House Market Weakening?

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I think we are going to hit 90K this year under some figures I saw in the press a while back, can't remember when exactly. We seem to be building many of them in areas outside of Dublin where there is not the demand but still in Dublin there is still a huge amount of immigration from the new EU states which is the only thing from stopping the rental market going belly up like it is outside the Pale
 

But the population increase of 100,000 is largely made up of Polish Builders who came here to build houses . Once you stop building houses they will leave to go to recently booming Germany and then you are losing a years worth of tenants as well as not building a years worth of houses.

Equilibrium That !!!!!
 
The market knows

On the original question, the stockmarket will be the tell. The prices of the banks, the builders and the building material companies with heavy exposure to the Irish market will have turned sharply down long before any weakness in the property market hits the news media.
 
Re: The market knows


Except they already have to some extent. The market is discounting the shares of the Irish finance sector relative to their UK/Continental counterparts precisely for this reason. Both of our largest banks have recently come out with upbeat trading assessments which the market promptly ignored, due to the property risk.
 
whathome said:
- Increased withdrawals at auction
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I know it is not really scientific, but a glance at the auction results page in the Times today showed an overwhelming majority of properties being withdrawn - over 70% in South Co. Dublin. Very high indeed.
 

The trouble with people (not you Neffa, Bertie, EA etcl) saying that the fundamentals are good, there is plenty of demand out there to pevent a collapse, are ignoring that nearly half of the demand would stop over night if house prices started to fall.
 
Neffa, re your supposition that there will be an over supply at current production rates (i.e. based on production of circa 80,000 units per annum) you may be right - but you have to remember that a large proportion of the units built in the past 3 or 4 years were actually holiday homes (a lot of which are unoccupied for the best part of the year). These should be stripped out of calculations when trying to figure out where we are re supply/demand position.
 
Just back on this again. I note that only one house in South Co. Dublin sold at auction in this weeks Times results. The other 9 were withdrawn, one sold later leaving 8 unsold.

It will be interesting to monitor this trend, especially given today's hike in rates.
 
There has been some pretty obvious "GET ME OUT!!" selling of Irish financial stocks with heavy property dependencies.

Although markets are down globally, we're often told that the Irish property market is different, special, safe etc

That particular mantra doesn't appear to be accepted by the markets.
 

Bang on. I've always said take away the EXPECTATION of future price gains and 2 things will happen. Buyers will dry up and sellers will question why they're subsidizing tenants
 
Other factoid of note from yesterday's Times is that there are 104,000 vacant/unrented properties in the country at present . Doesn't really point to a huge unmet demand, imho, even though we have 80,000 units coming on stream this year.
 
Neffa said:
Other factoid of note from yesterday's Times is that there are 104,000 vacant/unrented properties in the country at present . Doesn't really point to a huge unmet demand, imho, even though we have 80,000 units coming on stream this year.
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Do you have a link to this? sounds ike a great fact to pull out during th erecurring "property can't fail" debates!
 
In here:

[broken link removed]

Quote:

"There are currently 104,000 investment properties sitting vacant around the country, and these are not holiday homes . . . at the same time, we still have huge waiting lists of people who just want somewhere to live."
 
The cyclical nature Irish property market, there are two things that are always nearly true;

Property is either unafforable, or when it is affordable, it's overpriced.
 

quality! thanks!
 
Well I can tell you that as far as I can see the property market in Cork is still going strong.... we can expect the seasonal slow up for the summer.... which has traditionally not impacted house price growth to my recollection....

ninsaga
 
muppet n slang 1 a buyer of property paying an amount equivalent to between 40 and 50 times its annual rental value. Usually found in Ireland. 2 a property owner asserting that "rent is dead money" when they already pay a monthly mortgage interest charge greater than the equivalent monthly rent on the property. 3 a buyer of property in overseas markets who has never visited the country or researched local property law. 4 a group of puppets and costume characters created by Jim Henson and the company he created. muppetry n
 
Affordability will soon be hitting a wall.

sbpost:
A couple earning €76,000 a year which qualified for a mortgage of €430,000 last week would only qualify for a mortgage of €327,462 early next year, if rates continue to rise as expected.
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Now the banks could keep things moving up by unleashing even more "creative" debt products but they probably realise this will be self-destructive as investors continue to dump their shares over sustainability and interest rate worries.

Gosh, who could have seen this coming
 

Clearly the banks should buy more property! it can't lose!
 
Another (possible) indication of a weakening market - the Indo reported on Friday that the vast majority of Dublin properties auctioned on Thursday were withdrawn and one house attracted no bids at all.
 
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