If I buy a piece of land and grow a crop of trees. The value of the land will rise and fall. But the cost of growing the crop is nil. And there is a government premium income for 10 to 15 years. If the price of lumber falls by 50%, I will still get a return on my investment, but just not what I was expecting
OK, so then if you run the numbers what kind of return are you expecting to get? And how does that stack up against the alternative ways of investing in commodities?
There is a big difference between you and I growing trees and a west of Ireland farmer such as my brother who has got about 2.5 hectares of bad land under trees. And even for him, it is going to represent a small part of his income flows.
And the fact that government subsidies are necessary to encourage people to get involved should serve at least as an orange flag - unlike other situations, the major group of 'investors' in this case have a powerful union to defend their interests and if the farming community's interests and yours ever diverge you can guess which way it will go when it comes to subsidies....
If you objective is to become involved in 'tree farming' then this is a good opportunity, but if your objective is to build an investment portfolio that will generate wealth and income for you in later life, then this is not the way to go about it.