The irish academy of engineers have issued a report on the security of the irish electricity network upto 2030. In their opinion we will need to increase the gas generating capacity and build new power stations in order to maintain the reliability of the grid. They also warned about the wisdom of not looking for new gas supplies off the irish coast as we will be highly dependant on russian gas as the UK gas supplies will also be gone by 2030. here is an excerpt
Conclusions and Recommendations
In order to maintain normal reliability standards while replacing coal, oil and peat generation, Ireland will require significant gas fired generation capacity for the next two decades. The gas turbine generation capacity required in 2030 is likely to increase from today, but annual gas consumption will probably reduce as generating units will operate with lower load factors, but peak gas demand, for power generation will be significantly higher than today. Power system reliability is therefore critically dependent on secure primary energy supplies (Natural Gas) to the Island of Ireland.
Power system reliability becomes an Energy Security issue.
There is universal agreement that long term decarbonisation of the planet’s energy systems requires a major shift to electricity as an energy vector. Ireland has targeted nine hundred thousand Electric Vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030 as well as six hundred thousand domestic heat pumps. In this context, a failure of the power system would have a catastrophic effect on normal economic life.