Inda sacking Richard Bruton

The_Banker said:
I dont think you are comparing like for like here.. In the UK its first past the post but Proportional Representation in Ireland.
With PR (as a rule of thumb) the percentage normally does reflect the amount of seats won.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but .. many Labour TDs rely on transfers to get the 2nd last or last seat in a constituency. FF have it in their DNA to manage transfers to get in running mates on the coat tails of poll toppers, e.g. Cyprian Brady.

Labour don't have this level of cunning in each and every constituency. Also, because of where they have come from, many constituency organisations are based around one person, the TD. Now they have to mobilise to get canvassers out to knock on doors and give up their time for some councillor who may not be ready to run.

I'm not saying it's impossible, just that it's highly unlikely.
 

Didn't realise that. However, if they get similiarly positive poll results in the coming months perhaps more people will run / divert to Labour?
 
As tarf says, it's impossible as it is for Labour to win. They'd have to run multiple candidates in all areas (even though they really only have support in Dublin). Then you're talking about upsetting the existing TDs by them having to run a couple of candidates along with them.

I'd agree to some extent Enda had little choice, but he never entertained any other possibility. RB did it right, his supporters remained quiet and it would be discussed at the executive meeting. All behind closed doors. EK could have waited until then to see what the support was or wasn't and then looked at a deal with RB. He's probably ended up making it worse by upsetting some who would have been neutral in this debate. In effect, he's just signed his own resignation as there is no way back from this.

As to FF, if Lenihan wasn't ill (and unfortunately is unlikely to be a long term possibility) he'd be in by now or at least FF would be going through similar moves. FF's cronyism has come back to bite them as the cabinet of pals and friends of Cowen and Berite means there is no star in the making ready to step up.

Yes Labour are probably laughing, but hopefully not too hard. One Poll based on phoning up a few people in Dublin shouldn't mean they get too comfortable (or for that matter that FG start self destructing). And we shouldn't be too harsh on the electorate just yet, saying yes to Gilmore to a pollster is different to voting yes.
 
While I'm not sure about RB's tilt for the leadership, I would like to see either Fine Gael either rebranded or split into two. A bit like the good bank/bad bank idea, there are some good people in Fine Gael but there are an awful lot of muppets as well who'd be just as at home in Fianna Fail. There is no political party I could vote for as they currently are.
 

No-one in FF will make a move against Cowen before the next election. Whose ambition is it to be Leader of the Opposition, especially after 12/15 years in charge ?
The next election has, for FF, to be written off (and letting Cowen take the bullet for it) so it's a matter of positioning yourself for the one after that


Expect to see Gilmore's political journey to be raised in the next campaign - from Sinn Fein Workers Party to potential Taoiseach ?
 
+1 Latrade

Enda should have said nothing and waited for the executive meeting behind closed doors. After debating the issue with his colleagues at the executive, if it is clear that he doesnt have their support, he could have cut a deal with them to remain as part of the front bench, and ultimately get an important cabinet position, in exchange for supporting a new leader.

If Enda had called a press conference for this afternoon and announced that he's enjoyed his x years in charge, but its time for someone else to take on the leadership workload as he's had it for several years......and he'd be very happy to assist the new leader including taking a front bench position etc. etc............then FG could have turned this into a huge positive rather than a negative.

Agree with comments over Lenihan. His illness rules him out for the forseeable future.

While Labour may have good support in the polls, it doesnt always translate into seats. Local issues can dominate. There is one constituency in Dublin where Labour are in danger of losing their seat due to a local issue and one or two more where their local candidates just havent connected with the electorate and so are unlikely to be elected - if Labour cant get seats in every Dublin constituency, its going to be a dissappointing election for them.
 

Similar situation in Cork where Kathleen Lynch (sitting Labour TD) seriously hacked off a large majority of her constituants by writing a letter of support for a convicted rapist. Lots of Labour voters vowed never to voted for her again.
So again, polls may not translate in votes.
 
Enda Kenny didn't have the luxuary of doing things behind closed doors. Once Richard Bruton did not give him his support on Prime Time last Thursday, it was open season. This was never going to be bloodless leadership change. Enda Kenny may not have been popular with the electorate but he has a very powerful base within the FG party. Even now, it is by no means certain that he will lose a vote from the Parlimentary party.

Even looking at the members of the front bench that have opposed him, they are the weaker ones in it. If Kenny can keep the likes O'Reilly, Deenihan, Flanagan, Hogan, Shatter and Ring on his side, his position is still pretty strong.

The whole thing is political suicide. The timing of it makes no sense.
 

That's part of what makes it so interesting and to some extent annoying. There isn't a replacement that I know of, or at least not one getting attention. Without using too many UK comparissons, but there's no Milliband (either of them).

But to that extent, I think like Labour in the UK, they expect to lose, whereas they've actually got 2 years to turn it around if they tried. Looking at the mess over at FG, now is actually a perfect time for FF to change leadership and capitalise. However, I think with the current state, it's less about letting Cowen take a hit and more that if they do change leadership or try to, they'd have little choice but to call an election, or the pressure would be extreme.

I don't personally by that argument of a new leader having no mandate. We have a presidential elections, general elections are not presidential elections. We've voted for TDs, the party with the largest number (or with a coalition) makes up the government. We don't vote for a leader, the party does.

So I don't actually get where FF is coming from. There are enough reports and evidence highlighting Cowen's and Bertie's roles, you don't have to wait for an election to let him take the hit, you can do that right now. New leader, new cabinet and who knows. I think the main problem is that with Lenihan eliminated and all other senior members being part of the old regime, there just isn't anyone who can take over.

As to FG, Enda's won this one, but as the cliche goes: it's a Pyrrhic victory. To trot out another UK comparisson, this may be like when Heseltine took on Thatcher (not comparing EK to Thatcher!). She won that one, largely because while a lot didn't support her, many of that faction didn't support Heseltine. But it was the begining of the end.
 
Sunny said:
Enda Kenny didn't have the luxuary of doing things behind closed doors. Once Richard Bruton did not give him his support on Prime Time last Thursday, it was open season. This was never going to be bloodless leadership change.
Click to expand...

I'm not so sure, I don't think Bruton's stance carried that much media attention. And in fairness his answer wasn't slightly taken out of context. To my recollection he said he did support the leader, then when asked if he would consider leadership he was honest and said who wouldn't consider the leadership if it became available. Of course, the latter "I'd love to be leader" is what the media went with.

Once it got out that Bruton had spent the weekend on the phone (look out for the phone bill in his expenses claims), I think you're right, there would always be some blood. However, I still think Kenny could have handled it as stated and waited until the meeting to make any sudden move.
 

My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.

Wonder what he'll be promising next time ?
 
TarfHead said:
My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.

Wonder what he'll be promising next time ?
Click to expand...

No, you probably misheard him with his mad accent.

He probably said labour would "luas" seats in constitituencies and that the local institutions were at "turd" level.

(Sorry, had to be done )
 
Here come the [broken link removed].

The journos must be high-fiving each other all the way to the editors' desks.
 
TarfHead said:
My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.

Wonder what he'll be promising next time ?
Click to expand...

Has gilmore even made up his mind yet on the Croke Park deal?

What a leader.

FG should stick with Kenny IMO.
 
TarfHead said:
My Labour TD, Tommy Broughan, was promising, in 2007, to bring the LUAS and a 3rd level institution to the constituency.

Wonder what he'll be promising next time ?
Click to expand...

Good guess on who I was thinking is in danger of losing his seat. But for a different reason. He objected to the Northside redevelopment PPP project - got it appealed to An Bord Pleanala. This was terminal for the project, costing his constituency €1bn in investment. With PPP projects, the full capital costs are committed to the project on day 1, so if the objections hadnt been made, the project would have proceeded. Unfortunately for Broughan, the delay of 1yr plus meant that by the time planning was given, the economic crash had started. Real bad timing. Will cost Broughan his seat in Dublin North East and cost any chance of Labour picking up a seat in Dublin North Central. Broughan really mis read his constituents views on this matter. The vast majority of people were in favour of the project. Many of those living in disadvantaged areas of Coolock, Darndale etc. would have got employment out of this - lost loads of votes among core Labour supporters.
 
I'd be surprised if Broughan doesn't get back in even with all that.

The reason Labour won't break 40 seats (I'd be surprised if they break 30) is as Tarfhead mentioned above, lack of organisation and experience in sharing the vote. There was a definite Labour seat in Dublin South at the last election but by adding Alex White to the ticket the vote was split and didn't transfer fully. If they couldn't get 1 seat last time I can't see them getting 2 there next time.

There are a few constituencies where their current TDs top the poll (or come very close) but a lot of that is personal votes not party, I'm thinking particularly of Willie Penrose, I just don't see the required organisation. There's no way that they'll be able to do a Cyprian Brady for example who got elected with only 500 odd first preferences.
 
The_Banker said:
With PR (as a rule of thumb) the percentage normally does reflect the amount of seats won.
Click to expand...

The UK is more all or nothing but there are huge variances here between the % and the number of seats.

Sinn fein would win 20 seats if there was a good correlation, but they won't get half that.

FF have won 80 seats with 37% of the vote but labour might only get 40 seats with 32% of the vote.

You really need a detailed analysis of the constituencies.
 
It looks like Bruton has called this one correctly as the way things are going Kenny will step down before any vote tomorrow. I think this could turn out to be a very good move for FG come the next general election.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Menu
Log in
Register