How long before nation states buy bitcoin?

[WolfeTone]

Can we hear your price prediction for BTC in the next year?

Yes, but reading that Fed Reserve nonsense again, I will have to make some adjustments.

 

[tecate]

Can we hear your price prediction for BTC in the next year?

No offence to Wolfie but I think we should approach matters sequentially. How about you tell us what your rationale is for holding bitcoin? That item is outstanding since 2020.

Would you recommend the Duke holds bitcoin? He might consider it if - as a neutral - that rationale comes from you.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Would you recommend the Duke holds bitcoin? He might consider it if - as a neutral - that rationale comes from you.

With all due respect to @Dublinbay12 I will take my guidance from a very eminent professor

bitcoin is not a currency
it is not a medium of exchange
it is not a unit of account
Proof of Work is obscenely inefficient
it is not scalable
it has no regulatory oversight
it has no assets
it has no income
it is not a store of value
it is a speculative bubble

This guy commands respect:

Roubini is one of few economists who predicted the housing bubble crash of 2007–2008. He warned about the crisis in an IMF position paper in 2006. Roubini's predictions have earned him the nicknames "Dr. Doom" and "permabear" in the media. In 2008, Fortune magazine wrote, "In 2005 Roubini said home prices were riding a speculative wave that would soon sink the economy. Back then the professor was called a Cassandra. Now he's a sage". The New York Times notes that he foresaw "homeowners defaulting on mortgages, trillions of dollars of mortgage-backed securities unraveling worldwide and the global financial system shuddering to a halt". In September 2006, he warned a skeptical IMF that "the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, and, ultimately, a deep recession". Nobel laureate Paul Krugman adds that his once "seemingly outlandish" predictions have been matched "or even exceeded by reality."[/quote]
It is of course possible that given the anonymity of this blog that either or all of @Dublinbay12 , @tecate or @WolfeTone can match these impressive credentials. Most likely is @WolfeTone who appears to have developed a "nuanced" model for predicting BTC prices which has had an impressive record if not quite up to the professor's prediction of the financial crisis.

 

[DublinHead54]

Yes, but reading that Fed Reserve nonsense again, I will have to make some adjustments.

I think I should get a share of your profits after giving you a heads up that the largest component of your model made a massive announcement you were unaware off. I hope you don't have to go back and retract some of your opinions. Nevertheless I doubt we'll get a prediction with any certainty given you admit your model is crude, based of inaccurate price predictions, gets things wrong and can't time the market.

I'll just take the simple wins though and be grateful you finally provided clarity.

I'll retire from this thread, Have a great weekend.

P.s if you do want to share your profits, pm and I'll send you my bitcoin address.

 

[tecate]

With all due respect to @Dublinbay12 I will take my guidance from a very eminent professor bitcoin is not a currency

This guy commands respect:

All the more reason though for @Dublinbay12 to clarify. He is the first active participant to declare himself neutral above all others - whilst telling us he holds bitcoin. There must be something unique and interesting here as i have never seen an instance where he expressed anything positive about the world's foremost decentralised cryptocurrency. In fact in 2020 he openly ridiculed the notion of the decentralised element of the currency. It would be fascinating to hear how someone who sees no value in decentralisation relative to a digital asset can justify or see value in holding it.

If you're not suitably impressed by the response Duke, then you can resume your attendance at the Roubini school of Wahhabist Indoctrination.

 

[WolfeTone]

US inflation, reasons to be worried

Here is one for the CB cultists. The language in this says it all. But due to the life-long indoctrination, the faith, it passes for reasoned logical comment.
Not so much the commentator himself but rather the comments from CB.

In case you hit a paywall;

"It would be fair to conclude that inflation expectations are moving up. But, at current levels, they will not concern the Federal Reserve all that much..."
- Well, that's ok then. As long as CB is not concerned then there is nothing for anyone to be concerned about?

"... as Jay Powell, Fed chair, said last August, “we will seek to achieve inflation that averages 2 per cent over time. Therefore, following periods when inflation has been running below 2 per cent, appropriate monetary policy will probably aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time.”

What is he talking about? What does "averages over 2 per cent over time " mean? How much time is he talking about?

"Therefore, following periods when inflation has been running below 2 per cent, appropriate monetary policy will probably aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 per cent for some time.”

So how long has this period of inflation to last? What is 'moderately above 2%'?

Here we go:

"Because inflation has fallen short of the goal by a cumulative total of 5 percentage points since 2007, this could justify, say, 3 per cent inflation for five years, before a return to 2 per cent."

So having failed to reach a 2% target on average over the last 14yrs (average was 1.65%, or 17% short of the target on average, every year, for 14yrs) it is now suggested that a 3% would be sustainable for 5yrs before returning to 2% (the target that has not sustained for 14yrs).

Perhaps I'm being a little harsh? Perhaps an average of 1.65% instead of average of 2% over 14yrs isn't such a bad result considering the innumerable variables of an economy so big?
On the face of it probably not, not to the faithful anyway. But are there any other factors worth considering? The commentator highlights four factors of concern. This is the most significant.

"The government and substantial swaths of the private sector have huge debt liabilities and borrowing plans."

So while CB's were celebrating and congratulating themselves on 'managing' inflation, that inflation was being exported as debt onto the balance sheets of sovereign, corporate and individuals disproportionately boosting asset prices.

Speaking of volatility, it is said here that the depreciation of US$ is 2% pa over the long term.

Somewhere between 20-25% of all US dollars circulating were printed into existence were in 2020.
In order to sustain an average 3% inflation rate over next 5yrs, CPI basket of goods will have to near double in price in that period.

Good luck 'managing' that (average) 3% inflation rate target.

massive announcement you were unaware off.

What are talking about? I was aware of the policy before the official announcement. From last May, page 40 - Hyperbolic thread.

Keep up man!

 

[DublinHead54]

What are talking about? I was aware of the policy before the official announcement. From last May, page 40 - Hyperbolic thread.

Keep up man!

Wolfie, not only do you have a model to predict the price of bitcoin to a "near bullseye". But you also saw into the future last may to know that in June 2021 the FRB would "change their policy" and bring forward their schedule for raising rates. All this whilst in the middle of a global pandemic. You are wasting your talents on this forum!

Tell me this, whats the euromillion numbers for tonight?

 

[tecate]

Tell me this, whats the euromillion numbers for tonight?

It seems we stand a far better chance of getting the winning euromillions numbers from Wolfie than a smidgen of honesty from you in this discussion.

What is your rationale for holding bitcoin? Should Duke own some based on that rationale - whatever it is?

 

[WolfeTone]

Wolfie, not only do you have a model to predict the price of bitcoin to a "near bullseye".

Do I? Since when? I know I made a prediction last Nov 2020, based on my model, that to all intents and purposes was "near bullseye" within 2 months.
But I'm pretty sure I've mentioned how my predictions have been way off the mark too? Did you skip by those comments? You know the one where it actually went to $54k and I cashed out a portion because it was way beyond my prediction?

Even though did rise to $60k, think of all the people that you think follow my lead and dodged a price crash.
Isnt that right? You feel 'sorry' for anyone buying bitcoin over $30k based on my predictions - I sincerely doubt anyone has because outside your good self you seem to be the only one who considers my posts as financial advice
But somewhat inconveniently for you, by following my activity and selling at $54k, they would have made a tidy profit.

Tell me again, why do feel 'sorry' for anyone buying bitcoin over $30k?

But you also saw into the future last may to know that in June 2021 the FRB would "change their policy" and bring forward their schedule for raising rates.

What are you talking about? The link to the Fed Reserve quoting Powell was from last May, and his quote was from the previous August.
Surely anyone awaiting

one of the most important pieces of information in the global financial system

would have some sort of inkling of the policy approach in advance of any official announcement? Surely?? Please don't tell me you had no prior knowledge of what was being piped by official channels through the media, for MONTHS in advance?

 

[DublinHead54]

.

would have some sort of inkling of the policy approach in advance of any official announcement? Surely?? Please don't tell me you had no prior knowledge of what was being piped by official channels through the media, for MONTHS in advance?

Wolfie you continue to astound me with your lack of knowledge but shear belief you are right despite how much you contradict yourself in every post.

I give up, I can't handle your contradictions any longer.