Hmm, my tax euros will not go towards subsidising the people that bought at peak madness (aka last spring).
I'll emigrate before I subsidise the "investors" (saps).
Cowan could, however, introduce universal shared ownership where the government buys 10% of each and every FTB house and guarantees to take the hit if the market drops by 12% meaning the owner only has to pay 2% of the loss while the government takes a bath on their entire amount . Guarantor of first resort stuff not a grant per se.
Ah leave the poor sheeple alone, no one told them prices could fall! like you'd think they had taken part in a pyramid scheme in cork the way youre talking like!Hmm, my tax euros will not go towards subsidising the people that bought at peak madness (aka last spring).
I'll emigrate before I subsidise the "investors" (saps).
Hmm, my tax euros will not go towards subsidising the people that bought at peak madness (aka last spring).
I'll emigrate before I subsidise the "investors" (saps).
Theres a difference when it comes to investments, buying homes and the like, you must know that the vast majority of people with no mortgage left or who dont have a mortgage or a small mortgage would be most annoyed if the government helped out the last 10 or 20% of buyers who suffered in a crash, people entered into this with their eyes wide open (or should have) and accepted that they may gain a load or lose a load but its their own responsibility.Have you..or anybody close to you, been born, educated, been ill, died, collected a pension, been on the dole, social welfare....the affordable housing scheme????? If the answer to any of the above is yes, then this 'saps' tax euros helped support you and I didn't emigrate because of it!!!!!!
Jaysis man, in 2000 very few if any people though property was overvalued wasnt much if any more than renting. The banks and mortgage brokers are both saying growth will slow to nothing next year then many of the speculators in the market will pull out as rates hit 5% and rents remain low/static,the market will be a buyers one and prices will fall over a prolonged period(years).I have emigrated... almost two years ago.. and my sentiment is that the market will continue to climb
I arrived in Ireland as a skilled immigrant in 2000 and quickly assumed the position of a property bear, very much encouraged by sceptic parents and family with regard to the property market. I have maintained that position unflinchingly ...until becoming a follower of this website.
The property market in 2000 seemed out of control and i waited confidently for the crash to occur. In late 2004 I emigrated, very much due the poor quality of life i could avail of in Dublin, and the unrelenting climb in its costs.
I have no regrets about leaving however the barrier to returning has climbed even higher.
I still believe that the price of property is overvalued in Ireland, however reading this web site has been a reflection of my own stubborness; i imagine a lot of bears on this website would have been happy to get a foot on the ladder in 2000 and probably see that as a time when things werent that expensive, well it did seem expensive then, but not now... Its all relative, and i envisage that in 4 years time the same debates will be raging. A recent article found through a link on this site has reinforced that possibility.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf
In Ireland, property that appears expensive today will unfortunately seem like a bargain in 5 years time, and irrespective of how much i would love to see it drop, and how often i log on here for links to articles that reinforce that hope, it appears it most likely wont happen anytime soon. Infact over the years of following the Irish property game... too closely... there have been regular glimmers of hope, which have faded into smiles on the faces of friends who had the discipline and determination to get on the ladder.
Again it is my hope that things do you pear shaped on a grand scale, I really mean that but i fear i may be waiting a while.
So my sentiment is hopelessly bearish, the obsession and capacity for property in Ireland will remain strong in the long term
Theres a difference when it comes to investments, buying homes and the like, you must know that the vast majority of people with no mortgage left or who dont have a mortgage or a small mortgage would be most annoyed if the government helped out the last 10 or 20% of buyers who suffered in a crash, people entered into this with their eyes wide open (or should have) and accepted that they may gain a load or lose a load but its their own responsibility.
I have emigrated... almost two years ago.. and my sentiment is that the market will continue to climb
I arrived in Ireland as a skilled immigrant in 2000 and quickly assumed the position of a property bear, very much encouraged by sceptic parents and family with regard to the property market. I have maintained that position unflinchingly ...until becoming a follower of this website.
The property market in 2000 seemed out of control and i waited confidently for the crash to occur. In late 2004 I emigrated, very much due the poor quality of life i could avail of in Dublin, and the unrelenting climb in its costs.
I have no regrets about leaving however the barrier to returning has climbed even higher.
I still believe that the price of property is overvalued in Ireland, however reading this web site has been a reflection of my own stubborness; i imagine a lot of bears on this website would have been happy to get a foot on the ladder in 2000 and probably see that as a time when things werent that expensive, well it did seem expensive then, but not now... Its all relative, and i envisage that in 4 years time the same debates will be raging. A recent article found through a link on this site has reinforced that possibility.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2005/847/ifdp847.pdf
In Ireland, property that appears expensive today will unfortunately seem like a bargain in 5 years time, and irrespective of how much i would love to see it drop, and how often i log on here for links to articles that reinforce that hope, it appears it most likely wont happen anytime soon. Infact over the years of following the Irish property game... too closely... there have been regular glimmers of hope, which have faded into smiles on the faces of friends who had the discipline and determination to get on the ladder.
Again it is my hope that things do you pear shaped on a grand scale, I really mean that but i fear i may be waiting a while.
So my sentiment is hopelessly bearish, the obsession and capacity for property in Ireland will remain strong in the long term
The difference between 2000 and 2006 is that now we have a bubble.
I agree with all you are saying but I think the most important difference is that now it appears that the lenders are going to turn off the taps.
IMO even with the acknowledgement that there is a bubble and the general change in sentiment this in itself will not stop the HPI and I believe that if the banks do continue to lend ever more amounts then the prices will continue to go up.
Whilst that may have been true a number of years ago the nature of the property market at the moment is heavily based on peoples sentiment. The bidding wars of the last 6 months were not a consequence of people desperately seeking 'shelter' but was based solely on speculating that the asset was going to continue to rise.
But there still are a lot of people who believe it is a one way ticket and for every bearish report they will quote a bullish one, these people will not be convinced until the market actually starts tanking, IMO the sentiment hasn't turned sufficiently bearish to kill the market, and that the next chapter in the book is the FTB's not getting the loans which will then lead to the more widespread change of sentiment which will tip the scales.
However if the lenders/goberment pull another trick from their sleeve which allows continued increases in loans (or some other way of making houses more 'affordable') then the market will continue to go up and the current bearish sentiment will be replaced by a new unbelievably bullish one where the feeling will be of utter invincibility because the market shrugged of IR and high oil prices etc. etc.
And yes there are still people buying houses like there are those still buying secondhand alfa 156s.
And again i am going to say it. I believe that many apartments currently retailing for 380-400K will result in at least 150K been knocked off by the end of this year.
Hi Phoenix_n
I thought from your recent post (above) that you were expecting a 40% drop in apartment prices by end of 2006 - it now sounds like you're expecting no dramatic prince fall until August 2007, have you changed sentiment?
axiom, if prices can't rise forever-they wont.
tough times ahead,i fear.
Nobody can call it accurately at this stage and there is never a 40% fall in prices of property in space of less than a year unless theres a major event to cause it. This will be a slow drawn out affair, dont listen to people saying prices will fall dramatically in space of a year or two as this isnt the way things pan out in the marketplace.But if posters choose to nail their colours to the mast then they cant turn around and say "oh it's a hard one to call" - if it is too hard to call a date, then don't call a date!!
Hi Phoenix_n
I thought from your recent post (above) that you were expecting a 40% drop in apartment prices by end of 2006 - it now sounds like you're expecting no dramatic prince fall until August 2007, have you changed sentiment?
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