No-one in FF will make a move against Cowen before the next election. Whose ambition is it to be Leader of the Opposition, especially after 12/15 years in charge ?
The next election has, for FF, to be written off (and letting Cowen take the bullet for it) so it's a matter of positioning yourself for the one after that.
That's part of what makes it so interesting and to some extent annoying. There isn't a replacement that I know of, or at least not one getting attention. Without using too many UK comparissons, but there's no Milliband (either of them).
But to that extent, I think like Labour in the UK, they expect to lose, whereas they've actually got 2 years to turn it around if they tried. Looking at the mess over at FG, now is actually a perfect time for FF to change leadership and capitalise. However, I think with the current state, it's less about letting Cowen take a hit and more that if they do change leadership or try to, they'd have little choice but to call an election, or the pressure would be extreme.
I don't personally by that argument of a new leader having no mandate. We have a presidential elections, general elections are not presidential elections. We've voted for TDs, the party with the largest number (or with a coalition) makes up the government. We don't vote for a leader, the party does.
So I don't actually get where FF is coming from. There are enough reports and evidence highlighting Cowen's and Bertie's roles, you don't have to wait for an election to let him take the hit, you can do that right now. New leader, new cabinet and who knows. I think the main problem is that with Lenihan eliminated and all other senior members being part of the old regime, there just isn't anyone who can take over.
As to FG, Enda's won this one, but as the cliche goes: it's a Pyrrhic victory. To trot out another UK comparisson, this may be like when Heseltine took on Thatcher (not comparing EK to Thatcher!). She won that one, largely because while a lot didn't support her, many of that faction didn't support Heseltine. But it was the begining of the end.