Interest rates - market view

You can get 10/1 on Betfair.com on a 50bp rise, if gambling is your thing. Where can I look at what the futures markets mentioned earlier expect it to be?
 
daveirl said:
You can get 10/1 on Betfair.com on a 50bp rise, if gambling is your thing. Where can I look at what the futures markets mentioned earlier expect it to be?
Click to expand...
Not any more- 7.4 now!
 
shnaek said:
Not any more- 7.4 now!
Click to expand...
Thats because they read my prediction and agree with me. I loaded some €€€ into betfair at for 50Bp @ 12/1 early this week as a hedge against mortgage prices for the rest of the year ...only , not because I gamble habitually
 
Glenbhoy said:
Indeed, yet you have a betfair account
Click to expand...
Only in order to speculatively underpin my superlative judgement my dear fellow.

I punt once a month or so and never look at the site until the idea strikes me first . Then I say, wonder what Betfair ?.........???

Usually I punt at odds of 8/1 or higher so breakeven is crudely once every 8 punts . At 12/1 I simply could not resist.
 
More To Indicate 50Bp Today

Eurozone Manufacturing Is Rocking Along Despite The High Euro

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/7042bc88-f14e-11da-940b-0000779e2340.html

The unexpected rise in the eurozone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, from 56.7 in April to 57.0 in May, marked the eleventh successive monthly improvement in business condition
Click to expand...

Somebody better tell those "must get on housing ladder" muppets though , its really time for Brian Cowan to address the nation I think !
 

And now, Chinese inflation. Who would have guessed, the central banks flood the world with liquidity and we get inflation; shock horror.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=8D8E3C3F-3048-5296-A2098E054549537E
 
What odds now for 50bp next week?

[broken link removed]

Euro zone inflation pressures 5yr high - report
Last updated: 02-06-06, 12:04

Rising inflation in Germany and France pushed underlying price pressures in the euro zone to 5-1/2 year highs in April, according to an index published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute today. ECRI, which designs indices aimed at predicting business cycles, said its Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG) rose to 103.4 in April from March's 102.2.
"With the EZFIG rising to a 5-1/2 year high in its latest reading, euro zone inflation pressures are clearly in a cyclical upswing," ECRI said in a statement.
Latest official euro zone data showed annual inflation rose by a sharper-than-expected 2.5 per cent in May, while a report from the European Commission showed a strong rise in consumers' inflation expectations last month.
The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on June 8th, but the recent data have increased the probability that the bank may raise rates more aggressively, by half a percentage point.
The ECRI gauge aims to anticipate cyclical swings in the region's inflation rate and changes in official interest rate policy by measuring underlying inflationary pressures, rather than actual inflation rates.
The euro zone gauge uses a weighted average of ECRI's indices for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, whose components include measurements of bond yields, loans to individuals and businesses, raw material prices, employment and unemployment, money supply and business activity.
The German index jumped to 91.5 from 87.2 in March, whilst the French one rose to 103.5 from March's 103.1.
In contrast, the gauge for Italy dipped to 101.2 from 101.5 and the Spanish index eased to 154.3 from 159.8.
"The (German) index was pushed up by inflationary moves in measures of materials prices, money supply, orders and loans, partly offset by disinflationary moves in measures of interest rates and import prices," ECRI said.
 
Interest rates to be set in Dublin?

its May 10 meeting will be hosted by the Irish central bank in Dublin
Click to expand...


I think I'll be outside the central bank with a placard: " we joined the euro and all we got was a d*mn property bubble"

[broken link removed]
 
Remix said:
Interest rates to be set in Dublin?




I think I'll be outside the central bank with a placard: " we joined the euro and all we got was a d*mn property bubble"

[broken link removed]
Click to expand...

Our central banks could have increase reserve ratios etc and limit lending ,might be an investigation into the bank when the property bubble bursts.
 
bearishbull said:
Our central banks could have increase reserve ratios etc and limit lending ,might be an investigation into the bank when the property bubble bursts.
Click to expand...

You're right, blame for this "concrete and credit" economy shouldn't be pushed abroad.
 
bearishbull said:
Our central banks could have increase reserve ratios
Click to expand...
I Never understood why they spouted wind and piss about being 'concerned' and never upped the reserve ratios to show they were serious about it . Maybe its IFSRAs fault not the CB, dunno.

Too late now.
 
There'll be another round of tribunals al la the planning and corruption one's of the 1980's no doubt,no body will be blamed apart from a few scapegoats and the legal profession will make a fortune.

(We'll thats what my crystal ball says anyway !)
 
I see that Bernanke's statement last night sent shivers down the spine of the investing community as he indicated that there won't be a pause in rate hikes over there in the short term. Did anyone hear what Trichet had to say at the same meeting?
 
The ECB have entered their "blackout period" prior to the meeting so Trichet gave no hints on rates.

Trichet did get his blood up at the meeting though

Trichet angrily rejected a suggestion from the audience that Italy be allowed to temporarily leave the euro-area for 18 months
Click to expand...

No hints link.
 
So it's official - 0.25% increase. Hope those backers of 0.5% on betfair laid out when the odds tumbled!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register