Government appoints experts to consult on indebtedness

[Brendan Burgess]

Brendan claims to be a skeptic yet says he would not listen to skeptical arguments until _after_ they've been proven right - the strangest definition of the word "skeptic" I've ever heard.

In the same thread, Brendan himself said that he doesn't have the theoretical economic training to evaluate arguments related to the property market.

Canice,

They are very strange quotes?

he would not listen to skeptical arguments until _after_ they've been proven right

I can't find anything which you could even misinterpret to claim I said that.

A skeptic knows the limits of their knowledge. As I pointed out on many occasions, I am one of the few people who does not and did not claim to be able to predict house property prices. Most people think they know, when they don't.

I am wondering if you are confusing the word "skeptic" with "cynic"? They are completely different. They are often .

In the same thread, Brendan himself said that he doesn't have the theoretical economic training to evaluate arguments related to the property market.

Can't find that either.

 

[LDFerguson]

The consultation group will need to have some idea of where the economy and property market are heading. What assumptions will these discussions be based on? Will the group be permitted to discuss property prices?

David Duffy is an economist so presumably he will supply this input, insofar as it’s needed.

 

[LDFerguson]

I'm not sure is that sarcasm but I imagine there'll be some very hollow laughter at that sentence. Do you think that perhaps if AAM's policy over the past 5 years had been different, many people flooding here looking for advice might not be?

Are you saying that people made six-figure decisions based on what they read on an internet chat board? If they did, is that the fault of the board?

 

[jhegarty]

How about appointing experts who foresaw the mess? Crazy idea. Just a thought. There are some out there. Brendan himself has labelled some of them "sensationalist".

But this is a panel about debt , not a panel to predict the future prices of houses.

 

[canicemcavoy]

A skeptic knows the limits of their knowledge. As I pointed out on many occasions, I am one of the few people who does not and did not claim to be able to predict house property prices. Most people think they know, when they don't.

As far as I'm aware, that's not the definition of a skeptic - that's the definition of an indeterminist.

A skeptic is one who doubts accepted beliefs. The "accepted belief" in the past decade in Ireland was that property prices were based on sound principles, would continue to increase, and then would have a soft landing. People like David McWilliams and Morgan Kelly were skeptical of this belief. Yet I've noted that these are the people you seem to reserve the most ire for. It's a circle I find hard to square.

If you _have_ condemned those who cheer-led the property bubble in this forum, I apologise but I have never seen it.

Can't find that either.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showpost.php?p=958883&postcount=10

 

[canicemcavoy]

Are you saying that people made six-figure decisions based on what they read on an internet chat board? If they did, is that the fault of the board?

Are you saying that people take no heed whatsoever of Ireland's largest financial web-based forum? In that case, (a) what's its point and (b) why does Brendan use it to back up his "unique position" when appearing in front of Dail joint committees?

 

[LDFerguson]

Are you saying that people take no heed whatsoever of Ireland's largest financial web-based forum? In that case, (a) what's its point and (b) why does Brendan use it to back up his "unique position" when appearing in front of Dail joint committees?

There's a huge difference between (a) using sites like Askaboutmoney to gather useful information and opinions and (b) basing a massive financial decision solely on what one reads on such a site. The former is what the site is about, in my opinion. Anyone who would do the latter is certifiable.

 

[canicemcavoy]

There's a huge difference between (a) using sites like Askaboutmoney to gather useful information and opinions and (b) basing a massive financial decision solely on what one reads on such a site. The former is what the site is about, in my opinion. Anyone who would do the latter is certifiable.

Noone's claiming people solely based their decisions on Ask About Money. That's a strawman argument. I imagine noone makes their financial decisions on any single source of information.

 

[Coles]

David Duffy is an economist so presumably he will supply this input, insofar as it’s needed.

No doubt it's a minor issue. Is this the David Duffy that wrote the May 2006 Daft.ie property report? The report at the very peak of the bubble that failed to even recognise it?

I don't know... see, I'd like to have some people who actually have a clue about what's actually happening. Maybe someone like Morgan Kelly? I know he's not respected around here, but he has been right, consistently.

I know all these experts will strive to do their best for the Public (as usual), but it's hard not to be a bit concerned when one of them gave out this gem of advice in the Sunday Times newspaper less than a year ago.

If you’ve a real need to buy now – for example, if you are starting a family – don’t allow the fact that your job is a bit uncertain to put you off. If the worst happens, the government has ordered AIB and Bank of Ireland to lay off homeowners in arrears for at least a year, while other lenders must give them a six-month breather.

Hopefully nobody actually read that, eh!

 

[LDFerguson]

Noone's claiming people solely based their decisions on Ask About Money. That's a strawman argument. I imagine noone makes their financial decisions on any single source of information.

Exactly. Which is why I believe the reply to your earlier question (below) is "no". Askaboutmoney's policy has long been NOT to allow speculation on house price movements, but to permit discussions based on facts.

Do you think that perhaps if AAM's policy over the past 5 years had been different, many people flooding here looking for advice might not be?

 

[canicemcavoy]

Exactly. Which is why I believe the reply to your earlier question (below) is "no". Askaboutmoney's policy has long been NOT to allow speculation on house price movements, but to permit discussions based on facts.

People came to AAM looking for advice on buying property. Was anyone banned from the site for telling them to do so on the assumption that property prices would keep going up and would not collapse?

 

[jhegarty]

People came to AAM looking for advice on buying property. Was anyone banned from the site for telling them to do so on the assumption that property prices would keep going up and would not collapse?

I have been posting here for 5 years and have never seen a comment on rising prices treated any different to one on dropping prices.


People come to this site for advise on the process of buying a house (like I did) , not to find out if it is a good short term investment.

 

[janeymak]

So what if he's not an expert on property. All the so called experts on property got us into this mess so much good they are. Anyway this group is about debt not property. I'm glad Brendan is on the committee at least we can feel someone we 'know' is in there. I'm sure he's gained a wealth of experience with all the posts on AAM of people in debt.

Hi Bronte.

Have you read this?
http://quotesfromthebubble.blogspot....s-founder.html

 

[LDFerguson]

People came to AAM looking for advice on buying property. Was anyone banned from the site for telling them to do so on the assumption that property prices would keep going up and would not collapse?

I've no idea. I'm not a moderator. But I do know that people have been banned for speculating on future movements of property, posting their own theories about what way property prices "are going to go", etc.

 

[Howitzer]

People came to AAM looking for advice on buying property. Was anyone banned from the site for telling them to do so on the assumption that property prices would keep going up and would not collapse?

Just to be devils advocate, I'm pretty sure Qwertyuiop was.

 

[Papercut]

It’s important to bear in mind the aim of the committee & why it is being set up (to examine the issue of mortgage and consumer debt and to make appropriate policy recommendations.)

Let’s face it, whether people approve of the appointments or not is completely irrelevant at this stage. The reality is that these are the people who are on the committee. So I suppose the only way to influence any of their opinions is by using any means possible, & putting forward any constructive opinions/suggestions relating to the matter at hand.

Pointless bickering on a forum run by one of the committee members is futile IMO & only waters down any relevant thoughts/suggestions that might eventually filter through, & is a waste of a valuable platform that we know is at least being read by one of the committee members.

So, instead of grinding some sort of personal axe regarding what properties we bought/sold, how sensible we were/were not during the bubble or who said what & when, let’s take a step back, think outside the box & look at the issue at hand, not of what we would like it to be, & avail of what I see as a valuable opportunity to put forward any relevant suggestions that we can think of.

I wouldn’t expect Brendan to comment on any suggestions put forward on this forum, but I am confident that he would read & consider them. That’s a bonus – one which shouldn’t be squandered IMO.

 

[canicemcavoy]

I've no idea. I'm not a moderator. But I do know that people have been banned for speculating on future movements of property, posting their own theories about what way property prices "are going to go", etc.

Is it possible for someone to ask for advice on whether or not to buy property, and get sensible answers, if discussing the reasons for giving your answer is banned?

 

[Coles]

So, instead of grinding some sort of personal axe regarding what properties we bought/sold, how sensible we were/were not during the bubble or who said what & when, let’s take a step back, think outside the box & look at the issue at hand, not of what we would like it to be, & avail of what I see as a valuable opportunity to put forward any relevant suggestions that we can think of.

I wouldn’t expect Brendan to comment on any suggestions put forward on this forum, but I am confident that he would read & consider them. That’s a bonus – one which shouldn’t be squandered IMO.

+1. I agree completely. Hopefully Brendan will consider whether or not it is appropriate that he should be on this panel of experts.

 

[Sunny]

Pointless bickering on a forum run by one of the committee members is futile IMO & only waters down any relevant thoughts/suggestions that might eventually filter through, & is a waste of a valuable platform that we know is at least being read by one of the committee members.

So, instead of grinding some sort of personal axe regarding what properties we bought/sold, how sensible we were/were not during the bubble or who said what & when, let’s take a step back, think outside the box & look at the issue at hand, not of what we would like it to be, & avail of what I see as a valuable opportunity to put forward any relevant suggestions that we can think of.

I wouldn’t expect Brendan to comment on any suggestions put forward on this forum, but I am confident that he would read & consider them. That’s a bonus – one which shouldn’t be squandered IMO.

+1.

I don't really see the point of the panel but its there so might as well be used. Brendan, fair play to you for getting involved. I wish you all the best on it.

 

[janeymak]

+1.

I don't really see the point of the panel but its there so might as well be used. Brendan, fair play to you for getting involved. I wish you all the best on it.

Eh there's a problem that needs solving, that's the point. Its the panel participants that should be rethought.