Future price of Irish properties

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The SBPost mentioned the fact the shares in Irish Banks have
been slipping steeply away from their highs causing a jolt to the system.

From the article:
AIB down 9%
BOI down 11%
PTSB down 9%

The article (hidden top right page M2 Oct 23) suggested that international investors may be dumping Irish banking shares.

Coincident with this, of course, is the increasing risk that the ECB may begin
the process of raising interest rates sooner and more aggressively than anticipated.

We can maintain the great property pyramid a while longer if interest rates remain low.

If there has been a serious miscalculation about inflation and interest rates take off in the EU as they have elsewhere then ..... TIMBEEERRRRRRR !!

Meanwhile expect upbeat news in the media about the property market.:rolleyes:
 
Some practical advice on Yahoo from the US.

"Five Ways to Defend Yourself from a Housing Bubble"
It quotes an economist Joel Naroff after US new-home sales hit yet another record high in June, "Welcome to our worst nightmare. It is the housing market."

These guys in America have no clue on what a real bubble is ;) For that they need to see how it's done Irish style: abnormally low interest rates and profligate bank lending practices with no real opposition.

Forget the Florida bubble with 96% increase over the last 5 years or the New york bubble with 78%.

They should come to Dublin 6 where a small semi-detached sold recently for over a million: a 1000% increase in value over the last 10 years or so.

Yeeah HA ! - 1000% ! Now that's what I'm talkin' about ! Let's see the Americans beat that !

http://biz.yahoo.com/special/afford05.html
 
The US market seems to be tanking under the pressure of over speculation and rising rates and in Auckland New Zealand the bottom has fallen out of the apartment market. Could Dublin suffer the same fate?




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ClubMan said:
RTÉ News today:

Central Bank report has warned about high debt levels, but it is now less worried about the possibility of a sharp fall in house prices.
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Is the central bank concealing what they believe to avoid destabilizing the market ?


From the Irish Times:

The Irish Times reports that senior officials from the OECD and the Central Bank recently accepted that the Irish property market is overvalued by 15 per cent, according to a confidential account of their meeting produced by the Paris-based body.
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While not disagreeing with the figure presented, the Central Bank officials indicated their nervousness about presenting such figures in public. The OECD records them as stating: "They suggested that any numerical estimate of overvaluation should be presented only with extreme caution to avoid destabilising the market."
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To read on:

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10003835.shtml
 
Duplex said:
The US market seems to be tanking under the pressure of over speculation and rising rates and in Auckland New Zealand the bottom has fallen out of the apartment market. Could Dublin suffer the same fate?




[broken link removed]
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I've heard that prices of semi-detached yak-herding tents in Tibet are coming under pressure. Maybe this could have some implications for the Irish property market too...:rolleyes:
 
You see no parallels between Ireland and New Zealand Sherpa? I wonder if there is any nation in a analogous position to Ireland, past or present, not willing or able to control crippling debt growth and falling competitiveness. Your mocking reference to Tibet might be apposite, but I’m pretty sure they have control of their economy.



Dr Bollard the governor of the Central Bank in New Zealand has issued more warnings about the risks of excessive debt, while our central bank spikes independent reports on the Irish property market. The lessons of the recent past about the damage denial can do to a society have yet to be learnt it seems.



Mr Quirk reckons Dr Bollard "stepped it up a notch" this week when he issued a fresh stern warning about consumer spending and the runaway housing market.

Dr Bollard told banks, homeowners and international investors they could be in for a sharp shock if New Zealanders are allowed to continue their current borrowing and spending.

He said he was willing to "take further action" on top of the eight interest rate hikes since the start of last year. Dr Bollard will almost certainly raise the official cash rate to 7.25 per cent from 7.0 per cent at the bank's next review on December 8 as he tries to tame the 3.4 per cent annual inflation rate.

Dr Bollard repeated his concerns that homeowners were continuing to spend more than they earn and many were "vulnerable" to interest rate rises, a fall in property prices, or their job prospects worsening.

New Zealanders' love affair with home ownership and borrowing money on their sole financial asset was a recipe for disaster, he said.
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http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3470648a1865,00.html
 
Sorry - I wasn't trying to be mocking (well maybe just a little bit). I was just trying to make the point that what happens in NZ has no more or no less relevance to the Irish property market than what happens in Tibet.

I happen to agree with your concerns about the Irish situation. I just don't think that pointing to overseas experiences is particularly helpful or relevant - everywhere is different. For example, I could be wrong but I don't imagine that Auckland is experiencing anything like the net immigration that Dublin is (to take just one example).

I honestly don't know what's going to happen to Irish property prices (neither does anyone else!), but I certaintly wouldn't be investing my hard-earned cash in Irish properties right now.
 
....experiencing anything like the net immigration that Dublin is
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I was reading about an immigrant yesterday & I though it just about sums up the Ireland of today and where we might be heading.

The SBPost told the story of a talented Polish Physicist who came to Ireland. His specialty I think was the physics of metals.

Now, is he researching metals and materials that might one day contribute to Irelands competitiveness on the international scene ?

Guess again ! He works carrying cement bags in support of a construction site.
 
I find it a bit disconcerting that the Central Bank would be loathe to release information that might destabilise the market. Do they want more people to get in way over their heads. I have a feeling that interest rates will go up by a good deal more than some commentators are suggesting at the moment which will leave a great deal of people in serious trouble.
 
CoffeeBrew said:
I was reading about an immigrant yesterday & I though it just about sums up the Ireland of today and where we might be heading.

The SBPost told the story of a talented Polish Physicist who came to Ireland. His specialty I think was the physics of metals.

Now, is he researching metals and materials that might one day contribute to Irelands competitiveness on the international scene ?

Guess again ! He works carrying cement bags in support of a construction site.
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What has that got to do with anything - in particular house prices!? Since he is from an EU state he is entitled to seek any job that he wants here in Ireland or anywhere else in the EU - including working as a physicist. However if such a job does not exist then we can't create one out of thin air for him or if he decides that he wants to work on the sites then that's up to him. I don't think that this individual experience says anything about "the Ireland of today" or relates to house prices in any way.
 
There's an old saying: if it looks like an elephant, walks like an elephant, and has "I'm an elephant" tattooed to its rump, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of its not being a duck-billed platypus.
 
Sherpa said:
I was just trying to make the point that what happens in NZ has no more or no less relevance to the Irish property market than what happens in Tibet.
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I don't know about that… I've been to Tibet and the Chinese are turning Lhasa into an identikit copy of many other pollution-choked Chinese cities. What price the Irish overseas property investor being targeted to release equity from their Irish property portfolio/ATM to invest in an apartment complex in Lhasa with views of the Potala Palace :)
 
Duplex said:
You see no parallels between Ireland and New Zealand Sherpa? I wonder if there is any nation in a analogous position to Ireland, past or present, not willing or able to control crippling debt growth and falling competitiveness.
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Spot on. It's a globalised world and in the medium to long run it'll be the global market that rectifies the inflated property prices in Ireland and we probably won't be able to do a damn thing about it as we watch prices go south.



Duplex said:
Your mocking reference to Tibet might be apposite, but I’m pretty sure they have control of their economy.
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Unfortunately not Duplex, as the Chinese control it and it is they who are benefiting from it and not the Tibetans.
 
Can you imagine an Irish minister advising the public of the risks of an overheated property market in this manner;









However the Minister for Business and Economic Affairs, Bendt Bendtsen, says there will be no helping hand offered to house owners if they do find themselves in trouble when prices drop.

“People must get used to the idea that house prices are going to be significantly lower in the coming years than they have been,” he said, adding that the Danish economy is in good shape and that most families will be able to withstand interest rate increases and a period of lower housing prices.
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Thanks for the Tibet info ivuernis, I'll get my coat if you'll dial a lama.
 
The Irish Times report that the OECD and Central Bank accepted that the Irish property market is overvalued by 15 per cent, but [font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Central Bank officials begged off sharing this with the constituents "in case it might destabilise the Irish property market" gives cause for fear - not only in that what many people felt about the property market in the past few years is confirmed, but in the decision not to disclose facts which are in the public interest and should be in the public realm![/font]

[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]An account of the meeting produced by the OECD, and seen by The Irish Times, states: "There is clearly a speculative element and econometric work by the OECD secretariat suggests prices are 15 per cent overvalued."[/font]

[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]The think-tank represents 24 of the world's leading economies, including Ireland. It conducts in-depth studies of a range of policy topics and issues policy advice to its member states.[/font]

[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Translated, does this not mean "The Establishment decided to support the interests of Big Money over the wellbeing of ordinary citizens, even in the teeth of uncoerced, expert witness".[/font]
[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif][/font]
[font=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]While not disagreeing with the figure presented, the Central Bank officials indicated their nervousness about presenting such figures in public. The OECD records them as stating: "They suggested that any numerical estimate of overvaluation should be presented only with extreme caution to avoid destabilising the market."[/font]

Clearly they can't disagree with the facts, and one can understand this 'nervousness' at a sudden outing of the truth.

Surely 'the truth' and an end to the upward spiral will bring the craziness to an end, no losers? The speculators and entrepreneurs have made their "fabulous wealth"; the ordinary punters have got something out of it by dabbling in the rental market through a couple of properties funded by interest-only loans.....so they have a few bob and a lot of experience; people needing homes or apartments to rent have benefited because everyone was watching "makeover' programmes on t.v., refurbishing,redesigning and making life more aesthetically pleasing........so they learned as well. The 'frenzy' kicked 'the system' into motion and now there are lots and lots of houses.........so first-time buyers and newly-establishing couples have more choice.

Where's the 'victim' of this truth that it had to be suppressed.......or have I missed something?
 
Government and business have a major interest in keeping this sort of information from the public domain.
I would guess that this 15% is on the low side as OECD, funded by governments, will not destabilise the Irish economy and produced a comprise figure.Politics is everywhere.
Early 1990`s, price of housing was 4 times average industrial wage, now its 12 times AIW.For me, this is a frightening figure.
As another contributor noted...Eur400,000 for something with a base value of Eur150,000..it won`t last.
Newspapers will be full of articles, by those who know, explaining why the market cannot fall....a day before it falls.The day after, we`ll be told the fall won`t last.
 
Interest in property is now a global phenomenon caused by Alan Greenspan. The whole english speaking world seems to be involved in it and the economist has rightly called it "the biggest bubble in history". Every english speaking country seems to be going down the same path of excessive consumption caused by cheap credit. When the bubble finally bursts it will be like falling dominoes, every country will be hit some more than others, whether it be ireland, eastern europe, australia, or america. No countries local factors will escape this global phenomenon. I wouldn't even bank on germany even though it never really was part of the bubble.
 
I'm still trying to absorb all the news on the Irish property market that has come forward recently:


1. Reports that Irish personal debt is on track to be the most severe in Europe

2. ECB (Trichet) drops big hints that action is needed to cool Irish house prices

3. IMF warns that house prices are overvalued

4. OECD warns that house prices are overvalued

5. ECB sounding very hawkish on interest rates. The upward movement could begin as soon as December or
early 2006.

6. Central Bank tries to soothe the public by moderating its warning on house prices

7. Confidential memo reveals the Central Bank recently accepted in private that house prices are overvalued but
did not want this fact to go public

8. Economist Rossa White stated house prices are overvalued by between 15pc and 20pc and risk a sharp fall,
while interest rates could rise as soon as next month


At least no one in Ireland can claim they weren't advised of the risks !!
 
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