Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Apologies if someone has already made this point, but if interest rates are going to rise even more before christmas, will potential buyers not be rushing to get into the market now while they will still qualify for higher mortgages than wait till next year thus causing a bit of a surge towards the end of the year?
 

Walk2dewater I believe first made this point, dubbing it the "race against rates". Certainly, in the U.S. the initial rate rises were seen as inflationary from a housing perspective precisely because of this phenomenon.
 

That point has been made several times but since rates have already risen by 1%, it's probably too late for people to borrow as much as buyers in the spring. As a result, prices will be lower than in the spring.
 

Isnt the next rate increase in Sept. Just in time for the 'expected' season to start again.
 

Fair point and agree it is likely, but my GOD what is the mentality of these people, do they think:

I must get a mortgage now as I am fully expecting a rate rise and I want to make sure that I borrow even more than the unbelieveablly irresposnible banks would be preapred to lend me once the rise actually kick in.

They bloody well deserve it!!
 
room305 said:
Walk2dewater I believe first made this point, dubbing it the "race against rates". Certainly, in the U.S. the initial rate rises were seen as inflationary from a housing perspective precisely because of this phenomenon.
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That is because US buyers generally lock rates for the total duration of their mortgage. Variable (adjustable) rate mortgages (ARM's) are a recent arrival to the US market. So people rush to lock in a low rate. Variable rates are dominant in Ireland so the "race against rates" is less likely to have as much of an effect here.
 
If I owned a home, I would most definitely leave it up on daft permanently at 10-15% above it's market value. If some poor sap went along and bought it, I'd simply buy back into the market and pocket the profit. My point? There's nothing stopping anyone (especially in a hugely volatile S. Dublin market) from doing the same.
 
phoenix_n said:
If you look at the market logically something like [broken link removed] shows that we are in for a big correction.
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Thats right behind the Cusack stand on the North Strand side. Its either in Marino or in North Strand not Drumcondra at all and the auctioneer knows that well .

Them housheens were €20k about 20 years ago .
 
A couple of things occur to me. How do you settle if your house is permanently on sale and people want to see it? House viewings are a nuisance.

Second thing occurs to me: is it a home you want or a get rich scheme? See, I don't have a lot of sympathy for people who get burned in the coming correction (because people will), but I have more compassion for those who actually want to set up a home for themselves than I do for those who are looking to get easy money.

Housing has an intrinsic purpose of providing shelter. Unfortunately, in Ireland of late, its primary purpose has been wealth generation. This in turn causes other problems which are going to be difficult to rectify. A lot of housing hasn't had shelter as its main remit, but short term profit. A lot of apartment blocks have gone up and to be honest I can't see all of them lasting out their 99 year leases.
 
phoenix_n said:
Isnt the next rate increase in Sept. Just in time for the 'expected' season to start again.
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Unlikely, October and December are the current forecasts for rate hikes.
 

Have to disagree. There were several articles in the Business Post over the weekend.

[broken link removed]

[broken link removed]

The warning signs are there. And besides, once the saps read it in the Sindo (indeed the Sunday Business Post), it'll be too late. The ladz are all sitting in their villas in Marbella and driving their Maybachs.

It may be the "silly-season", but this Irish housing market stuff is deadly serious and should not just be passed of as "silly-season doom-mongering". I'd say many a commuter will not be able to face another winter of 4 hours a day being wasted in a train carriage. They will think they're being clever by selling "before the imminent pop" - most of them will probably leave it too late as they'll wait until the last minute to get out of the gold mine, at which stage the elevator to the surface will be full.

Anyway, what to you think of this boyo, Noel Ahern, coming out with stuff like: "interest rate painless": [broken link removed]

And even greater clowns over in the ESB (despite their 77k average annual salaries) messing with the economy by supplying Intel not with electricity, but with power cuts:
[broken link removed]
 
CelloPoint said:
FROM :Anyway, what to you think of this boyo, Noel Ahern, coming out with stuff like: "interest rate painless": [broken link removed]
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"Ahern said he had yet to meet a constituent who had not been able to handle the rate increases"

That's cos there were't too many constituents in the FF tent in Galway!!
 
Calina said:
A couple of things occur to me. How do you settle if your house is permanently on sale and people want to see it? House viewings are a nuisance.
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My post was made in half-jest. I personally wouldn't want the hassle of having my house on sale permanently; but if someone came in with an offer of 10-15% above it's market value, I'd ate the hand off them!
 
I love the Sunday Business Post guide to TrichetSpeak...

"Borrowers, be afraid. Be very afraid!"

[broken link removed]
 
Any of the bank's passed on the latest interest rate increase to mortgage holders yet??? Any indication as to when it will happen?
 
Here's another price drop in Beaumont, D9. A friend of mine (not me - honestly) dropped out of bidding on an identical one of these at €610,000 in April, it has since returned to the market at 585k. These are commodity houses, there are about 400 of them in the estate.

Original price €570,000


Reduced price €550,000
[broken link removed]=
 
summerhill said:
Any of the bank's passed on the latest interest rate increase to mortgage holders yet??? Any indication as to when it will happen?
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That's another good point. Can't remember where I saw it (boards.ie or here on AAM), but is there any evidence that the banks are not passing on the rises to their customers? If this is the case, the Irish banks are basically giving 2 fingers to the ECB, and it's like saying "to hell with the long-term future of the Irish economy, we're going to milk the tiger for every last drop of blood" and "we know better than the ECB". Interest rates for Ireland should have increased years ago and we should be welcoming rate increases!!! It's too late though, and the short-term gain associated with a price spike is more favourable (from a bank's perspective).
 
whathome said:
Reduced price €550,000
[broken link removed]
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Before i got to the end i knew which EA was selling it. Why THEY ALWAYS HAVE TO ADVERTISE WITH CAPITAL LETTERS is beyond me. So bloody annoying. (dont they know its akin to shouting)

(p.s. You gotta hand it to those who sold at the start of the year. They made a killing.)
 

You have got to be joking me? People were spending 600K plus in Collinswood?

Oh My God. That's insane. I'm glad I didn't look, I'd have been sick.
 
phoenix_n said:
(p.s. You gotta hand it to those who sold at the start of the year. They made a killing.)
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I'm lovin' the sentiment but just before I start making smug phone calls and marching around the office yelling "I told you so" can you please confirm that we have peaked and that the crash is currently underway?
 
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