Future Shock: Property Crash

It highlighted why a "balanced opinion" is impossible. The bulls are going to be right or the bears are going to be right and there is no middle ground here. The "soft landing" theory has always been nonsense, this program has made it clear to joe punter just why this is.
 
I think a programme like this can contribute to a property crash.

If I was a FTB desperately trying to get on the property ladder it would definitely make me scared at the idea of taking out a big mortgage. The idea of negative equity is anybodys worst nightmare.

We've lived so long with the boom that perhaps some people need to be shown that property can go the other way. I've lived through poor times before but there's a generation out there who have never had to cut back & might find it very difficult to do so.
 
I thought that there were many assumptions made, but no 'health warning' that these were assumptions.

one was that USD/EUR would go to 1.70; another was that unemployment would rocket; another was that there would be thousands of forced sellers; another was that there would be no buyers and it went on.

They forgot to include the possibility of global warming causing desertification in ireland, hence the country being uninhabitable; the possibility of global warming causing biblical flooding in Ireland, drowning all properties under tens if not hundreds of feet of water; the possibility of a nuclear holocoust causing the world to be uninhabitable and lastly, the end of the world, where all would be housed either in hell or heaven.

On a more realistic note, I felt that even if prices fall, it should not cause a problem unless one cannot afford the repayments and this can happen even if prices rise but some misfortune befalls the owner.

If there are repossessions and people forced from their homes, they must still be housed and so the rental income will improve.

of course, it will all come true somewhere some day - otherwise it would not be on the telly.
 
I have alot of friends making a healthy living from Construction, none of them are particulary worried, and what people are failing to realise the housing is a subset of what is going on in the Construction Industry, there is comercial and Infrastructure (which takes up a large chuck of employment).

To be honest, what we are seeing at the moment is a wait and see, there has been soooooooo much speculation in the news about stamp duty that people have decided to hold off.

Interest rates are rising, no doubt and this is leveling off the price of housing which is no bad thing..
 
pinkyBear said:
...To be honest, what we are seeing at the moment is a wait and see, there has been soooooooo much speculation in the news about stamp duty that people have decided to hold off....
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I'm starting to come around to this point of view. One of the points mentioned in the programme was that FTB's make up the vast majority of borrowers (€8bn of a total of €11bn borrowed). If SD is reformed for these buyers then the market should pick up pace again.
 
I find it hard to believe that a programme like this will have any impact on sentiment. Did George Lee's Boom suddenly drive thousands to seek work in the civil service?
 
I was listening to George Lee on Turbridy this am. He said when the banks found out this programme was being made they 'put the word out' to people not to participate. How did they do that, I wonder?
 
rob30 said:
The quirky filming style made me sea sick!
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I wondered if this was specifically designed to induce stress in the viewer? Its very hard to think clearly when tv images are wobbling all over the place in front of you.
 
I thought this program was complete trite. Totally unbalanced. A few valid points were made but nothing new. The sentiment thread on AAM has much better views/points (even if I don't agree with a lot of them).

Firefly.
 
So the Euro is going to hit €1.70 against the USD and while the Euro rockets, the ECB is going to keep increasing rates?
Sure. That's gonna happen.
At least I know where my SSIA money is going, a new bunker, a tin hat and copious amounts of non perishable goods. It's all over. We're all gonna die!!!!!!!!!! (probably of a heart attack/brain tumour caused by the stress of a property crash).
 
I find it hard to believe that a programme like this will have any impact on sentiment. Did George Lee's Boom suddenly drive thousands to seek work in the civil service?
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Maybe not on it's own, but programmes like this, in conjunction with other negative viewpoints can definitely have an impact on sentiment. If you were considering trading up to a bigger house and a bigger mortgage and then get cold feet having watched a programme like this and read a few similar stories, that's one less buyer in the market. If too many people join you, that's a problem for the market.
 
Firefly how would you balance the program? Wheel out someone from Estate Agents who is telling you everything is rosey and will always be so. Are we going to be the first ever economy to be sustained by Public Service and Housing Construction.
 
LDFerguson said:
Maybe not on it's own, but programmes like this, in conjunction with other negative viewpoints can definitely have an impact on sentiment.
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Were you (or others) complaining when 10 years of TV property porn, "flip this house" and "I'm an adult, but I desperately need to be part of a Ponzi scheme" had nothing but positive impacts on sentiment?
 
shanegl, have to say when I heard the bit about tumours I thought the missus had turned over to one of those health programs again. I thought that was sensationalism but that is now what goes for TV, we have to have our attention grabbed by some awful dire piece of information. The dollar will not have to go 170. US/multinational companies are moving operations all the time, they are constantly looking for cheaper locations. Ireland no longer fills that space, so bye bye multinationals. We still do not have indigenous enterprises numerous or large enough to fill the void left by the multinationals. Again it is back to competiveness.
 
Perplexed said:
I think a programme like this can contribute to a property crash.

If I was a FTB desperately trying to get on the property ladder it would definitely make me scared at the idea of taking out a big mortgage. The idea of negative equity is anybodys worst nightmare.

We've lived so long with the boom that perhaps some people need to be shown that property can go the other way. I've lived through poor times before but there's a generation out there who have never had to cut back & might find it very difficult to do so.
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I agree. Many property books say that you should watch the media very closely in times of uncertainty, as they start the frenzy itself.

I am also thinking of holding off, negative equity, no thanks
 
On a more realistic note, I felt that even if prices fall, it should not cause a problem unless one cannot afford the repayments and this can happen even if prices rise but some misfortune befalls the owner.
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I've read this (and similar) a couple of times now on AAM. If (or when) prices fall it will have an impact on the whole economy. So much of the Irish economy seems to be tied up in property and related industries that it will be particularly bad.

Companies stop hiring and investing, and people who once could afford repayments no longer can. Taxes also increase to pay for all the unemployed people. People stop buying stuff and the whole cycle spirals downwards.

A crash wont just stop at property.



I agree. Many property books say that you should watch the media very closely in times of uncertainty, as they start the frenzy itself.

I am also thinking of holding off, negative equity, no thanks
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Self fulfilling prophecy.
 
umop3p!sdn said:
People stop buying stuff and the whole cycle spirals downwards.

A crash wont just stop at property.
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I missed the programme, dunno am i glad or not.
Were there any suggestions at all for preparation for the bust? Is it the case that we should just dash for the last remaining jobs in the civil service, stick our fingers in our ears and sing loudly?
Did they mention the softer landings other countries have experienced perhaps?
 
Luternau said:
just thinking
the first gulf war was the worlds first live telivised war from hundreds. Perhaps with the media interest in the Property crash Irelands will become the first live telivised property crash, where we will be going live to our reporter in downtown suburbia wher another person has just gone in to negative equity and to Charlie for another live reposession! And thats not even mentioning wht TV3 or Sky would be up to! ;-)
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Showing your youth there - Vietnam and the Falklands were probably the first televised wars, and the Texas property crash in the mid-80's was also extensively covered on TV.

BTW, Ireland does not amount to any great international interest, despite the recent success of the economy.
 
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