Future price of Irish properties
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ivuernis said:
The NCB like most financial products sales people have to paint pretty pictures and tell nice happy ending fairytales to shift product. The thing is that I am starting to doubt the financial cop on of Irish people in general. (The Liberty Paradox).
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walk2dewater
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C'mon really. Does anyone take that NCB thing seriously. Surely it's damaging to their credibility, a bad marketing move I would say.
Well I thought he was very, and irresponsibly, soft/cavalier about it on the RTE news @6 last night.ivuernis said:
The report was essentially presented (on the news) as fact - I later met several property-bull acquaintances who saw it as some sort of proof that there was 15 years left in the property boom
Look, if the government took out centre page spreads in all the national papers, and broadcast half hour long public information programmes at prime time warning of irrational exuberance; it would make not one iota of difference, to the run away train of a property market. The Pope could turn up at Dublin airport beseeching and begging the people of Ireland to get a grip and it would have no effect.
Daniel O’ Donnell and Dana could do a sleep in for rationality and nothing would happen. Markets don’t react to risk they react to fear. The bubble will burst before people begin to see sense. I’ve noticed that the media have become slightly more bearish of late, possibly thinking that it was time to call a stop to the general silliness, but it’s not that simple.
Prices will rise this year by 20% plus maybe more in the last great manic rush.
The banks want to sheer the last few sheep before rising rates and unsustainable debt growth delivers the inevitable slap down.
Daniel O’ Donnell and Dana could do a sleep in for rationality and nothing would happen. Markets don’t react to risk they react to fear. The bubble will burst before people begin to see sense. I’ve noticed that the media have become slightly more bearish of late, possibly thinking that it was time to call a stop to the general silliness, but it’s not that simple.
Prices will rise this year by 20% plus maybe more in the last great manic rush.
The banks want to sheer the last few sheep before rising rates and unsustainable debt growth delivers the inevitable slap down.
soma said:
I didn't see the 6 o'clock news last night but on Morning Ireland he essentially didn't give it much endorsement, although phrased as diplomatically as possible. I imagine there are different editorial policies on the Six-One and Morning Ireland which might have affected the reportage.
soma said:The report was essentially presented (on the news) as fact - I later met several property-bull acquaintances who saw it as some sort of proof that there was 15 years left in the property boom
It's amazing what people will believe when you tell them what they want to hear. At lunch in my office today the report was mentioned in passing, in a kind of "yippee, 15 more years of the Celtic Tiger" without anybody questioning the validity of the claims made or the lack of discussion on factors which could derail such an assessment. I was going to jump in with my 2 cents, but decided not to bother as the conversation quickly moved on to more mundane topics.
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Chamar
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walk2dewater said:
I agree. It just shows what the so-called experts know. Its like a bunch of chimps sat around the table and decided to occupy themselves with this for a while.
walk2dewater said:
I don't think anybody with a reasonable bit of knowledge and some bit of a questioning mind will take the NCB report at face value, however, many people will. More fools them though.
Chamar said:
Which worries me even more. If this is what the so-called experts come up with how is our everyday Joe rationalising things. The answer can only be that there is no rationalising going on. Some people are in for a nasty shock if things go sour.
NCB don't actually say 20% this year, but I'm with Duplex on this one, I do think the general feelgood factor of the SSIA's and the fear that there'll never ever be another opportunity to buy a 3 bed semi (as propounded by virtually all vested property interests over the past 6 months) may well cause appreciation to be at hitherto unheard of levels. I feel however by early next year, a bit of reality may come back to the market, with the SSIA bonus almost gone, interest rates of at least 33% higher, people may start to take stock. I think that this will the last push over the precipice, it's like some of the very worst dotcom flotations in early 2000, manic stuff at the time.
ivuernis said:
I’ve seen with my own eyes yoy rises of over 20% in a ‘test bed’ 400 unit estate twenty miles from Dublin; I’ve watched this place for two years. Prices in Dublin rose by 1.5% last month, possibly more (PTSB figures). This is the last great run up, the final manic stage, study your bubbles folks. Heuristic reasoning and cognitive dissonance be dammed. Liberty Schemes all round, paddy is making his bid for the first page in the chapter entitled ‘Financial Manias’ in the economic text books.
Take photographs, keep a diary, cut out press clippings, buy a scrapbook; this is one you’ll want to tell the grandkids about when they ask you, ‘What did you do Grandad/Granny when the big crash happened’
Duplex said:
It's going to be a crying shame when all this goes nova, not just for us but the next generation too. Unparalleled prosperity in this country for the last 10 years and nothing of real value to show for it. They'll be studying us in Psychology 101 as well as Economics 101 for years to come!
The good news is that property prices in Japan (well Tokyo) have risen (after falling for fifteen years).
Well when I think about it this might not be good news, the BOJ might think again on 0% interest rates, and crush the carry trade.
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-23T080127Z_01_TKV002535_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-LAND.XML&pageNumber=1&summit=
Well when I think about it this might not be good news, the BOJ might think again on 0% interest rates, and crush the carry trade.
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=economicNews&storyID=uri:2006-03-23T080127Z_01_TKV002535_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-LAND.XML&pageNumber=1&summit=
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walk2dewater
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There will be carnage, this wont be a mild little recession and then back on to 5% GDP growth and 10% property price growth. A generation will come of age over the course of this next recession and they will be defined by it.ivuernis said:
There will be fingers pointing everywhere. I would imagine Sinn Fein getting significant seats in the Dail and FF been reduced to minor status, a 180 in migration flows, our infrastructure build-out will be scaled back enormously due to less pressure of roads, rail and airports and less tax money to fund it. The Aer Lingus IPO will be seen as the worst possible timing. There will be fields with rows and rows of unsold cars sitting in them (happened in UK in 1990s). Debt will be a shameful thing to admit to, rather than the badge of honour it appears to be today.
But within crisis there’s opportunity. For the investment savvy with the know-how and the right brokerage accounts there will be a massive opportunity to short the likes of AIB and BoI, but you’re timing will have to be spot on. People with no debt and lots of cash will have opportunities to make investment decisions of a lifetime.
You should go back to the start of this thread the progression to the current state of ultra-bearishness is interesting to watch.
Regardless I'm happy my job is going to be relatively unscathed. The company I work for does pretty much no business in Ireland.
Regardless I'm happy my job is going to be relatively unscathed. The company I work for does pretty much no business in Ireland.
Howitzer said:
Yeah, too soon to guess what happens here or in the States.
Have a look at Toll Brothers the biggest US builder, just for information.
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=toll&btnG=Search
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