https://www.rte.ie
Rees-Mogg predicting a hard Brexit now. I would have to agree, cant see anything else but a hard Brexit at this stage.
So what happens next March?
If I understand things correctly, importers and exporters with the UK will be subject to WTO rules (whatever they may entail?). I presume it means that the cost of goods and services will rise between EU and UK.
So if I was an importer of UK goods, wouldn't it be in my interest to bring forward orders, where practicable, under single market/customs union rules, as the cost will be cheaper?
If so, I would imagine that the initial impact of Brexit will boost UK and EU economies pre-leaving day. The negative impact of Brexit wont occur until sometime after this as price rises impact and traders look for alternative markets in which to source produce.
Id imagine Ireland, with access to the single market etc will be better placed to do this than the UK as it searches high and low for new trade partners across the globe.
Notwithstanding the fact that the EU will be competing with the UK in those very same markets too - Japan for instance.
Japan may cut a deal with the UK for Whale-spearing/fox hunting holidays which the EU wont do, but when it comes to car manufacturing, electronic goods, its hard to see how the UK can negotiate better terms with Japan than what the EU can negotiate?
The UK of course wants to 'take back its waters', denying Irish fishing vessels their livilihood. Thats ok, but if the EU takes back its skies, well thats a threat!
Of course beyond the political bluster, reality always dawns. 40% of fishermen on UK fishing vessels are immigrants. So presumably after 'taking control of borders', a new visa scheme to allow immigrant fishermen will emerge?
The UK catches and sells more fish than it actually eats. Fresh fish being a perishable good will need somewhere to go, quickly - Canada perhaps? Although I suspect that they have their own fish already? And anyway there isn't enough of them to compensate the EU market. So unless Johnny English is going to have fish for breakfast, lunch, dinner and a late night snack, there is going to be a lot of angry fishermen about.
Of course, they could come to some agreement with EU countries, very, very, similar, in fact exactly like the deal they have now already?
In fairness to BJ and his high flying mates in the city of London, financial services is a huge part of the UK economy, London being one of the financial capitals of the world. Many EU financial institutions have large bases there so best the EU dont mess with UK fish or the UK will mess with EU financial institutions - right?
On the other hand, what is it that they say about capital these days? Its very mobile isnt it? How does Berlin, Rome, Madrid, Paris...even Dublin suit?
Fish on the other hand are fish, also mobile but on their own terms, not ours.