european wide housing shortages

[RETIRED2017]

Fair point! But the money doesn't seem to be flowing there. Seems to be less risky to just buy existing asset, and watch it rise in value due to the inflationary effects on assets of QE.

You have hit the nail on the head ,
Just to give you an example, Have a look at the old Allsops auctions of property sold in your area,

I bought around 2012 lots of the property sold around that time is still idle where I live ,I travel around Ireland quite a lot same thing happening anywhere I go, a few weeks ago I was staying in a large irish town,

I had time on my hands I just checked to see was the same thing happened there as well,
no one living in most of the property's sold around that time ,

 

[AlbacoreA]

I agree population growth is a factor, but it doesn't explain why there is a housing crisis, at the same time, across many countries.

There isn't one cause. There's a perfect storm of causes.

 

[AlbacoreA]

Fair point! But the money doesn't seem to be flowing there. Seems to be less risky to just buy existing asset, and watch it rise in value due to the inflationary effects on assets of QE.

Its too expensive to build unless there is a decent return.

 

[joe sod]

I think a big issue is Labour, a lot less young guys willing to slave on building sites like in the past (in fairness working conditions and safety have improved a lot). During the boom we got a once off injection of capable willing labour from eastern Europe, that has really dried up now. The hardened wizened builder is now a thing of the past, the guys that built Britain etc are gone and not coming back.

Labour was not as heavily taxed during the boom, no usc etc, so guys were willing to work hard and earn a good wage. Today young guys are not willing to do hard physical jobs and then see the government cream off a lot of it in high taxation. Maybe there is a case for a favourable taxation system for physically demanding jobs, other countries do this.

 

[AlbacoreA]

This suggests construction cost are around 43% of the total costs.

 

[dub_nerd]

I think a big issue is Labour, a lot less young guys willing to slave on building sites like in the past...

It's an industry crying out for modernisation. There are plenty of new materials, better insulation etc., but the actual approach to erecting a house doesn't seem to have changed much for a hundred years. Why isn't there more pre-fabrication or, better still, robotic construction. There have been numerous demos of two new construction methods: 3D-printing of houses and automated block laying. They both potentially carry benefits of reduced cost and construction time, while increasing design flexibility and moving away from the rows of identikit houses that make our urban landscapes so drab.

 

[looptheloop]

As a former construction worker , I can agree with these points.
I was 30 yrs on sites around Ireland and UK. The last real pool of construction workers left school in the eighties. During the boom the shortfall was met by Eastern Europeans. Like myself, most of these guys are in their 50's and older and the lack of Health and Safety standards in the industry has left a lot of them crippled. myself included.
Look around you at the young people and youth of today.The intelligent ones head for college.The rest just aren't up to the demands of construction work. You can't really carry 9 inch blocks up a ladder and look at your smartphone all day!!!

 

[AlbacoreA]

... potentially carry benefits of reduced cost and construction time...

Potentially isn't enough.

 

[joe sod]

@dubnerd, I think construction will be the last industry to have robotics to any meaningful extent. It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots. Robots like clean pristine environments and thats where you generally see them, not the dirt wet and grime of a building site. No matter how good you are if you break ground in this Irish weather you are going to get muck and grime. They also need predictable work practices which you don't get in construction.
In fairness there has been a lot of innovation in construction but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.

 

[AlbacoreA]

If you look at how farming has modernised, building is the exact opposite. It has resisted change from all levels.
Its also full of chancers and there is very little regulation and enforcement.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...oblems-with-celtic-tiger-apartments-1.3812807

 

[AlbacoreA]

@...but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.

Difficult people also.

 

[Leo]

It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots.

I think the core issue is much of the fabrication should be carried out off-site in factories.

 

[NoRegretsCoyote]

I think the core issue is much of the fabrication should be carried out off-site in factories.

Unfortunately, that's decades ahead of the typical Irish developer.

 

[Folsom]

There isn't one cause. There's a perfect storm of causes.

I would agree with that. But I would also put front and central to that the economic policies adopted that effectively outsourced the provision of housing to the private sector as a commodity to buy and sell for profit, to the detriment of the provision of housing as a social need.

 

[dub_nerd]

Potentially isn't enough.

Correct. The advantages need to be demonstrated in the real world or it will not fly.

@dubnerd, I think construction will be the last industry to have robotics to any meaningful extent. It's simply too hard to replicate what happens on a building site to robots. Robots like clean pristine environments and thats where you generally see them, not the dirt wet and grime of a building site. No matter how good you are if you break ground in this Irish weather you are going to get muck and grime. They also need predictable work practices which you don't get in construction.
In fairness there has been a lot of innovation in construction but you are still dealing with difficult materials , in a word construction is just difficult.

I don't agree with that. We're not talking about the robots in the clean room of a semiconductor FAB. Robots also work in grimy industrial environments and have taken over operations in the world's biggest dockyards. They go down mines, build tunnels, operate underwater etc. etc. Building construction isn't intrinsically difficult, it's just insufficiently modularised. You could have said the same for car, aeroplane, or electronics construction back in the 1960s. Then we invented integrated circuits, modular wiring harnesses, wave soldering machines, laser spot welding etc. etc. To a certain extent, the processes are changed to fit the robots.

Unfortunately, that's decades ahead of the typical Irish developer.

You're right, I think it's a question of mindset. Eventually someone will come along with the new technology and eat everybody else's lunch.

 

[AlbacoreA]

I think if you look at all the economic policies there's a consistent pattern to increasing value for investors, especially external larger investors.
Its real boom and bust tactics, always seeking short term gain at the expense of long term sustainability. Making the fast buck.

 

[AlbacoreA]

I think also the problem its an industry with a largely poorly skilled labour force. There is wide range of ability within trades. A huge resistance to change.

Automation requires a level of skillets, standards and precision and professionalism. that the building industry isn't able to deliver except on premium projects.

Trying to get simple things done right by tradesmen is torture.

 

[joe sod]

I think also the problem its an industry with a largely poorly skilled labour force. There is wide range of ability within trades. A huge resistance to change.

Automation requires a level of skillets, standards and precision and professionalism. that the building industry isn't able to deliver except on premium projects.

Trying to get simple things done right by tradesmen is torture.

Yes, but again it's not just an Irish issue it's world-wide, maybe in places like Dubai there might be better ways of building the big skyscrapers, but then they also use slave labour from poor Asian countries.
I see construction workers doing very tricky work in old cities in Spain and Portugal , where you can't get heavy construction equipment in, it's all Labour intensive work and probably not work that would be done in Ireland due to lack of willing labour. So "backwardness" in construction is not just an Irish issue

 

[AlbacoreA]

You've been told a few times now that the same problem shortage housing, can be caused by different reasons in different countries.

Its the same with building. Its not done the same in every country. Not all building is low skilled even here, some of it is highly skilled.
The fact remains that our housing is poorly build, standards and enforcement ignored. Its an issue here. Who cares about anywhere else.

Lack of willing labour simply means no ones willing to pay enough to attract people to do. Pay enough and you'll get people.
People will travel the world for the right money. Especially in construction. So if there's a shortage its a money issue.
Money doesn't simply mean wages.

Saying "its not just an Irish issue" is meaningless.