Key Post How to bet on Bitcoin falling

Brendan Burgess said:
Is there a typo somewhere? I have not "spread bet for <$100" - I don't even know what that means.

I have a spread bet where I have "sold" Bitcoin at $14,500. If I close out when it's $13,500 I make $1,000. If I close out when it is €17,500 I make $3,000.

If it does not rise to $34,500 beforehand, I will probably close out when Bitcoin falls to $3,000.

Brendan
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Come on Brendan, you know what I mean by that. You are predicting that BTC will drop below $100 by the end of the year so you've taken a short on a spread bet with that in mind.....that's what I'm referring to. You don't need to explain how a short trade/spread bet works.......although you didn't even do that properly, you don't make $3k if you close it out at $17,500.....you LOSE $3k!
 
Negotiator said:
Come on Brendan, you know what I mean by that. You are predicting that BTC will drop below $100 by the end of the year so you've taken a short on a spread bet with that in mind..
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I had absolutely no idea what you meant.

This is my first spread bet and I understand that it is open-ended. I can close out tomorrow if I want to. Or I can let it run for a year. The end of the year and $100 have no relevance at all.

I am telling you with certainty that there is no value in Bitcoin and that it will fall to zero at some stage.

I think it will be worth less than $100 by the end of the year, but I would not bet on that. As I have said repeatedly, it is not possible to time irrationality.

I am very happy to bet that it will be worth less than $15,000 at the end of the year - I expect to collect on that. I am fairly happy to bet that it will be worth less than $5,000 - I will probably collect on that, but I may well lose that bet. There is no option to bet on it being worth less than $100. Not sure what odds I would require for that.

I can get 2.4 on a price less than $5,000 which I judge to be good odds.

upload_2018-2-19_14-15-12.png


There goes another €22!

Look at the range of forecasts.

upload_2018-2-19_14-12-22.png


Everybody, including the long-term bears, who made a forecast for the end of 2017 had too high a forecast.

It closed at $13,860

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Everybody, including the long-term bears, who made a forecast for the end of 2017 had too high a forecast.
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It's great that you captured the price predictions in the spreadsheet like that, we should do a few more of those but perhaps do it by years and add in different Cryptos to the mix.

You got lucky with the crash happening just a few days before the end of the year but I suspect the bulls will be closer to the price targets than the bears by March 17th but we'll have to wait and see. There are only really 2 bear predictions to use and I note you didn't put your neck out on that one. I know you don't like making short term price predictions but in the spirit of the game at least give some sort of figure?

I'll go with $11,237.86 for March 17th and $15,488.11 for end of 2018........how about that for a precise figure! :D
 
I don't guess Price because the volatility follows-on from Government statements and Central Banks statements.
It's basically media-driven, which is rather hard to predict with accuracy.
At any moment they could say something negative and drive the price down, or they could say something positive and drive the price up.
It makes a poor basis for price discovery in my opinion, and it's more akin to good old fashioned price manipulation.
 
Brendan Burgess said:
It's not a question of liking making predictions. I know that I can't make any meaningful short-term prediction.

Brendan
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Where's your sense of fun? It's not punishable by the death if you get it wrong! :D I don't like making short term prediction either but at least we'll be able to give each other a hard time based what we committed to paper! haha
 
Was just looking at Bitcoin on IG there Brendan.
It says that you get 0.0137% per day 7 days a week when short on it. Is that on the €14000 starting value for yourself ?
This bet is a nice earner for you !
 
Hi Richie
It was a nice little earner at the start.
Then they changed it.
To be honest, I find the statement very difficult to understand, but as the income from it is quite small compared to the gains from the price fall, I haven't spent any time trying to understand it.

If you felt that a share was "a bit" overvalued or undervalued, these charges would certainly eat into your profits or magnify your losses.

Brendan
 
Hey Brendan
Bitcoin is now above $10,000
Is their a point at which you will be forced to cash out of your short bitcoin speculation? I can’t remember how you structured it?
 
Nobody knows nothin. The average price that I sold my bitcoin is a fraction of its current price...…..a lot of people that I respect told me that I was mad to have sold so...…………...late!!
 
Hi landlord

Good point. I had forgotten about that.

I sold at around $14,300 and set the stop at $25k

But when Bitcoin fell, I reduced the stop to $15k

I might put it up again.

Brendan
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi landlord

Good point. I had forgotten about that.

I sold at around $14,300 and set the stop at $25k

But when Bitcoin fell, I reduced the stop to $15k

I might put it up again.

Brendan
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Excellent strategy, i wish i had your deep insight into crypto
 
I think technically speaking bitcoin is massively over bought in the short term and will correct down to it’s 100 day exponential moving average which is currently somewhere between 6 and $7000. Obviously if the price continues to go up that 100 day exponential moving average will continue to rise with it.
I started rebuying at $8000 and will be happy to take some profits soon. A parabolic move like this will always have a severe correction at some point.
 
landlord said:
I think technically speaking bitcoin is massively over bought in the short term and will correct down to it’s 100 day exponential moving average which is currently somewhere between 6 and $7000. Obviously if the price continues to go up that 100 day exponential moving average will continue to rise with it.
I started rebuying at $8000 and will be happy to take some profits soon. A parabolic move like this will always have a severe correction at some point.
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Are you saying that what goes up sooner or later will go down?
 
Brendan Burgess said:
Hi landlord

Good point. I had forgotten about that.

I sold at around $14,300 and set the stop at $25k

But when Bitcoin fell, I reduced the stop to $15k

I might put it up again.

Brendan
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Hope you changed your stop.....
Bitcoin reached $13,000 this morning and seems to be gaining on average $1,000 ish a day.
The strength of this parabolic move is incredible, especially considering it’s a “worthless” asset!!
 
landlord said:
The strength of this parabolic move is incredible, especially considering it’s a “worthless” asset!!
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That's the nature of a purely speculation driven asset. ~95% of trades are washes, and there is still little or no volume relating to people using it to pay for stuff.
 
Leo said:
That's the nature of a purely speculation driven asset. ~95% of trades are washes, and there is still little or no volume relating to people using it to pay for stuff.
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Could you share the data from which you calculated your 95% wash trading? Thanks!
 
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