Government ban on new petrol and diesel cars pushed back to 2035

[Blackrock1]

I think the production issues resulting from covid lockdowns and ukraine war will last long into this decade. I think the car companies will focus on getting their conventional car production back up to pre covid levels, new cars are more expensive now therefore it makes most sense to sweat their existing production runs as they are so expensive to install anyway.

For PR reasons they will also be upscaling their electric car program but a lot slower than governments expect because setting up new production lines is a very expensive business. This is a completely different scale of production than producing smartphones or computers. You need heavy engineering facilities, steel smelters, aluminium suppliers, plastics etc on a large scale. They are very difficult prospect for a new start up which explains why tesla is the exception in the car production business.

all the materials you refer to are materials currently used for ICE cars, a lot of current EVs are built on platforms that can be used for ICE of EV, i think the change over for a big established car maker is being overstated.

 

[Leo]

all the materials you refer to are materials currently used for ICE cars, a lot of current EVs are built on platforms that can be used for ICE of EV, i think the change over for a big established car maker is being overstated.

I'd agree, many of the big players already have modular platform production in place that is a lot more flexible than the traditional model, accommodating multiple body varieties and vehicle sizes. Take VWs MEB that underpins 13 current production models, or the Hyundai E-GMP platform that underpins the Kia EV4, EV6, EV9, Hyundai Ioniq 5, 6, 7, and Genesis GV60 & GV90.

 

[joe sod]

I'd agree, many of the big players already have modular platform production in place that is a lot more flexible than the traditional model, accommodating multiple body varieties and vehicle sizes. Take VWs MEB that underpins 13 current production models, or the Hyundai E-GMP platform that underpins the Kia EV4, EV6, EV9, Hyundai Ioniq 5, 6, 7, and Genesis GV60 & GV90.

Yes but they are all electric cars I understand, so they can produce different models of electric cars on the same assembly line.
However a conventional car with front engine and transmission system is a different beast to an electric car with a big heavy battery that they need to spread over the car chassis and wheels.
As I understand they can't switch from producing conventional cars to electric and back on the same assembly line without substantial modifications and investments.
Therefore they will produce conventional cars for as long as they can once the prices and demand are solid and with the shortages of all new cars I think that will be the case

 

[Blackrock1]

Yes but they are all electric cars I understand, so they can produce different models of electric cars on the same assembly line.
However a conventional car with front engine and transmission system is a different beast to an electric car with a big heavy battery that they need to spread over the car chassis and wheels.
As I understand they can't switch from producing conventional cars to electric and back on the same assembly line without substantial modifications and investments.
Therefore they will produce conventional cars for as long as they can once the prices and demand are solid

look at the bmw i4 or ix3, they are the same as their ice equivalents apart from the motor and drive train, they even kept the redundant transmission tunnel.

 

[joe sod]

look at the bmw i4 or ix3, they are the same as their ice equivalents apart from the motor and drive train, they even kept the redundant transmission tunnel.

I think that's more about appealing to its consumers and branding, BMW has a certain image that they don't want to mess with too much by going down the electric car bling styling

 

[Blackrock1]

I think that's more about appealing to its consumers and branding, BMW has a certain image that they don't want to mess with too much by going down the electric car bling styling

If bmw didn't want to mess around too much then why was their original EV the I3 so radically styled? and the i8?

 

[joe sod]

If bmw didn't want to mess around too much then why was their original EV the I3 so radically styled? and the i8?

Probably because when these were introduced electric cars were more niche market and like all big car companies they needed to have an electric car. However now they have discontinued these cars and have gone back to the conventional BMW look for electric cars. Producing the battery in itself would be an issue and I doubt can be done on an assembly line, maybe a cleanroom is needed like in the semi conductor industry and we all know how expensive and problematic they are from our Intel experience

I bet they are using those assembly lines (for the i3 and i8) for the new electric cars rather than pulling conventional car assembly lines off for these. However I accept that during covid when production was down anyway they may have converted some conventional lines to electric cars.

Even though the body of these new electric cars looks similar to the conventional BMW I would be surprised if they are the same because they have to allow for the battery pack needing to be spread over the whole chassis rather than in engine bay, therefore those cars are probably higher and are not interchangeable with conventional BMW cars

 

[Blackrock1]

Probably because when these were introduced electric cars were more niche market and like all big car companies they needed to have an electric car. However now they have discontinued these cars and have gone back to the conventional BMW look for electric cars. Producing the battery in itself would be an issue and I doubt can be done on an assembly line, maybe a cleanroom is needed like in the semi conductor industry and we all know how expensive and problematic they are from our Intel experience

I bet they are using those assembly lines (for the i3 and i8) for the new electric cars rather than pulling conventional car assembly lines off for these. However I accept that during covid when production was down anyway they may have converted some conventional lines to electric cars.

Even though the body of these new electric cars looks similar to the conventional BMW I would be surprised if they are the same because they have to allow for the battery pack needing to be spread over the whole chassis rather than in engine bay, therefore those cars are probably higher and are not interchangeable with conventional BMW cars

have a read of this

BMW Bets Big on EV-ICE flexible architecture moving forward

Despite many automotive brands moving to pure EV architectures, BMW is going to stick with flexible platforms for both ICE and EVs.

www.bmwblog.com

 

[joe sod]

have a read of this

BMW Bets Big on EV-ICE flexible architecture moving forward

Despite many automotive brands moving to pure EV architectures, BMW is going to stick with flexible platforms for both ICE and EVs.

www.bmwblog.com

I was wrong in my assumption that they cannot produce conventional and electric cars on the same assembly but mainly for bodyshop and assembly work but that suggests that the battery cannot be produced on an assembly line.
What's more interesting from the article is that BMW didn't want to invest in new assembly lines like other manufacturers for electric cars because of the cost. Also they were not going to sacrifice their conventional car production runs to switch over to electric. That suggests they don't see the demise of the petroleum fueled engine in the near term. Also in this article from 2020 they saw the ban on new petroleum cars coming in in 2030 but that is now pushed out to 2035.

 

[Blackrock1]

I was wrong in my assumption and they cannot produce conventional and electric cars on the same assembly but mainly for bodyshop and assembly work but that suggests that the battery cannot be produced on an assembly line.
What's more interesting from the article is that BMW didn't want to invest in new assembly lines like other manufacturers for electric cars because of the cost. Also they were not going to sacrifice their conventional car production runs to switch over to electric. That suggests they don't see the demise of the petroleum fueled engine in the near term. Also in this article from 2020 they saw the ban on new petroleum cars coming in in 2030 but that is now pushed out to 2035.

its actually one of the reasons that despite owning over a dozen bmws in the past, their EV offerings dont do anything for me, the I4 is very cramped inside because of the use of this shared platform.

 

[Horatio]

I'm not up to date on the ev manufacturing topic and the batteries specifically but I would be surprised if the battery packs are assembled at the car assembly factory.

I presume they are bought in in a drop in ready state. Like the way a Driver's seat is not assembled at the car factory.

 

[joe sod]

I'm not up to date on the ev manufacturing topic and the batteries specifically but I would be surprised if the battery packs are assembled at the car assembly factory.

I presume they are bought in in a drop in ready state. Like the way a Driver's seat is not assembled at the car factory.

from googling you need another large plant in itself to manufacture the battery in Tesla jargon the "gigafactory" which literally means huge factory. To be fair making the engine is also a large undertaking for a conventional car. BMW does not have its own battery production plant but buys them in from third parties but it has plans now to build its own battery production plants. Obviously this is a major undertaking and investment for the car makers therefore the speed of conversion to electric cars will be decided by the big auto makers not by government bureacrats.
This also illustrates the ignorance of the irish government in wanting to ban the sale of new petroleum cars by 2030 as if it was something as simple as the "smoking ban"

 

[Blackrock1]

from googling you need another large plant in itself to manufacture the battery in Tesla jargon the "gigafactory" which literally means huge factory. To be fair making the engine is also a large undertaking for a conventional car. BMW does not have its own battery production plant but buys them in from third parties but it has plans now to build its own battery production plants. Obviously this is a major undertaking and investment for the car makers therefore the speed of conversion to electric cars will be decided by the big auto makers not by government bureacrats.
This also illustrates the ignorance of the irish government in wanting to ban the sale of new petroleum cars by 2030 as if it was something as simple as the "smoking ban"

The two go hand in hand, if governments have policies it will push the manufacturers as they know there will be a return on their investment.

I'm not sure what point you are making, the switch to full electric is well advanced for all the big manufacturers, audi have the q4 and q8 Etron with the q6 coming and I'm sure smaller cars, volvo are replacing the xc90 with a fully electric, Mercedes have a half dozen or more fully electric models.

 

[Purple]

you need another large plant in itself to manufacture the battery in Tesla jargon the "gigafactory" which literally means huge factory. To be fair making the engine is also a large undertaking for a conventional car.

I presume the large in changes to the dealer network, in that the manufacturers are pulling their dealership agreements with just about all their existing dealers and moving them to dealers which are owned by investment funds, is to free up the working capital they need for the new factories.

 

[rustbucket]

I would be more concerned about the public charging infrastructure demands by that time. All well and good banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars as long as the charging network is up to it by then.

 

[Blackrock1]

I would be more concerned about the public charging infrastructure demands by that time. All well and good banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars as long as the charging network is up to it by then.

again that will follow, if a majority of cars are electric what do circle k and the rest do, and remember anyone who can charge at home will do the vast vast majority of their charging in their own driveway.

 

[Purple]

I would be more concerned about the public charging infrastructure demands by that time. All well and good banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars as long as the charging network is up to it by then.

I don't think that will be an issue, as @Blackrock1 outlined. The issue, I think, will be where will the electricity come from.

 

[rustbucket]

I don't think that will be an issue, as @Blackrock1 outlined. The issue, I think, will be where will the electricity come from.

petrol and diesel generators of course. Where else?

 

[joe sod]

petrol and diesel generators of course. Where else?

Saw a picture of a tesla car in Ukraine with a generator fixed to the back so it can be charged. Hopefully there will be no more wars after everyone goes to electric cars or nobody will be moving

 

[Blackrock1]

Saw a picture of a tesla car in Ukraine with a generator fixed to the back so it can be charged. Hopefully there will be no more wars after everyone goes to electric cars or nobody will be moving

we dont tend to involve ourselves in wars so hardly a realistic concern is it.