Thanks Sarenco. I probably agree with you in the context of me (or anyone) investing for a long time period, in my case 20 years plus.
But does the market get in wrong on specifics, does it overshoot/undershoot well I think that's another debate entirely!!
OK to add more detail, here is my logic. I have 90% of my fund now in cash. It's did very well from 2010-2015 as a result of general market movement and me working hard on the contributions. Now I have to go back into equities and I am nervy that the US to my mind looks set for a correction. It's my simple guess and I'll probably be proven wrong.
So I don't want to go in too quick and I want to keep cash in reserve so I can buy the turndown. I'm not trying to time the market in my mind, I'm just looking at a 9 year bull market that has to run out of steam at some point. In the meantime, I'm setting my allocation target to be hit at the end of month 36.
I plan to allocate 80% of my funds cash to let's call it my core long term fund. The balance is for quality stock picking or my sex and violence.
The 80% will be invested in equal portions over the 3 years so I will be in substantial cash still for a while.
So my target allocation at month 36 for my core long term fund is:
US S&P 35% - but monthly contributions will start very low and we'll see what happens;
Euro 35% - will allocate more on a monthly basis initially and see what happens;
Emerging markets 10% - will allocate evenly;
UK Investment Trusts 10% - will allocate evenly to 2/3 trusts (1 FTSE focused) with decent dividend/track record/costs;
All market 10% - will allocate excess cash evenly.
Worst that can happen, I average in too slow and miss US growth, best I get some benefit from the correction (but that's just my own opinion).
What I'll do at end year 3 (aged 44) is then allocate monthly contributions evenly across these. I'll then fill it out with other asset classes over time - will see how bonds are etc.
I'm trying to get to a stage by 44 that I have a solid well diversified cost effective equity fund that will be good to remain in place for 20 years.
My 20% will be actively managed by myself and we'll see how this goes. As I said I have a few rules (its simple warren buffet stuff) and if I mess it up only myself to blame.
That's my thinking, comments welcome on any of it.