Dublin Bay South Election - Voting.

the so-called posh vote will get split, whoever wins will be after the transfer vote for re-election, the so-called posh voter will get taxed to the hilt by the TDs they elect,
 
deanpark said:
Is Geoghan in trouble/ finished based on this? Looks like it.
Click to expand...
Not looking good but only 13 boxes are open out of 106... if rest of boxes are similar then it's a two horse race.

Edit - most of the boxes opened are from city centre part of the constituency eg Mansion House, Wood Quay, St Kevins.
Rathmines & Terenure not really opened yet. A couple of Pembroke wards tallied.
 
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No, if you click on the link on post 22 you will see he is on more than 24% with 44 boxes opened out of 106,
FF on 4.1% god be with the time FF would be expecting 41%
 
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kinnjohn said:
No, if you click on the link on post 22 you will see he is on more than 24% with 44 boxes opened out of 106,
FF on 4.1% god be with the time FF would be expecting 41%
Click to expand...
Wow, that's dramatic turnaround.
Boylan is now 3rd on 23% with Geoghegan on 25% and Bacik on 26%.
 
55% of the boxes are open

Bacik: 25.7%
Geoghegan: 25.6%
Boylan: 22.3%

But whatever way you look at it, SF will do much better than the Opinion Poll suggested.

Brendan
 
The RTE website is funny

"Solidarity People Before Profit candidate Brigid Purcell is at the count centre. She says Dublin South West is a tough constituency for a Marxist to do well in but the campaign has been positive. "We're under no illusion that I'm going to win, but it's been a great experience running," she says."
 
12 minutes ago
Staff at the count centre are taking a break now with the result of the first count expected later this afternoon, maybe around 2pm or 3pm.
 
62% counted

1625826688854.png

That is a good margin for Labour over Sinn Féin as the boxes to come will favour Labour over Sinn Féin.

Brendan
 
odyssey06 said:
Wow, that's dramatic turnaround.
Boylan is now 3rd on 23% with Geoghegan on 25% and Bacik on 26%.
Click to expand...
She is away lower,
greens almost double FF % did you ever think you would see the day,
I find clicking on the printable version is best it shows the % highest to lowest,
 
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Good point - with 73% tallied:

1625827512783.png

Bacik could well top the poll.

The candidates need 12.5% to get €8,000 towards their election expenses. Only three of them will qualify.

I read some commentator saying that FF transfers would be important. At 4.4%, I don't think that they will matter that much. :)

Brendan
 
kinnjohn said:
She is away lower,
greens almost double FF % did you ever think you would see the day,
I find clicking on the printable version is best it shows the % highest to lowest,
Click to expand...
I think FF will be eliminated before Mannix Flynn, and that seems to be the same amount of votes he gets in every election including locals...
 
Bacik's lead increases with every box opened.

83%

1625828132813.png

FG will need to do a big review of this. Why did they not select Kate O'Connell?

Based on this, they should run only one candidate in the next General Election and it should be Kate O'Connell.

Brendan
 
Even RTE is critical of the hatchet job on Geoghegan by the Irish Times

www.rte.ie

5 things to watch in the Dublin Bay South by-election

After weeks of campaigning, today we will find out who Ireland's newest TD will be. Here are five things we will look out for as the Dublin Bay South by-election count takes place.
www.rte.ie www.rte.ie

No such thing as bad press



Conversely, a higher turnout in the more affluent areas will be good news for Fine Gael. Their worry all along was that, in an election of low consequence and particularly with Sinn Féin not posing as big a challenge as initially appeared to be the case, their supporters may not be all too motivated to make their way to the local polling station.

Until, that is, an opinion piece appeared in the Irish Times about their candidate, James Geoghegan, with the headline: "You couldn't make him up". Not since Kate O'Connell confessed to Claire Byrne on RTÉ Radio that someone had threatened to present her with a sod of turf at a Fine Gael meeting, has there been such a talking point around the campaign.

The piece made reference to Geoghegan's "intense privilege" and "clichéd" South-side accent – much to the chagrin of the party grassroots. The reaction, along with a counterbalancing piece from Minister Simon Harris the following day, and former taoiseach John Bruton rowing in on the letters pages of the Irish Times might have provided the motivation the party were looking for.

In fact, it's Labour who felt it had most to lose from the newspaper article, with some strategists bemoaning that they would have been happier heading into today had it never appeared.
 
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