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z109
Guest
I don't know what weird world you live in, but DMcW is neither a politician nor a developer. Guess again.
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mercman
Guest
I can remember George Lee pointing out the problems we are now in as long ago as 2002. As well as that the Central Bank advised on numerous occasions of the trouble the Banks were letting themselves in for. No Sunny I have no links with developers or Politicians. My business is property, but mainly overseas which is in a worse position at the moment
Why should a developer warn the public. Pretty pointless really. The Banks caused the problem and they should suffer.
Why should a developer warn the public. Pretty pointless really. The Banks caused the problem and they should suffer.
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z109
Guest
YOU said that developers and politicians warned people, not me. YOU said it. George Lee is also not a developer nor a politician.
What is it with property investors? First everthing is on an upward trend. Then it is a temporary softening and the market is pausing for breath. Now that the writing is on the wall in letters ten feet high that BTL is in for a pasting, everyone knew all along and it was the banks' fault that they were greedy and stupid. Yield of 1%? Were people mad?
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mercman
Guest
yogan - 100% correct, but i never mentioned developers sent out warnings. If anybody brought a Business Plan to a Bank depicting a 1% return they would be shown the door. But didn't you know your friendly Bank Manager knows it all and they are the biggest clowns of all. I recently heard of a BM that has been suspended from duty for his careless lending. The exact same person was the Bank's pride and joy a few years ago.
Now it is not bitter, don't be so reactionary. That's typical of Irish, because I don't live in Ireland I don't know anything about my homeland! I am proud of being Irish but it's not the only thing in my life. Why would I want to keep myself down too
It is the absolute truth though that the whole property speculation thing was a load of BS, everytime I went home they were droning on and on about it. A whole language had developed since I was away consisting of First Time Buyers, Property Ladders, Buy to Let, Stamp Duty... it seemed to dominate everything.
Why do you need the banks and the developers to warn people, they make money, it is the government's job to regulate and to warn people and in the end it is the individuals job to make a mature decision themselves. the banks didn't cause the problem alone, it was the older generation telling their adult kids you need to buy now because look our house has increased so much and it was peer pressure and conformity. There was no regulation and no thought put into any of the new construction, it was obvious to me from seven years ago that high density development was the way to go in Dublin (environmentally, energywise, convenience, quality of life) but everybody in the surrounding areas wanted to get rich rezoning agricultural land for farmland and sure we all want houses even though they are 50 miles out of the city and you need to spend 3 hours a day driving in and out on jampacked roads.
http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/1114/housing.html
The property boom thing wasn't anything to be so boastful about, it just resulted in a lot of overdevelopment in outlying counties in the main without any infrastructure that could even compare to a city in Asia. The valuation of everything was going up to massive levels but nobody could actually explain why!
The other thing that was obvious was the massive flash consumer culture that came in big time. When I left there weren't many SUVS, LV handbags floating round but they had really become ubiquitous over the matter of a few years. It just looked like a clone of any large city in the UK. Believe it really was a big change from when I left around 2000.
I lived outside Ireland for a long time so it was very easy to pick up on the changes. Overall it will be good for me when I go back because I can rent a good place for cheap. I think the last 5 years of the boom was good for getting a more diverse country but it didn't really add value to Ireland as a nation. I was setting up a business outside the country but I didn't even bother approaching any of my Irish friend to see if they were interested. They could easily have invested their spare cash but sure everybody knows property is the guaranteed way to riches... as if bricks and mortar were something that produced value. The property market had sucked up all the investment capital in Ireland that could have produced something that added value to the economy and to the future.
Notice I mentioned the last 5 years, not the lead up to it.....
It doesn't matter what politicians or developers or Lee or McWilliams or economists or banks or newpapers (with ads from developers) said. When you decide to purchase a property and get a 100% mortgage, with furniture on credit, no savings, and a car (brand new) on HP, credit cards maxed and overdraft to boot who should be blamed, I don't understand this blaming someone else mentallity. I too live out of Ireland but I keep in close touch, I'm shocked at the fact that after all the boom there is still not one motorway, water services are deplorable in many areas, houses and apartments built with no thought as to services, many apartments built without proper soundproofing and not built to a proper size for families and worst of all is that places like Carlow and Leitrim are commuter belts for Dublin - sheer madness. I don't think the recession will affect me personally unless my other half losses his job, and I can't rent my property in Ireland. We can ride it out, I don't care if interest rates go up as I've all of them fixed, and actually costs are going down this year for us as the youngest starts school in September. The only bills that will go up are home heating and I'm thinking of getting more double glazing and solar panals. My car is very small and my commute short so petrol costs going up don't really affect me.
Mercman, I find the position you take in the "blame game" a little hard to understand. On the one hand you're saying that the developers, who pushed through as many developments as they could and talked up the market, have done no wrong since that is the business they are in. On the other hand though you're saying that the banks, who are in the business of making money from lending, are guilty of being reckless for pretty much doing the same? To my mind it seems like both were simply trying to maximize their business (reckless as it may have been).
Above either of these parties though I don't know why you fail to see that it is the regulators job to ensure that things do not get out of hand or jeopardize the well-being of the country? I'm not sure how anyone can be satisfied with the performance of our Central Bank quango in this whole sorry episode of Irish history to be honest. Standing on the sidelines, harping on about the risks doesn't sound like a very effective stance to take when trying to guarantee the stabilty of the Irish financial system.
Above either of these parties though I don't know why you fail to see that it is the regulators job to ensure that things do not get out of hand or jeopardize the well-being of the country? I'm not sure how anyone can be satisfied with the performance of our Central Bank quango in this whole sorry episode of Irish history to be honest. Standing on the sidelines, harping on about the risks doesn't sound like a very effective stance to take when trying to guarantee the stabilty of the Irish financial system.
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mercman
Guest
In case you hadn't realised it, but the Irish gave control of their financial system to Europe a few years ago. It is one thing for a developer to sell their product. -- it is a completely different scenario when Banks become reckless with their deposit account holders money. A regulator will not (hopefully) control supply and demand. We are a democracy - with a heap of people are now suggesting some type of communism in having the top level control the lower levels - not for me. Good times will return and it wouldn't be too long. The current blip might just put some manners on those who thought they were beyond reproach.
Nonsense. Giving up control of monetary policies is very far removed for giving up control of the financial system.
Regulations are an important part of any functioning economy. Even your beloved developers have to follow regulations regarding planning, safety etc. I get the feeling that our Financial Regulator was asleep at the wheel and allowed the banks to sell whatever products they wanted to the public. Is this the fault of the individual banks who like the developers are simply there to make as much money as they can?
Not too sure who you think was suggesting communism as a solution.
As for the good times returning in Ireland, I hope you're right but looking realistically at the situation this looks a lot more than a blip to me.
If only....... they'll just come up with something new and we'll find out about it in 10 years time.
starlite68
Registered User
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how can you describe whats happening in the country now as just blip!
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mercman
Guest
In the main it is the property and construction sectors which started the downturn, and has now spilt into Consumer spending. Take a look around. The large employers are still carrying on although not at over zealous levels. The downturn we have in Ireland is similar to the situations in most Western European Countries albeit worse in most cases. As other posters have already mentioned, the class of spending and excesses here were ridiculous.
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mercman
Guest
Just to clarify to those that want to be so smart and quick to pass deleterios comments, I do not and never have dealt in residential property.
starlite68
Registered User
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the problem is that consumer spending is going to be less and less as people thighten their belts...i have started to cut back on all but the nessades myself.
I agree; I don't know what they are but cutting your nessades sounds painful!
My Bet is this recession hasn't hit home jut yet with the majority out there, Dublin Airport is as busy as ever with Sunseekers, people are still splashing the cash in the Bars and Nightclubs, the big shopping malls appear to be as busy as ever..but oh boy it will soon, expect a frosty winter!
Actually this isn't the case. People may still be going to the Malls but it's somewhat remaniscent of Dawn of the Dead, people go there out of habit but aren't making any purchases. Next time you're walking round a Mall that you reckon is busy with people have a look at the tills - invariably the staff will be chatting idly to one another.
Or else they are busy because most shops are now selling goods at massive discounts.
starlite68
Registered User
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i notice a few shops in the square tallaght have closed in recent weeks...i would say the overheads are very big in these places.