Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

[whathome]

But for some, dipping into this thread, it has become very boring to see so many of the same types of post.

Sign of the times in a weakening market. I skip posts that don't interest me. Prices on websites such as myhome and daft are in the public domain.

Edit: When the "End of the road for soaring property market" article appeared in the Independent, posters claimed that the price drops mentioned by Fintan McNamara of IPAV were not really happening, that there was no evidence of falling asking prices. Subsequent evidence in this thread has proven that his statement - "agents are telling me that the same €700,000 property is now selling for about €20,000 less." was true.

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1645649&issue_id=14300

Now that we know that falling asking prices are a reality, there is no need to prove it with specific examples anymore. There are too many asking price drops occurring to list anyway.

 

[redo]

Two beautiful properties near me that both went on the market in late 2005 at 1.2 million and are now still sitting - prices slashed to 895,000. Maybe it's a sign that the smart "high end" buyers have fled the market and left this madness to the FTB Bottom-Feeders.

[broken link removed]=

[broken link removed]=

Lol, you said bottom feeders

 

[redo]

To have your property listed on a thread such as this, without consideration of the circumstances surrounding the price decrease, must be sickening. How do we know that some of the posters don't have a vested interest, i.e. want to buy a particular property and are trying to drive down the price further?

It must be very hard for vendors to see their property being discussed here and about how crazy the prices are. I agree. I can just imagine how the vendors must get enraged, putting off the potential purchasers, when they read the negative press about the asking prices about a posted link to a house, and I do feel for them.

I sold a house in Lucan, and would balk at people giving out about Lucan. In fact, I think this happened in the earlier thread that was closed down, about property in general. The vendor (I think) came out saying the such and such a house for sale that was posted, was a great buy etc.

However, I think we all need a collective pinch with regards to property prices. I think everyone here agrees that it can't continue on its current trajectory. Things need to slow down, for everyones sake. Unless we do, we could end up like the Wiley Cayote who has just realised that he (if cartoons figures have a sex) has just ran over the edge and has just enough time to look down, before he realises he is over the edge.

I've said it and alot of other posters have said it, FTB's provide the oil to the property market. Unless they can enter the market, it will stall. It is unlikely to crash, but just grind to a halt. I have projected that there will be a mad rush by the trade-uppers this Autumn, but I will admit, that we may have already seen it this Spring.

The upcoming budget needs to discourage investors entereing the market, perhaps by banning them from getting 100% mortgages, or some kind of property tax. There are plenty of investment oppertunities out there for people with money, no nonsense pyramid schemes for example. Current sentiment towards the housing market? Houses should not be purchased like commodities, there is too much at stake.

 

[whathome]

"The madness of crowds - the lessons from 400 years ago. How to spot a bubble"

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Opini...dness-of-crowds/2005/03/25/1111692625200.html

Could this be where the phrase "You're some tulip" comes from?

 

[liteweight]

good points... I would be inclinded to think that there would be some here who have a vested intestest in seeing a property that they like being targeted..... anyways such is life

Careful ninsaga, you may be accused of speaking in cliches. This is another thing bandied about to silence opposition on this thread.

 

[liteweight]

Sign of the times in a weakening market. I skip posts that don't interest me. Prices on websites such as myhome and daft are in the public domain.

I don't skip posts, I like to make a judgement based on what everyone has to say, whether I find it boring or not. Otherwise, I'd be in danger of reading, or giving credence only to those who agree with me! I am aware that MyHome and Daft are in the public domain and therefore open to all. I simply felt that to look at both sides of the coin i.e. those houses that sold for more than the amount asked, as well as those whose prices are dropping, would give a more balanced view of what's happening in the market. Of course this information is not available in Google's cache.

Now that we know that falling asking prices are a reality, there is no need to prove it with specific examples anymore. There are too many asking price drops occurring to list anyway.

I think I recall that you are selling an investment property. Will you be dropping your price? If so, would you like to see the property posted here? No matter, I think if people are unsure as to what their sentiment is with regard to the property market it would be better for all concerned if we tried to give an objective, balanced view.

 

[liteweight]

It must be very hard for vendors to see their property being discussed here and about how crazy the prices are. I agree. I can just imagine how the vendors must get enraged, putting off the potential purchasers, when they read the negative press about the asking prices about a posted link to a house, and I do feel for them. ....

..However, I think we all need a collective pinch with regards to property prices. I think everyone here agrees that it can't continue on its current trajectory. Things need to slow down, for everyones sake. Unless we do, we could end up like the Wiley Cayote who has just realised that he (if cartoons figures have a sex) has just ran over the edge and has just enough time to look down, before he realises he is over the edge.

I've said it and alot of other posters have said it, FTB's provide the oil to the property market. Unless they can enter the market, it will stall. It is unlikely to crash, but just grind to a halt. I have projected that there will be a mad rush by the trade-uppers this Autumn, but I will admit, that we may have already seen it this Spring.

Wiley Cayote aka Roadrunner (?)..very good analogy and I agree with you, we do need a collective pinch perhaps, but not a shove!! We'll all wait with bated breath to see what the Autumn holds. Personally, I don't think it will be as manic as this Spring. I'm not sure what happened there. I saw the most abyssmal houses in my area going for huge money! I suspect Spring prices are the reason that some vendors now have to drop their price i.e. they got carried away with themselves or else their Estate Agents did!!

FTBs are definitely getting a raw deal. It was never easy to get on the property ladder but the prices being asked for pokey apartments these days is , IMO, scandalous. I really don't know what can be done to alleviate this situation. The culture is firmly entrenched in home ownership as the way to go. Even if we were to try to follow the German model or that of cities in the USA, we'd find it impossible. The calibre and size of apartments produced here are such that families could never be raised in them.

 

[whathome]

I don't skip posts, I like to make a judgement based on what everyone has to say, whether I find it boring or not.

Good man liteweight

I think I recall that you are selling an investment property. Will you be dropping your price? If so, would you like to see the property posted here? No matter, I think if people are unsure as to what their sentiment is with regard to the property market it would be better for all concerned if we tried to give an objective, balanced view.

I'm selling two properties. As of this week, both sale-agreed. One at asking and one below asking, I didn't have to drop the "asking" price on either but came very close. I would have absolutely no problem with any property of mine being linked to here as a price drop - they were advertised publicly anyway. Any free to public listing on the internet can be linked to, that it the nature of the world wide web. Thanks to the internet and sites like askaboutmoney, it's easier to get an objective, balanced view.

Please PM me if you would like to discuss further.

 

[Guest107]

We'll all wait with bated breath to see what the Autumn holds. Personally, I don't think it will be as manic as this Spring. I'm not sure what happened there.

Twont. Twas the top of the market (assuming one sold at that price). Frightening even.

FTBs are definitely getting a raw deal. It was never easy to get on the property ladder but the prices being asked for pokey apartments these days is , IMO, scandalous.

Which is why I warned them off. Strenously so may I say and not all took the advice. They refuse to compare our apartments with European ones.

I really don't know what can be done to alleviate this situation. The culture is firmly entrenched in home ownership as the way to go. Even if we were to try to follow the German model or that of cities in the USA, we'd find it impossible. The calibre and size of apartments produced here are such that families could never be raised in them.

Yep. We do not build for families , we build for 'ladder' freaks who dream of the house ....later on.

 

[Duplex]

Property prices are now falling across the US, as inventories continue to build up. Prices measured in real terms (relative to US inflation running at 3% ( 1% above target)) are falling more sharply. It seems that a lot of the slowdown can be attributed to the disappearance of speculators in the hottest markets; who were buying for capital growth. If the Irish market remains subdued over the next couple of months it might effect the appetite of Irish 'investors' similarly.

 

[sonar]

Falling asking prices - so cleverly uncovered in this thread - appear to be fitting in with information from another source today in the front page headline of the SBPost.

Mortgage brokers who are

uniquely placed .... to detect early warning signs

are predicting a major slowdown in the housing market with house price inflation of 0% for 2007
(i.e predicting falls in real terms).

 

[whathome]

Here's a link to the SBPost headline:

Mortgage brokers predict drop in house prices in 2007
[broken link removed]=

"The Independent Mortgage Advisors Federation have predicted that the property market bubble will burst next year."

 

[Duplex]

Strange that mortgage brokers should be so frank? Is it a case of being first to the punch garnering kudos for their predictive powers? Or are they looking to shift vendors expectations in order to keep turnover ticking? Or maybe they have had a Paulian road to Damascus moment and seen the light?

 

[bearishbull]

Strange that mortgage brokers should be so frank? Is it a case of being first to the punch garnering kudos for their predictive powers? Or are they looking to shift vendors expectations in order to keep turnover ticking? Or maybe they have had a Paulian road to Damascus moment and seen the light?

Without going into detail they are acting in their own interests in some way,they always do these interest groups/associations hence the name.

 

[phoenix_n]

Here's a link to the SBPost headline:

Mortgage brokers predict drop in house prices in 2007
[broken link removed]=

"The Independent Mortgage Advisors Federation have predicted that the property market bubble will burst next year."

Read that this morning. Capital appreciation, the deciding factor in many purchases , is now stalled.

The 'fun' is about to begin.

 

[sonar]

They might be telegraphing a message to Cowen that an attempt to stimulate things again is needed to counteract the ECB or else the meltdown will start.

Hopefully Cowen will ignore it and allow the market to make the first moves towards normality.

 

[bearishbull]

Havent been to shops yet and business post website has'nt been updated, whats the article saying? Are they asking for anything to be done? I think its too late and would be too irresponsible for the governement to do anything drastic now.

 

[sonar]

Basically predicting a major slowdown because

1. Interest rates rising
2. Rising inflation means less money to spend on mortgages repayments
3. Bank Stress testing on top of higher interest rates is reducing how much debt people can acquire

They didn't suggest solutions. But they know that Cowen knows that the housing market etc etc.

 

[Guest107]

Basically predicting a major slowdown because
3. Bank Stress testing on top of higher interest rates is reducing how much debt people can acquire

The brokers can see people being refused or hardballed by certain banks who would have gotten a mortgage in the spring no probs. They can also see people who were approved for 100% and who are being told 90% or 95% at the very last minute and cannot 'find' this money as they disclosed everything to the banks .

In other words they can see the banks closing the taps off very fast because they are in a unique position to do so as they deal with nearly all the banks.

The Credit Unions have also closed off the taps this year, quietly .

Cowan cannot really inject an amount such as 5% of the AVERAGE mortgage in 2006 into the market to make up this shortfall ...save maybe in the budget in December. Were he to introduce a FTB grant of 5% to help the brokers that would be about €15000 a pop nowadays . As he abolishe dthat grant in 2003 he would have lots of pissd off punters out there who _should_ have got the grant and not that many who did get it by the next election. He would therefore lose votes.

Cowan could, however, introduce universal shared ownership where the government buys 10% of each and every FTB house and guarantees to take the hit if the market drops by 12% meaning the owner only has to pay 2% of the loss while the government takes a bath on their entire amount . Guarantor of first resort stuff not a grant per se.

Basically the credit train which drove prices onwards to insanity is drying up. While the irresponsible borrowers are still doing their damndest to get on their ephemeral ladder the lenders have started to leave the party.

 

[walk2dewater]

Cowan cannot really inject an amount such as 5% of the AVERAGE mortgage in 2006 into the market to make up this shortfall ...save maybe in the budget in December. Were he to introduce a FTB grant of 5% to help the brokers that would be about €15000 a pop nowadays . As he abolishe dthat grant in 2003 he would have lots of pissd off punters out there who _should_ have got the grant and not that many who did get it by the next election. He would therefore lose votes.

Cowan could, however, introduce universal shared ownership where the government buys 10% of each and every FTB house and guarantees to take the hit if the market drops by 12% meaning the owner only has to pay 2% of the loss while the government takes a bath on their entire amount . Guarantor of first resort stuff not a grant per se.
.

Or increase mortgage interest deductability.