total if sold | 172,852 | 179,706 | 184,424 | |||||
Year 9 | 228,846 | 199,971 | 243,327 | 250,284 | ||||
Year 10 | 250,895 | 222,522 | 268,597 | 277,152 | ||||
Year 11 | 275,069 | 247,616 | 296,490 | 306,905 | ||||
Year 12 | 301,572 | 275,540 | 327,281 | 339,851 | ||||
Year 13 | 330,628 | 306,612 | 361,269 | 376,334 | ||||
Year 14 | 362,484 | 341,189 | 398,787 | 416,734 | ||||
Year 15 | 397,410 | 379,665 | 440,201 | 461,470 | ||||
Year 16 | 435,700 | 422,480 | 485,916 | 511,009 | ||||
tax | 110,781 | 76,828 | rebate of 49,638 from 8 years previous | 135,643 | ||||
total if sold | 324,919 | 345,652 | 375,366 | |||||
Year 17 | 477,680 | 384,631 | 536,378 | 565,865 | ||||
Year 18 | 523,704 | 428,006 | 592,081 | 626,611 | ||||
Year 19 | 574,163 | 476,272 | 653,569 | 693,878 | ||||
Year 20 | 629,484 | 529,981 | 721,442 | 768,366 | ||||
Year 21 | 690,134 | 589,747 | 796,363 | 850,850 | ||||
Year 22 | 756,629 | 656,253 | 879,066 | 942,188 | ||||
Year 23 | 829,530 | 730,259 | 970,357 | 1,043,332 | ||||
Year 24 | 909,455 | 812,610 | 1,071,128 | 1,155,334 | ||||
tax | 243,079 | 159,954 | subtract tax already paid in year 8 and 16 | | 320,400 | |||
total if sold | 666,376 | 652,657 | 834,934 |
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