Discussion of Roadmap for reopening Irish society and business

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Is it to be expected with the disconnect between our senior politicians and the public?I've been very disappointed with Leo's leadership and visibility since the lockdown started. Leo decided to quote Winston Churchill in his initial tv address yet he has failed to appear on tv regularly to lead, encourage and bring the nation with him throughout this 7 week period.
The UK senior politicians and health ministers are on the BBC daily and even Boris Johnson was back straight away after being in intensive care.! Disingenuous to quote Churchill and then fail to lead and galvanise the nation, instead allowing hearsay and social media to speculate allowing some of the population to decide on their own interpretations of the lockdown stipulations.
 
Wahaay said:
Not a view shared by the electorates in the recent UK and Irish general elections ...
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I don't remember Covid19 being an issue in the recent election here.
I do remember the Child Killers getting 24% of the vote but the two main centre-left parties, FF & FG, getting nearly twice that.
Was there a more recent election that I missed?
 
Purple said:
I don't remember Covid19 being an issue in the recent election here.
I do remember the Child Killers getting 24% of the vote but the two main centre-left parties, FF & FG, getting nearly twice that.
Was there a more recent election that I missed?
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This is probably not the thread to indulge in this as Brendan will no doubt say when he deletes these posts but Varadkar and Johnson are both enoying good approval ratings over their handling of Covid-19.
It's a familiar phenomenon in times of national crisis.
Varadkar's is from a much lower base than that of Johnson whose popularity appears undimmed from the December election. All pollsters report that the Conservative Party enjoys historic – even record-breaking – levels of support.
I always think it wise to remember that social media is rarely a true reflection of the mood of a nation.
But bringing this thread back to the roadmap I get the impresssion - and it is no more than that - that both Ireland and the UK broadly support it.Boris has yet to unveil the UK's but I expect it to be similar to Ireland's with scientific and medical experts' advice outweighing that of the economists concerned about the effects of a prolonged lockdown.I'm not sure there is quite the urgent clamour to get back to normal life that is sometimes portrayed in the media.
Without a vaccine there is still a great deal of fear and apprehension.
 
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Wahaay said:
This is probably not the thread to indulge in this as Brendan will no doubt say when he deletes these posts but Varadkar and Johnson are both enoying good approval ratings over their handling of Covid-19.
It's a familiar phenomenon in times of national crisis.
Varadkar's is from a much lower base than that of Johnson whose popularity appears undimmed from the December election. All pollsters report that the Conservative Party enjoys historic – even record-breaking – levels of support.
I always think it wise to remember that social media is rarely a true reflection of the mood of a nation.
But bringing this thread back to the roadmap I get the impresssion - and it is no more than that - that both Ireland and the UK broadly support it.Boris has yet to unveil the UK's but I expect it to be similar to Ireland's with scientific and medical experts' advice outweighing that of the economists concerned about the effects of a prolonged lockdown.I'm not sure there is quite the urgent clamour to get back to normal life that is sometimes portrayed in the media.
Without a vaccine there is still a great deal of fear and apprehension.
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Without a vaccine, without 5 or 6 billion vaccines and the ability to administer them, then Covid19 is, and will remain, part of our lives for the foreseeable future.
Given all that we have to find a way to live with it while engaging in normal human activity. The lockdown should be treated as a temporary measure which gives us space and time to create medical and laboratory capacity to treat and test for the virus Once that capacity is there then restrictions should be unwound at a rate which keeps the symptomatic infection rate at or below the capacity of the health service to treat it.

The economy is made up of people. Financial security, personal dignity and mental health are all intertwined in what it is to work for a living. It is also the source of funding for the health service and so while your health is your wealth is it also very much the case that as a societal level your wealth is your health.

This is the new norm, our new reality. Solid data on who is actually dying from the disease would help. Given that most people who have it are not tested as they are asymptomatic and of the 20% who are symptomatic many are still not tested it is reasonable to say that the real mortality rate is probably well below 1%. Figures from Germany suggest it's below 0.4%. Let's say it is 0.5%. Of that 0.5% the vast majority are elderly and have underlying conditions. Therefore the mortality rate for someone in good health who is under 70 must be significantly lower than one in two thousand.

So, continue to cocoon high risk groups and let the rest of the world get back to normal in a controlled way.
From what I can see that seems to be the plan. We probably need to do it a bit faster but the heros in the HSE can't get their act together so we have to slow things down.
 
Purple said:
Without a vaccine, without 5 or 6 billion vaccines and the ability to administer them, then Covid19 is, and will remain, part of our lives for the foreseeable future.
Given all that we have to find a way to live with it while engaging in normal human activity. The lockdown should be treated as a temporary measure which gives us space and time to create medical and laboratory capacity to treat and test for the virus Once that capacity is there then restrictions should be unwound at a rate which keeps the symptomatic infection rate at or below the capacity of the health service to treat it.

The economy is made up of people. Financial security, personal dignity and mental health are all intertwined in what it is to work for a living. It is also the source of funding for the health service and so while your health is your wealth is it also very much the case that as a societal level your wealth is your health.

This is the new norm, our new reality. Solid data on who is actually dying from the disease would help. Given that most people who have it are not tested as they are asymptomatic and of the 20% who are symptomatic many are still not tested it is reasonable to say that the real mortality rate is probably well below 1%. Figures from Germany suggest it's below 0.4%. Let's say it is 0.5%. Of that 0.5% the vast majority are elderly and have underlying conditions. Therefore the mortality rate for someone in good health who is under 70 must be significantly lower than one in two thousand.

So, continue to cocoon high risk groups and let the rest of the world get back to normal in a controlled way.
From what I can see that seems to be the plan. We probably need to do it a bit faster but the heros in the HSE can't get their act together so we have to slow things down.
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Indeed.
The trouble is governments are only learning about the true nature of Covid-19 at the same time as the rest of us so some mistakes will be made along the way.
It's amazing how many new internet epidemiologists and statisicians have all recently graduated from the University of Hindsight ...
 
Wahaay said:
The trouble is governments are only learning about the true nature of Covid-19 at the same time as the rest of us so some mistakes will be made along the way.
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Yep, which is one of the reasons I think they are doing a good job.
Wahaay said:
It's amazing how many new internet epidemiologists and statisicians have all recently graduated from the University of Hindsight ...
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Indeed.
 
Rosjohn said:
Ahhhh....if only those Scientists and Governments would listen to Karen from facebook.....
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The really scary bit is Karen from Facebook is probably a better bet than the President of the United States of America.
 
Not really about the Roadmap but no other suitable heading.
The putative program for government is ruling out increases in income tax and USC. I trust this is just name calling.

There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.

Not going to pubs. Not going to restaurants. Paying much less on fuel and motor repairs. Not buying new clothes. Not going to shows. Not going to sporting events. Not getting our hair cut. Not going on foreign holidays, indeed not going on domestic holidays, rebates of private health insurance, rebates of motor insurance and I am sure there are many other savings.

The government should flag that there will be a Covid tax along these lines as part of the Roadmap to prevent people blowing these enforced savings as soon as they get the chance.

There's much talk of solidarity. Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if the Covid tax could be self assessed?
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
Not really about the Roadmap but no other suitable heading.
The putative program for government is ruling out increases in income tax and USC. I trust this is just name calling.

There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.

Not going to pubs. Not going to restaurants. Paying much less on fuel and motor repairs. Not buying new clothes. Not going to shows. Not going to sporting events. Not getting our hair cut. Not going on foreign holidays, indeed not going on domestic holidays, rebates of private health insurance, rebates of motor insurance and I am sure there are many other savings.

The government should flag that there will be a Covid tax along these lines as part of the Roadmap to prevent people blowing these enforced savings as soon as they get the chance.

There's much talk of solidarity. Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if the Covid tax could be self assessed?
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Of course they have already paid tax on the money they have been able to save.
But additional taxes there will be as well as cuts to services.There is no other way of paying for the enormous amount of money being borrowed to pay for half of the workforce being on benefits.
It will be across the board too and not just on those who have savings.
 
Duke of Marmalade said:
There is a very good case for a Covid tax not just because of unprecedented collateral public expenditure but because those that have escaped the economic fall out will have had enforced windfall increases in their savings rate.
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what will be the long term consequences ? the fact that we are borrowing so much money now means we wont be able to do it in the future to fund the pension deficits coming down the line. If they increase taxes to pay for Covid, will it not just make the welfare system even more attractive especially as many more people have now got a taste for it.
 
Purple said:
We need to encurage spending after the restrictions are lifted. Increasing taxes is not the way to do that.
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Lovely sentiment and I agree entirely. But, if Paddy can get a pair of trainers €5.00 cheaper online than in Douglas Shopping Centre he'll opt to save his fiver. I'm remembering the days of Jetmagic (an excellent low fare airline) competing with Ryanair at Cork Airport on the London and Alicante routes. If Ryanair were a fiver cheaper the public opted for it instead of Jetmagic which had an outstanding customer service and far better comfort. Alas! Jetmagic has folded and Ryanair can now charge what they like.

I'm sorry to say that Irish Nationalism will only continue with the Celtic jersey occupants of the bar stool screaming insults at a television screen against Rangers after Covid-19.
 
Money costs governments less than nothing to borrow. We need to borrow to restart the private sector small business economy. It employs the most people and is a critical part of the economy. Tax increases just go to pay rises for State employees and while many of them do very important jobs none of them directly create wealth.
If there was a tax on State employees who have retained their full wage and pensioners with a pension above a certain value which was used to subsidise reductions in rates and other forms of tax on small businesses then I'd be all for it but the people who really run the country always feather their own nest first.
 
Purple said:
Money costs governments less than nothing to borrow. We need to borrow to restart the private sector small business economy. It employs the most people and is a critical part of the economy. Tax increases just go to pay rises for State employees and while many of them do very important jobs none of them directly create wealth.
If there was a tax on State employees who have retained their full wage and pensioners with a pension above a certain value which was used to subsidise reductions in rates and other forms of tax on small businesses then I'd be all for it but the people who really run the country always feather their own nest first.
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Good Man Purple! You started well and then descended into your usual Public/Civil Service bashing. These are times when we all need to pull together. Remember unlike you, Covid-19 doesn't differentiate whether you are private or public sector. And a loaf of bread costs the same for everybody too.
 
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