House Market Weakening?

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sandymount said:
Where on the Paddypower site are these odds? Can't seem to find them.
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That market seems to have been pulled. It was probably only ever a publicity stunt, but they may have taken a lot of bets on one particular market and didn't want any more exposure. (5/2 on anything less than 10% in 2007 caught my eye, and my wallet).

For a bit of perspective on how expensive Dublin has become. Orange County in California now has a median price of E500,000 ($635,000) which is only about 10% higher than Dublin. Anyone who's ever been to California or even just watched TV will know that the OC is the preserve of multi millionaires.

[broken link removed]

Slightly odd that it's comparable to a semi-D in Finglas.
 
Howitzer said:
Slightly odd that it's comparable to a semi-D in Finglas.
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DO NOT confuse Median and Average, please . There could be s[broken link removed] in valleys to keep the median low in OC
 
2Pack said:
DO NOT confuse Median and Average, please . There could be s[broken link removed] in valleys to keep the median low in OC
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Well that is why I clearly stated median and posted the link.
 
yeah but you cannot buy a cheap trailer in Fingliss so the median calculation starts with the cheapest house. The average in Finglas would be lower though as there are no beachfront palaces in Fingliss at the top end .

Anyway the builders are jumping ship. The number of HOUSE STARTS has dropped sharply , not COMPLETIONS which are some 6 months behind starts.

Our 80,000per annum figure refers to completions not starts.

see

[broken link removed]

While it will not affect 2006 output at 80,000 units it will sharply correct the 2007 output unless the building industry starts building like billyo before the Galway Races next month

The builders will not start that phase two and phase three and phase unless they already have lads , heck they may leave the place in a sea of mud instead .
 
So the builders will kick off the recession by laying off workers. The poles return home and even more houses lie empty.
 
But not until about October this year. Poles go home and the rental demand disappears with them Dipole, I agrees totally.
 
2Pack said:
Anyway the builders are jumping ship. The number of HOUSE STARTS has dropped sharply , not COMPLETIONS which are some 6 months behind starts.
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Hmm.. could this actually help the "soft landing" scenario, as we may not end up with the massive inventories that they are seeing in the USA..?
 
Assuming that

1. The average house build uses 4 labour units
2. Takes a year .
3. Cost of labour about €140k reasonably.
4. 80,000 units completed = 320,000 labour units

Then 160,000 foreign labour units will feck off home when the
building boom slows to 40,000 units a year.

I was told elsewhere the sharp fall mentioned was = 40,000 units a year annualised ...the blurb is non specific .... but that March was awful cold ....which it was so that traditional springtime March starts may be pushed back to April for 2006 .

These foreign labour units tend to live 4 to a house , higher than the Irish average . 160,000 leaving will equal 40,000 empty properties . Half of a years supply. A full years supply in 2007 ON TOP of the years supply.

Not all foreign labour units are builders but the builders track the work just as we Paddies did so they will go to London for olympic work and to Berlin and to Barcelona as did Paddy in the early 1990s .
 
soma said:
Hmm.. could this actually help the "soft landing" scenario, as we may not end up with the massive inventories that they are seeing in the USA..?
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Why would anyone buy at these prices if everyone was to believe prices won't go up? This is the massive contradiction at the heart of the soft landing story.
 
Perhaps these figures on construction starts are designed to give demand a further push - after all dublin is under-supplied and fast running out of homes, so with even less completions due in years to come, all prices will rocket and even Sean Dunne will be able to make a profit on his Ballsbridge purchases.
 
Further to my point about soft landings. if you believed that prices never ever fall in real terms, and that an inflation-matching soft landing is awaiting us at the end of this run-up, then it's rational to borrow as much as possible and buy as much property as you could, and to continue doing so as your equity base grows exponentially. To not do so would be sheer stupidity on your part.



Oh but wait a second...........

 
Re: Getting out - Banks, Estate Agents, now builders?

Well that's not good news for anyone!
Would be interested in seeing the actual figures...
 
Re: Getting out - Banks, Estate Agents, now builders?

If you have access to The Irish Times website they have a slightly more informative article in Breaking News....
 
I wonder what the stats are for Dublin and other cities?? I doubt there is a slowdown in Dublin yet. Maybe builders looking at the 80k+ units a year and rental yields being terrible and interest rates rising dont wanna be left holding the baby.
 
the smart builders will not be left with any unsold inventory in a slump. The dumb ones will. The LEAD indicator of the slump on the sales side is that Allowances go up and up while the price of the property remains static.
 
walk2dewater said:
Why would anyone buy at these prices if everyone was to believe prices won't go up? This is the massive contradiction at the heart of the soft landing story.
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Because they might want to live in it? i.e utility value, what houses are actually for....
 
owenm said:
Because they might want to live in it? i.e utility value, what houses are actually for....
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The amount of people buying houses to live in is a large section of the demand. However, 40% of the people buying houses are buying them as an investment. This figure doesn't include people buying a new house to live in (trading up) but hanging on to their old house.

Furthermore, of the 60% buying homes to live in, how many are doing this earlier than they really wish to? Among my friends and acquaintances, number many de facto speculators. Buying a house to live in despite wanting to travel, or with intentions to move again in a short space of time, because they think the prices will only rise. I know several couples who have decided to co-habit and rather than renting for a year to see how it works out (sensible option) decide to burden themselves with a house because "rent is dead money".

If house prices remain flat in nominal terms, many of these buyers will not feel the same intense pressure to buy, lowering the overall demand.
 
2Pack said:
Assuming that

1. The average house build uses 4 labour units
2. Takes a year .
3. Cost of labour about €140k reasonably.
4. 80,000 units completed = 320,000 labour units
Click to expand...

According to the [broken link removed] of the labour force about 250,000 people are employed in construction. Not all of these would be dedicated to building new houses there are other forms of construction so there is nowhere near 320,000 people working on new houses.
 
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