House Market Weakening?
- Thread starter whathome
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I think it has for many people. You have to remember for many (most?) Irish, they believe property is a one way bet, so that influences many of their decisions. A small example - I am aware of a number of friends & family from "down da countrah" who have purchased property in Dublin which they intend to house their sons and daughters when they visit university. Because property prices can only go up as far as they're concerned, they feel that this will save on paying rent and is a no brainer investment. I know that some of these are lying empty at the moment. I really think it has all the signs of a pyramid scheme at this stage.madisona said:
madisona said:so why are the builders and Bertie saying that we need to build more housing to meet demand. surely they are not being disingenous
http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1628510&issue_id=14173
[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Capital's housing supply falling way below demand, builders say[/FONT]
DUBLIN is rapidly running out of new houses to satisfy the huge demand......... the Irish Home Builder's Association (IHBA) warned.
It said yesterday that in order to meet the current demand the availability of zoned and serviced lands must be examined.
.....the supply of homes over the next two to three years is significantly below the requirement,"
There is no way that one could accuse Bertie of being disingenous with regard to property.....
In a way I can't blame him but when you put all your eggs in one basket......
bearishbull
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people might be content to sit on empty properties for
-tax reasons,register a tax loss on unrented property and offset against profits elsewhere
-they may have busy full time jobs and dont want hassle
-they are very wealthy and a few hundred a month is too little for work involved
-they may be cash rich ,time poor
-they might want flexibility with regard to selling,if they rent it they might not get tenant out quick enough when they wanna sell
-they may wanna avoid alerting authorities to the fact they own property/assets
?????
-tax reasons,register a tax loss on unrented property and offset against profits elsewhere
-they may have busy full time jobs and dont want hassle
-they are very wealthy and a few hundred a month is too little for work involved
-they may be cash rich ,time poor
-they might want flexibility with regard to selling,if they rent it they might not get tenant out quick enough when they wanna sell
-they may wanna avoid alerting authorities to the fact they own property/assets
?????
i have been following this thread for quite some time and it makes for entertaining reading on a quiet Friday.
It is obvious that the property market in Ireland is seriously distorted and that the eventual unwinding of this excess will cause an inordinate amount of economic and financial pain, but the pro-property mindset has now become so deeply rooted in the national psyche that that it is seen as the only route to wealth.
a good friend of mine came was recently head-hunted back to Ireland after a highly successful career overseas. He had often joked to me about the Irish property mania and we both had talked about buying property back home once the bubble had well and truly burst. Now that he is back in Ireland and a proud owner of a period house in a desirable Dublin suburb he fully subscribes to the soft-landing / market-will-plateau philosophy.
It is obvious that the property market in Ireland is seriously distorted and that the eventual unwinding of this excess will cause an inordinate amount of economic and financial pain, but the pro-property mindset has now become so deeply rooted in the national psyche that that it is seen as the only route to wealth.
a good friend of mine came was recently head-hunted back to Ireland after a highly successful career overseas. He had often joked to me about the Irish property mania and we both had talked about buying property back home once the bubble had well and truly burst. Now that he is back in Ireland and a proud owner of a period house in a desirable Dublin suburb he fully subscribes to the soft-landing / market-will-plateau philosophy.
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Chamar
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I think another good example of our obsession with property are these tv shows like "househunters". When I watch, I have zero interest in the houses but I am always amazed by the people. They walk into these "rising damp" type-houses with faces like kids in a candy store as the pushy presenters nasally say "yes, and at €700,000 asking price you really are getting good value here".
gearoidmm said:
My father owns several rental properties and he does the whole landlord bit (I spend my time convincing him to not buy anymore properties and wish he would sell some of them). However, some of his friends own properties and do not let them. One guy owns three houses and they have been idle for between one and two years.
His excuses range from the sublime to the ridiculous and frequently change (currently it's the fact that he would be taxed on the rental income ... I know, I know). Basically I think he's not bothered. The massive capital appreciation gains (which people would do well to remember they haven't actually realised yet) has bred widespread complacency in a competitive rental market. That's my opinion anyway.
Btw, is anyone else putting money on the Paddy Power betting prices on the TSB housing index? I think 8-1 on less than 10% appreciation in 2007 is a stunning offer. I can only imagine the odds on depreciation next year!
madisona said:
I think this demand includes a huge number of people who want to buy just to leave empty and wait for appreciation. This demand does not mean there are lots of people with nowhere to live. It means there are lots of people with a ton of cheap credit.
Demand = people who WANT to buy houses, not people who NEED to buy houses.
bearishbull
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obviouslywhizzbang said:
ive been saying specualtive "demand" driven by cheap credit has been driving the market forward and enticing more to speculate,speculative booms are to a large extent self perpetuating untill they grind to a halt and enter reverse mode.my aunt who has a few properties (all rented and probably debt free) and bought them ages ago now is considering buying more as they are going up so much and "only go up",she is being enticed into the boom late by potential speculative gains,if it starts falling she wont buy anymore and might sell as her belief that they can only go up is shattered.
I agree completely. The boom is not rational or well informed so why will the downturn be any different?whizzbang said:
I don't see a soft landing...I am currently selling most of by property portfolio. This has been triggered as much by a new business interest and quality of life issues as a belief that the sky will fall in any day now but just as with stocks I don't believe in trying to time the market that much. I have made about €3'000 a week on paper over the last 4 years. Now I think I'd like to see it in the bank.
Thanskwhizzbang said:
None taken. It was a combination of blind luck and seeing the blindingly obvious. Now it's time to leave something in it for th next guy (maybe)whizzbang said:Please don't take it personally if I harbour a deep seated resent for your success.
G
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Nobody ever lost money taking a profit <cough>
sandymount
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Where on the Paddypower site are these odds? Can't seem to find them.
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