good time to buy sterling?

No problem noproblem.

We can over complicate it but brexit is basically britain exiting the building commonly refferred to as the "eu". Dunno about the ins and outs of it but i do know that the uk wont be in the "eu" in a couple of years. Lets bet on this.
 
jim said:
Ill place a bet with you Bigshort that Brexit will happen! Its happening.
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I will bet with you. What odds are you offering. After all, there has been a referendum in favour of Brexit, the prime minister says Brexit means Brexit, the tories are way ahead in the polls.

Everything points to Brexit happening, odds of say 10 to 1 seem fair.
 
cremeegg said:
I will bet with you. What odds are you offering. After all, there has been a referendum in favour of Brexit, the prime minister says Brexit means Brexit, the tories are way ahead in the polls.

Everything points to Brexit happening, odds of say 10 to 1 seem fair.
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Betfair offering 4/1 on 2nd referendum before end 2019. So no actual Brexit should attract 8/1 minimum.
 
@Brendan Burgess How come we offer speculation on currency (even quote betting odds in fact!), but are not allowed to talk about house prices, which is more relevant to way more people? Is it time to repeal the house price ban?!!
 
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@TheBigShort interesting your analysis. I agree with you on buying sterling I think at these levels its a buy although at anything over 87p. Remember the euro is not exactly a rock solid currency now and that is one of the big strengths of UK economy that it stayed out of Euro. However all this brexit stuff is just silly, it's like the brexit Tories think they are having a wet dream and can play out all their fantasies. Because they are having a wet dream they are not thinking of consequences ala Scotland and Ireland because they think they will wake up. But why the rush to trigger brexit in the wet dream , do they think it will bring right wing governments into power in Germany and France and therefore bring an end to the eu as we now know it.
 
One thing about the Brexit referendum in Britain is that the House of Lords can basically say, "up yours" to it and it doesn't matter one bit who's in power or what majority they have.
 
joe sod said:
@TheBigShort interesting your analysis. I agree with you on buying sterling I think at these levels its a buy although at anything over 87p. Remember the euro is not exactly a rock solid currency now and that is one of the big strengths of UK economy that it stayed out of Euro. However all this brexit stuff is just silly, it's like the brexit Tories think they are having a wet dream and can play out all their fantasies. Because they are having a wet dream they are not thinking of consequences ala Scotland and Ireland because they think they will wake up. But why the rush to trigger brexit in the wet dream , do they think it will bring right wing governments into power in Germany and France and therefore bring an end to the eu as we now know it.
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Thats a fair point about the euro. My views are conditional on the continued existence of the EU, and to a lesser extent, the euro.
 
Soft/hard Brexit - immaterial.

If the UK leaves the EU, it will no longer have political representation, a seat at the table. That is the only thing worth wagering upon. The EU has special deals with a variety of countries and blocs all with differing characteristics. For a bet you need it black/white in/out. 'Soft' / 'hard' is just avoiding the issue - the UK is leaving.
 
Setanta12 said:
Soft/hard Brexit - immaterial.

If the UK leaves the EU, it will no longer have political representation, a seat at the table. That is the only thing worth wagering upon. The EU has special deals with a variety of countries and blocs all with differing characteristics. For a bet you need it black/white in/out. 'Soft' / 'hard' is just avoiding the issue - the UK is leaving.
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The UK is leaving the EU with a Prime Minister that campaigned to Remain, no coherent strategy, and with its only discernable demand thus far - to 'Remain' in the single market!
 
From an Dimensional Fund Advisors currency article I put on my website.

Academic evidence suggests that currency movements are difficult to predict in the short- to medium-term in a manner that is relevant for making investment decisions. Currencies differ from shares and bonds because they do not produce interest or profits; therefore, they do not have an expected long-term positive return. It is possible to profit from currency trading, but trying to do so is highly speculative and, on average, returns are close to zero.
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If you have €10,000 to play with, there are much better ways to make money than speculating on currency movements.


Steven
http://www.bluewaterfp.ie (www.bluewaterfp.ie)
 
Another blow for the Brexiteers today. If the wheels haven't exactly started to come off yet, some new tyres are definitely needed.
 
TheBigShort said:
Brexit wont happen.
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+1 The dogs in the street know it was the wrong call and given another go at it the result would be a lot different. The trick now is it arrange another referendum on it whilst saving face with the EU...
 
Firefly said:
+1 The dogs in the street know it was the wrong call and given another go at it the result would be a lot different. The trick now is it arrange another referendum on it whilst saving face with the EU...
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I wouldnt necessarily call it the wrong call. If people are offered the choice through the political structures and the people make a decision then their politicians should honour the result, that is democracy is it not?
I personally would not vote to leave the EU despite all its flaws, but if Irish people did vote to leave I would have to accept it.
My sentiment is that the political and business leaders of the UK, Ireland and Europe would have voted to Remain. They will use every obstacle, and more, that they can find to delay and ultimately reverse the decision. In this case, those obstacles will become so unwieldy and complex that in the end, Brexit wont happen.
It will be just another fine example of democracy being usurped to suit the interests of powerful minorities over the will of the majority. Although in fairness to the 'Remain' camp, usually the negotiated settlement comes before the vote, not the other way round. Imagine voting for something that no-one knows what it actually entails!
 
This court decision was always going to happen and the Prime Ministers threat to speed up Brexit was just a load of bull to appease the Leave campaigners. Have a look at Post No 27 on here written on 15th Oct. From now on pay attention when i'm talking to to some of you Elitists on here.
 
TheBigShort said:
Imagine voting for something that no-one knows what it actually entails!
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I think that's it. Money and jobs will start leaving soon enough and if offered another go, I think the result would be different.

Given what was at stake, perhaps a 2/3s majority would have been better.
 
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