figure of 25,000 demand for housing this year

M

miju

Guest
just read an article in the indo today, i'm curious as to where the builders / journos get these figures from??

how do they know that x amount of houses will be built but it's not meeting the expected demand of 25,000 houses per year????

just seems like a massive falacy to me which i'm hoping someone here can clear up?
 
back of envelope job

1. Get your completion stats here

http://www.environ.ie/DOEI/DOEIPub.nsf/wvNavView/RegularPublications?OpenDocument&Lang=en#I2

2. If 50000 do their leaving cert this year and then leave home and shack up on in pairs , irrespective of peccadillos , thats 25000 homes needed to house these new households.

The rate of "Houshold Formation" is below that of "House Completions" Immigrants also form Households of course.

makes one wonder who will be in the other 65000 units they will build on the side though, some will be holiday homes
 
2. If 50000 do their leaving cert this year and then leave home and shack up on in pairs , irrespective of peccadillos , thats 25000 homes needed to house these new households.
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But peopel who own existing homes die and their house is sold off by the relations. So not every new household needs a new house.
 
so im correct in thinking that these demand figures that are farmed about are a load of tosh with no real concrete source then???

find that pretty incredible since it's been the whole mantra of the property bubble "demand outstripping supply etc, etc"
 
miju said:
how do they know that x amount of houses will be built but it's not meeting the expected demand of 25,000 houses per year????

just seems like a massive falacy to me which i'm hoping someone here can clear up?
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In relation to projected figures as far as I know the latest media coverage is on foot of a report from the Irish Home Builders Association who are hardly an independent/objective party in such matters. For example...

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Capital's housing supply falling way below demand, builders say - Irish Independent[/FONT]
 
that's excalty what i though when reading the indo today hence me asking the question becuase i've never really stopped to ask myself the source of these figures until today when i saw where they came from and kinda said to myself "hang on a sec...slightly biased group saying there's a shortage????"
 
Most of Eastern Europe is going to have a dropping population. Property in Croatia etc doesn't loom that good in the long run. Maybe Irelands east coast is a good bet?!
 
wow those population statistics are interesting ,gonna be a lot of cheap property in europe in years to come.research show the two main reasons for property price increases in a given reigon is positive income and population growth if either or both are negative or low price growth prospects are low.
 
My hot tip for for a decade from now is the second home market in Europe for wealthy Indian buyers.
 
The NIB Vision 2020 report had a pretty good break-down of the population forecasts and thus housing forecast requirements up to 2020. They laid out their assumptions on popluation growth, immigration, household size, etc and went from there. So if you didn't like their assumptiuons you could re-work the figures using your own.

Then again, forecasting the future is not an exact science, sorry, not an exact art!
 
madisona said:
That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.
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Thats long factored in . When the building boom stops about 80000 houses will empty overnight as the Poles go home....whoops thats a whole years oversupply on the market in the twinkle of an eye.

Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????
 
Logically the demographic hollowing of eastern europe should result in prices falling as they all come to Ireland etc. Why are we Irish paying a premium in Easten Europe so ????
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Hedging?
 
For when we follow them to Krakow, Budapest and Prague looking for work is it ??
 
Duplex said:
My hot tip for for a decade from now is the second home market in Europe for wealthy Indian buyers.
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common, we know the Chinese will have them all bought up!
 
madisona said:
That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.
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Isn't that because only a few European nations are letting them in? Ireland, UK and the Neatherlands or something like that? I think Most Poles would rather work in Germany so they can drive home for the weekend rather than share the wind and the rain with us!
 
I think Most Poles would rather work in Germany so they can drive home for the weekend rather than share the wind and the rain with us!
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Yeah cause Poland is renowned for it's great weather, gets a little cold there in winter you know. But you're right Germany is certainly handier for them, it's just that with 11% unmployment finding a job could be a little tougher.
 
madisona said:
That's because so many of them will be coming to Ireland to form households. Maybe we should be building more houses to meet this demand.
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yeah we really need to build more houses in Ireland. Current output is dismal...

Did anyone notice the latest from BoI? They have just announced sale and leaseback of 30+ branches... now why would anyone in their right mind sell their property and go renting?
 
They have just announced sale and leaseback of 30+ branches... now why would anyone in their right mind sell their property and go renting?
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You just don't understand, according to Goggins, there's no point in tying up valuable assets in a non-productive way - it's actually a vote of confdence in the property market according to him, cos now they loan more - or some other bull***t to that effect.
 
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