How long before nation states buy bitcoin?

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Can you hear the echo?
A poster in another thread raised a very interesting possibility.
"If bitcoin shoots for the stars", I quote, the poor of El Sal will be swan-ing around in yachts. He suggests this is a potential avenue of escape from a corrupt world order that condemns them to eternal poverty.
This poses a big dilemma for dictators in other third world countries. What if this dream scenario unfolds and their downtrodden citizens miss the yacht?
I can see a rush of said dictators to get on this band wagon whilst bitcoin is still going at a 40% discount to its ATH.
Buy! Buy! Buy!
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Can you hear the echo?
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What echo would that be Dukey?

Just to be clear, the part I underlined - that's not a direct quote from the 'poster in another thread'?
 

HAVE FUN STAYING POOR
 
For someone who claims to work in the space, this is particularly clueless. Ask anyone that works in the sector which is the most crypto-unfriendly state in the US and 100/100, the answer will be New York. For most crypto startups, the BitLicense is an unworkable travesty.
 

As I have self exiled from the "hyperbolic" thread I decided to dump this graphic here.
Wolfie predicted a BTC price of $33.5k last November.
On 14% of days since then it has been within 5% of the actual closing price, as it is today. Not bad.
Better would have been $57k which has been within 5% nearly 20% of days.
One understands why he is jealously guarding his methodology. If everyone knew it he would lose his edge .
 
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Duke of Marmalade said:
One understands why he is jealously guarding his methodology. If everyone knew it he would lose his edge.
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Except my methodology is conditioned on accepting that I have got the price prediction way off the mark also and recognise that it is impossible to time the market.
Who knew when Musk was going to interject and the impact of that?

Speaking of the $57k... I think I mentioned I cashed out some at $54k?... not bad there either I'd say?

In the round, I think it is fair to say that my timing of buying and selling BTC has been good?
As I understand it, there are posters here who feel sorry for people who buy bitcoin at a price above $30k. Such is their concern they want to help people in making the 'right' decision on bitcoin.

If buying BTC above $30k is a bad idea, and they are here to help, why not reveal their methodology in determining why it is a bad idea? @Dublinbay12
 
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21st Feb 2021 @Dublinbay12

WolfeTone said:
Well at these prices I had to do some reflection
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WolfeTone said:
my bitcoin holding has become valuable, way beyond what I thought it could at this point. The psychology at play in this market is something I have never experienced before
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WolfeTone said:
So I cashed in a portion of my BTC today to cover my outlay and taking an equal sum profit as a feel good factor.
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See, I get it wrong alot of the time also.
 
A model based on incorrect predictions and an impossibility to time the market, where can I sign up?!

WolfeTone said:
Except my methodology is conditioned on accepting that I have got the price prediction way off the mark also and recognise that it is impossible to time the market.
Who knew when Musk was going to interject and the impact of that?
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@WolfeTone it is absolutely hilarious that you accuse me of misquoting or misinterpreting and then you do the same thing. I guess thats a great summary of how you process logic. What applies to others doesn't apply to you eh. I really hope you are just pontificating on an internet forum and don't believe yourself to be some form of Crypto investing rainman.

I have no model for valuing Bitcoin or other Cryptocurrencies, nor do I claim to. However, that has not prevented me from making and losing money. I put this mostly down to luck, I invested in Ethereum at $17 and Bitcoin at $1,000, I've tried to actively trade crypto multiple times, I was heavily involved in ICOs, you name the altcoin and I probably owned it. I had some wins and some losses, but nothing will ever beat the return I got from getting lucky with my timing to enter the market. I assume my non-modelled method has been more successful than your model.

I don't believe there is an accurate model for valuing Bitcoin, for the main reason you point out..... you can't predict what Musk is going to tweet. So it is surprising you continue to claim you have a model when also admitting you can't time the market or anticipate the impact due to tweets etc.

From an investment perspective, you should understand that none of this prevents an individual in assessing the risk of an investment. For example, this is why when selecting a fund in your pension you base it on the 'risk rating' not the methodology used price the underlying instruments. My objective in the other thread has never been to provide a valuation technique, so please stop incorrectly inferring that it was. I've asked you multiple times to provide feedback, but you'd rather just follow Tecates queues and not engage. At the beginning I thought, you were choosing not to, but I've come to the understanding that it's because you don't have the knowledge.
 
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So you are a complete gambler and a chancer. Now you are proffering to want to help others make informed investment decisions in the crypto space! All the while;

Dublinbay12 said:
I don't believe there is an accurate model for valuing Bitcoin
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Neither do I, nor did I ever proclaim to have. It is why I am not hear to offer advice or offer to help. I am simply offering opinion. What I said was I use my own model for interpreting such things as monetary policy of central banks (which I think is pertinent to bitcoin). If I feel that a particular policy will increase the price of bitcoin then I am more likely to consider buying it. I may turn out to be wrong, but that is the model I choose to use when considering buying or selling bitcoin. There are numerous other factors and sources. I listen to people who work in the area on the tech side, I listen to the economists, including Roubini. I listen to the policy makers and the regulators. I hear a lot of claims about 'crackdowns' and 'banning bitcoin', but when I tune into the policy makers and regulators, in the States for example, I hear a totally different tune.
I listen to the environmentalists and the fear about bitcoin energy usage and boiling the ocean and then I listen to bitcoin miners themselves and the innovation going into harnessing abundant clean renewable energy.

I read the predictions of people who know far more than me as kindly presented by @Duke of Marmalade

These are predictions from folk who know a lot more than you or I

And I decide if what they have to say has any merit or not. Then I make a decision whether to buy or not.


Dublinbay12 said:
For example, this is why when selecting a fund in your pension you base it on the 'risk rating' not the methodology used price the underlying instruments.
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Again, that is your opinion. My opinion would be a little bit more nuanced. I would be inclined to think that if selecting a fund for your pension that you may base it on the 'risk rating' but that you would be well advised to scrutinize to some degree the methodology used to price the underlying instruments for yourself.
 
WolfeTone said:
So you are a complete gambler and a chancer. Now you are proffering to want to help others make informed investment decisions in the crypto space! All the while;
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This shows that you don't understand risk. You think because I said I owned altcoins...that I gambled, which infers you think the cryptocurrency market can be like gambling? Much like you I cashed out my original stake, so to follow on the gambling analogy, I was playing with house money.... My overall initial investment in Cryptocurrency was based on a portion of my portfolio that I was willing to risk. I knew full well that I could lose my investment, but at no point did I ever invest money that I was not prepared to lose. So no, it wasn't gambling, nor was there a model.


This is just simply contradictory. You don't have a way to value Bitcoin, yet you have a model that provides the change in value in Bitcoin based on input parameters and your opinion?!

Lets look at an example based on some of the comments you have made.

You said Bitcoin is worth $34,500 back in November 2019. Bitcoin was trading in the region of $8-10k back then. You took your model based on interpretation of monetary policy and other various sources. You interpreted the information available at that time, put it into your model and came to the opinion that due to those interpretations Bitcoins value will change by ~25k to $34,500.

Can't you see it is contradictory to say you don't have a way to value Bitcoin, then in the next sentence say you have a model that estimates the change in the value of Bitcoin?!

I know on an internet forum it's easy to stick to your guns, but look for the sake of our sanity, I'm not going to hold this over your head if you just admit you don't have a model.
 
WolfeTone said:
It sounds like that no matter what was on sale you were having a bit of it. Did you not even try to understand what the alt coins were?
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He can't even clarify the rationale behind him (alegedly) holding bitcoin - what chance he can provide any clarity on anything else.

#ButImNeutral
 
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Dublinbay12 said:
I'm not going to hold this over your head if you just admit you don't have a model.
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Ok @Dublinbay12 I think I see where you are going with this. What you are stating is that I don't have a devised mathematical formula, where I input all the data and out pops a result that I use to value bitcoin?
You would be almost correct in that regard. I do have a crude mathematical formula but it is only as guidance and very incomplete.

What I do have is interpretation of a considerable amount of sources that either guide me into thinking that bitcoin is undervalued or it is overvalued. For instance, its hyperbolic price rise to $60K made little sense to me, over the short space of time it bore hallmarks of a mania, to me, in my opinion.
That said, the Duke opened this thread with bitcoin at roughly $25k(?) declaring its price to be 'hyperbolic' at that point. I on the other hand remained as bullish as I did in Nov 2020, and as it transpired bitcoin did reach $34500 shortly afterwards.

Yet, given your neutral stance, I don't see the same level of interrogation of Dukes 'hyperbolic' valuation? Why is that? And you yourself have declared to be 'sorry' for all those who buy btc over $30k. How have you come to this reasoning if there is you have no model to value bitcoin? Is it just a guess on your part? Seems like it. In which case, you are somewhat the charlatan to be professing to help others with sound investment advice in the crypto space.
 
WolfeTone said:
It sounds like that no matter what was on sale you were having a bit of it. Did you not even try to understand what the alt coins were?
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How did you infer that? Yes of course I did my research. I note you're trying to change the topic and twist the context. If you want to change the topic to discuss my investment in altcoins can we please first closet out the other discussion?
 

So you do have a model for valuing bitcoin?
 
WolfeTone said:
Yes. But you almost had me convinced that I didnt.
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You did a good job of that yourself! Back to my very original point. Given you've now admitted you have a model that includes a crude mathematical approach. Can we hear your price prediction for BTC in the next year?
 
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