Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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phoenix_n said:
Which bubble do you think is(was) bigger ?
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hard to compare without a big spreadsheet.

their mortgage rates hit 15% by 1991 which is what caused it (ours will not exceed 6% in this tightening cycle)

incomes were lower . takehome as % of average wage was similar to here now.

BUT the number of empties or vacants in the UK peaked around 6% ( [broken link removed]) at the bottom of the slump while our empty/vacant rate is much higher now . I have been very pessimistic since those CSO figures were released.


phew that would be a complex spreadsheet.
 
2Pack said:
while our empty/vacant rate is much higher now . I have been very pessimistic since those CSO figures were released.
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Do we really have a high vacant rate? Is this borne out by investors really having problems renting or just stock which is just not rented owing to tax reasons or whatever.
 
Bit late to bet on a recovery - the recovery has been underway there for about 12 months.
 
phoenix_n said:
Do we really have a high vacant rate? Is this borne out by investors really having problems renting or just stock which is just not rented owing to tax reasons or whatever.
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In this Indo article

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=9&si=1636317&issue_id=14226

300,000 homes were not counted in the census ( of population) for not having any population in them . 275000 long term empties and 30000 recent ones .

there are some 1500000 lived in homes in the state , thats near enough 16% empty or vacant (whatever 1500000 + 300000 = Total Homes ) .

London never went below 6% empty and had a nasty slump anyway . Why are we special ????
 
phoenix_n said:
Which bubble do you think is(was) bigger ?
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Ours unquestionably.

The problem as i see it though is that once the corner is turned it brings so much of the economy along it will be very difficult to know when it will stop.

Insofar as the current (post 2001) boom has been self-fueling due to the nations increasing reliance on the construction industry we have nothing to replace those jobs that will go as contruction slows (never mind crashes).

The timing couldn't be worse with rates on the way up, slowing fdi, negligable indiginous industry and growing pressure on American fdi to repatriate profits at home and pay taxes there.

I've long since given up offering my own reasoning within my own peers since it's seen as 'wishing for it' or 'begrudging those who've bought recently' (for what it's worth i put my money where my mouth is late last year and took a 200k profit by selling my home, not as simple as it seems though since we have the option to rent at a discount through family and will probably emigrate or move anyway in the next two years).

Due to the increasing bearish tone of the general media my opinion is now being sought out more often as to why this is all happening (loads more warnings, rates going up etc.)

Anecdotal though it may be i found one response particularly interesting from the group. Of 12 home-owners (mostly couples, late twenties/early thirties, none with kids, all employed, all purchased within last 24 months) i asked what would be their response if a downturn occured and they found themselves with negative equity.

After some debate half reckoned they would chuck the keys back to the bank and get on the first plane to oz/nz/uk/europe. The other half would struggle through as long as there wasn't a job loss and/or significant rate increases that mean they would have to significantly sacrifice lifestyle.

Sentiment? If we can't win then we sure as hell won't lose...
 
CapitalCCC said:
Bit late to bet on a recovery - the recovery has been underway there for about 12 months.
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I did bet a couple of months ago. Realised my gains in Irish property and put it into a german commercial Property fund.
 
Oh ya, but I think the recovery was about five months old when you first mentioned that fund on this website.
 
phoenix_n said:
Do we really have a high vacant rate? Is this borne out by investors really having problems renting or just stock which is just not rented owing to tax reasons or whatever.
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My aunt has 10 properties in Ireland (which she bought in the mid and late 90s). She has three of them lying vacant at the present time and is not too concerned. She also does not believe any of the negative press even though she regularly gets the Sunday Independent and the Sunday Business Post. Just pointing out the sentiment out there from first hand experience.
 
A very close friend of mine put all his investment properties on the market late last year. He owned 16 properties in all, accumulated over 10 years. He made a very tidy profit!! As all the properties were in the same area, an outsider might well have thought that there was something 'nasty' going on in the area, or, seeing as they were all rentals, that investors were selling up and heading for the hills!!

The truth of the matter is that he sold because of the PRTB! Before anyone rushes to judgement, he was not a bad landlord and his properties were in excellent condition. They were 2,3, and 4 bed houses. His problem was that each were multiple tenancies so his PRTB bills were quite hefty and he envisioned they'd only go up. He looked after his own properties and so his paperwork rose dramatically. The reason he put all of them on the market at the same time was very simple. He cut a really sweet deal with the estate agent based on the number of properties. Personal reasons also helped him make his decision, he has children and he wanted to spread the wealth and see them getting some enjoyment out of it while he was alive.

The properties lay empty for six months while he had them refurbished, although this was really just a paint job. He had always used the same painter and decorator, a small firm, and gave the job to him even though he could have hired a big outfit to do them all in a couple of weeks. In the time it took to get them all ready, he sorted out 'where to go from here' with his advisors. He says it was time and money well spent.

So you see, sometimes investors sell for reasons other than an impending crash. Sometimes houses look empty but there are things going on in the background that the casual observer is completely unaware of.
 
The problem I have with 18 months is that it's been bandied about all over the place and if enough people believe this to be true then surely the masses will start to work backwards...ie "I'll sell mine in 17 months", but then someone else will say "I'm not waiting until yer man starts selling at 17 months..I'm gonna sell in 16 months" and so on. Covered this in Economics ages ago, but too many brain cells killed in the meantime to remember the theory, but you get my drift...this will bring forward any correction if enough people hold the 18mth tiemframe as being fact
Firefly.
 

Yep. Gotta know when to buy but more importantly when to sell.
 
And most certainly do not stand in front of the train or try to catching the falling knife when it happens. This could play out over a long time.
 
Contrarian said:
And most certainly do not stand in front of the train or try to catching the falling knife when it happens. This could play out over a long time.
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Please lock this thread, the cliches are killing me!
 
SteelBlue05 said:
the cliches are killing me!
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Here's a few cliches that sound really tired!
[broken link removed]

- It’s not a house it’s a home.
- Buy now or you’ll be priced out forever.
- Renting is just throwing your money away.
- You have to live somewhere.
- They’re not making any more of it.
- Real estate never goes down.
- You’re just kidding yourself if you’re waiting for prices to fall.
- Never a better time to buy!
- I think you have a deep-seated fear of commitment.
- Never try to time the market (when it’s falling).
- It’s different this time.
- _(insert location)_ is so desirable, people will want to live here no matter how expensive it gets.
- Boomers/immigrants/rich people will keep prices permanently high.
- Prices have achieved a permanently high plateau/new paradigm/soft landing.
- _(insert location)_ is land-locked.
- If you’re waiting for the perfect time to buy, you’ll be waiting forever.
- You can’t lose in real estate –it’s a no-brainer.
- Real estate’s seasonal; after _(insert holiday)_ things will return to normal.

Interesting that you hear the exact same rubbish on both sides of the Atlantic!
 
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