figure of 25,000 demand for housing this year

[ivuernis]

share the wind and the rain with us!

I have many gripes with Ireland but the weather would not be one of them. I walk or cycle to work and there are very fews days where it's too windy or wet to do either. Granted it's not the Costa del Sol but when it's good it's great (e.g. this week) and we don't get either extreme they do in many parts of mainland europe. I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.

 

[ivuernis]

You just don't understand, according to Goggins, there's no point in tying up valuable assets in a non-productive way - it's actually a vote of confdence in the property market according to him, cos now they loan more - or some other bull***t to that effect.

Do as they do rather than as they say.

 

[whizzbang]

Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know. But you're right Germany is certainly handier for them, it's just that with 11% unmployment finding a job could be a little tougher.

not if they are willing to work for less than the Germans are, which is quite likely! Live in Poland, pop across the boader for work, excellent money making opportunity! (I'm sure this will effect prices near the boarder on both side but it will work out for some)

 

[whizzbang]

I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.

you are right, I was just using a stereotype to suggest that Ireland isn't the golden land a lot of people think it is!

I don't think immigrents think Ireland is the best place in Europe, it is just that we are one of the 3 or 4 countries letting them in. If more countries were to let them in then we would see less here as the move to other more convient countries.

 

[daveirl]

Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know.

Most of the Poles I know hate our weather, they don't mind the cold Winters back home because they know they get a good summer.

 

[Afuera]

I just think the idea of Irish weather being bad is much exaggerated.

People abroad expect cold weather in winter and hot weather in summer. Our weather system is so changeable and unpredictable, it just baffles them.

The fact that you can have snow, wind, rain and sun all in the same day is a little hard to accept for the uninitiated.

 

[Canonball]

Thats long factored in . When the building boom stops about 80000 houses will empty overnight as the Poles go home....whoops thats a whole years oversupply on the market in the twinkle of an eye.

Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????

We don't really know what way the flow of Eastern Europeans will turn in the future - but what we do know (see CSO birth figures attached) is that there is a natural pent-up demand for accomodation for the next 5 years or so. The baby-boomers of '78-'82 ('83 seems to be a turning point) are still coming on-stream in great numbers.

http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Dialog/Saveshow.asp

 

[sonar]

I don't think immigrents think Ireland is the best place in Europe.

Hardly ! A bestselling book in Latvia is "The Mushroom Covenant". It supposedly paints a very grim picture of greed and immigrant exploitation in Ireland. The author has predicted that in years to come it will be the Irish flooding to Latvia for jobs !

I also read recently that many eastern europeans recognize that specialty skills are not worth much here. This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.

Still though, they can make more money here than at home even if it is a temporary arrangement.

 

[Guest107]

This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.

I knew an Irish Doctor doing that in London in 1990, have we forgotten ...like .....EVERYTHING ????

 

[bearishbull]

Whats to say the irish wont become like other rich countries where they have less and less children as they get richer eg:germany/japan???

 

[Glenbhoy]

I also read recently that many eastern europeans recognize that specialty skills are not worth much here. This ties in with a recent report of a physicist working on a building site carrying cement bags.

It's not that skills are'nt worth much here, you just have to make those skills applicable to the market you're in, by for example having english at a comparable level to the locals (not that difficult in many cases).
As for the Irish flocking to work in Latvia, i predict it won't happen in my lifetime!

 

[sonar]

As for the Irish flocking to work in Latvia, i predict it won't happen in my lifetime!

Might be right. If some of the big US multinationals here pack up and move to eastern europe I don't think the locals there would take too kindly to the Irish trying to follow the jobs. Especially if the locals have read the mushroom chronicles

 

[SidTheDweeb]

It could be a long while before the Poles (etc.) head home, as as soon as the property construction levels dip, the government will step in and increase infrastructure expenditure. I still can't see immigrants buying in Ireland anytime soon, but that doesn't really matter as there will always be people prepared to buy-to-let, as long as they have confidence that the immigrants will stay put.

Will they?

And does anyone have any reliable estimate as to the amount of 'dwellings completed' that are expected over say the next 10 years. And also any recent immigration data?

[broken link removed] is housings completed last few years
[broken link removed] - probably help calculation of immigration numbers, particular construction industry stats

 

[thewatcher]

It could be a long while before the Poles (etc.) head home, as as soon as the property construction levels dip, the government will step in and increase infrastructure expenditure.

Road building uses a fraction of the workers,that would be released if the housing boom stopped,it's all done with heavy machinery.

 

[brian1]

Just a few points here:

- Not all foreigners are employed in construction. I don't mean this to be insulting or racist, but when we stop building, we will still need foreigners to, mind our children, clean our offices, serve us our food and all the other crappy jobs that Irish people don't want to do any more.

An AIB report states:

Employment in the construction sector in Ireland accounts for a total of 252,100 jobs- this from a total of 1,929,800 employed persons in Ireland. AIB's report, meanwhile, indicates that only 22,600 non-nationals are employed in construction. Conversely, 27,800 non-nationals are employed in manufacturing, 23,100 in the hospitality industry and 21,500 in financial and business services.

- A friend of mine who works in the mortgage industry has noticed an increase (not big, but certainly noticeable) in immigrants looking to but homes here. He said most of them are the first generation immigrants, being here 3 - 5 years and many of them are staying here as they are shacked up with an Irish partner.

So the 25,000 guestimate above could turn out larger, as the 50,000 Irish people are actually shacking up with the sexy Polish girl/guy from down the street , instead of another Irish person.

- I'm roughly in the age group of that 50,000, one thing that is very noticeable is that very few of my friends are married or getting married. Many are buying their own place as a single person, even a quiet a few of my friends in semi-serious relationships, both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000.

Non of this is really fact (except the first point), but just some observations from my own experiences.

 

[whizzbang]

both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000.

would that not mean demand is lower as the occupants of two dwellings now take up one dwelling? hence an extra house on the market? or am I missing something?

 

[SidTheDweeb]

- I'm roughly in the age group of that 50,000, one thing that is very noticeable is that very few of my friends are married or getting married. Many are buying their own place as a single person, even a quiet a few of my friends in semi-serious relationships, both partners have their own place. Many in my age group seem to be of the opinion that each should have their own place for now. If the relationship gets very serious and they marry down the line, then they will trade up and buy a bigger place together. This could mean demand is higher then 25,000..

That's somewhat different to my experience. Anyone I know who's bought recently has bought with at least 1 other person, be it family, friend or partner. I haven't heard of 1 person who has bought solo. (oh actually I have, 1 person, a doctor)

 

[Purple]

That's somewhat different to my experience. Anyone I know who's bought recently has bought with at least 1 other person, be it family, friend or partner. I haven't heard of 1 person who has bought solo. (oh actually I have, 1 person, a doctor)

Looks like brian1 has richer friends than you

 

[whizzbang]

Looks like brian1 has richer friends than you

thats it! houses are not over priced, I'm just underpopular!

ahh now I understand.

 

[brian1]

would that not mean demand is lower as the occupants of two dwellings now take up one dwelling? hence an extra house on the market? or am I missing something?

Eventually maybe, but in reality most seem to never get that serious in the relationships. Relationships seem to be far more fluid today then in the past, remember we have divorce now and I've also seen very long term partnerships break up.

That is why I'm saying that a figure of 25,000 is far to simplisitic, it could be higher or it could be lower.