joe sod said:I believe what happens to Irish property and the irish economy will not be determined by irish events but by global events.
nahdoic said:Well totally. We are the most global economy in the world. So when a world-wide recession hits, Ireland will be hit hard. It's only a matter of time. When this will happen and why is anyone's guess.
Gabriel said:Something like what happened after 911 perhaps?
zardebt said:Since the large amount of construction , the introduction of section 50 20 ....... I thought
supply would have exceeded demand.....
or is this report just IIB wanting people to invest .,,, and up talking the figures !
Would be very interested in feedback !!
Gabriel said:http://www.finfacts.com/biz10/irelandhouseprices.htm
“House prices in Ireland are finally responding to the scale of supply, and the era of double digit house price inflation may well be over. Demand for housing in 2005 is likely to remain strong, underpinned by strong employment growth and solid wage inflation, so a sustained price decline remains a low probability”, according to Dr. Dan McLaughlin, Chief Economist, Bank of Ireland Global Markets.
Bold text is my own.
CoffeeBrew said:And now for the small print ;-)
The words “looking forward,” “anticipates,” “probability,” “expects,” “will,” “believe(s),” “may,” “is expected to,” “likely”, and similar expressions, among others, identify forward-looking statements.
Readers should be cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements whenever any entity with a massive vested interest in the property market uses them, they speak only as of the date the statement was made and are subject to change without notice !!
zardebt said:As for the market has not reached saturation well I am not too sure about that ......
CoffeeBrew said:The demand for housing is always there. That's why when property prices crash they never crash to zero. Demand provides a floor.
CoffeeBrew said:In the event of a shock to the property market or even sustained pressure with increasing interest rates it's difficult to say how far that floor is below current prices. It ranges from overly optimistic (no correction) to darkly pessimistic. Personally, I'm concerned enought to adapt my own "Don't Buy Here" strategy.
tonka said:Dunno Gabriel .
Lets see, 60,000 leave school per year at 19 ish and 'form' a household with an average of 3 persons. Thats requires 20,000 gaffs a year assuming nobody fecks off to Australia . Thereafter they recycle into other households but the basic formation group is aged about 19 .
60,000 immigrate requiring another 20,000 gaffs (actually its less because immigrants frequently sleep 5 or 6 to a house or flat to save money which is what they come here to do ) .
I make the natural household formation (rate per annum) out to be 40,000 by that reckoning and we had problems building more than 40,000 units a year until fairly recently.
Here is our build rate (from http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/doeipub.nsf/0/27f8d54f8e43126f80256fbd003f03e6/$FILE/HousecompletionsTable%20%202.doc )
Year Number of House Completions
1993 21,391
1994 26,863
1995 30,575
1996 33,725
1997 38,842
1998 42,349
1999 46,512
2000 49,812
2001 52,602
2002 57,695
2003 68,819
2004 76,954
Nowadays we build 80,000 units per year . Where are we getting the bodies to fill them again ????? I believe interest rates will remain low for a long time to come as well by the way .
zardebt said:"Wasn't zardebt's question that he's not sure whether we've reached saturation yet? Housing supply is directly related to demand."
...........just in case my husband is reading this ---ah I am a SHE ......
I wouldn't want him asking more question when I get home tonight other than
where is my dinner"...
Gabriel said:I'm not sure what point your trying to make here? Wasn't zardebt's question that he's not sure whether we've reached saturation yet?
No one knows what will happen to interest rates...but the general view is that they are likely to remain low for sometime and increases will be small.
Again, your presumption is that house prices are severely overpriced.
If you're wrong, which I personally believe you are, then you'll possibly never own a house in Ireland, waiting for the magical bubble to pop.
Gabriel said:If your logic/figures are correct, which I doubt, where are all the empty houses?
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