Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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CelloPoint said:
I don't think they've done it just yet. I would say they're building up the story though. I wouldn't be surprised if the headlines were prepared already.
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They have started to do it , saturday front page was the increase in the sixe of the average Irish mortgage by €1000 a week in 5 years based on CSO data.

The Indo did not mince words . Their headline on the front page was !

[FONT=Arial, Verdana, Arial]Mortgages increasing by €1,000 every week[/FONT]
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which is a lot truer than Dans soft landing waffle .
 
I like the bit in the article about Sir Tony's butler.

Was it J.P. Morgan who sold all his stocks in advance of the 1929 Wall St. crash when he started to hear stock tips from his shoe shine boy? !!
 
HighFlier said:
I like the bit in the article about Sir Tony's butler.

Was it J.P. Morgan who sold all his stocks in advance of the 1929 Wall St. crash when he started to hear stock tips from his shoe shine boy? !!
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It was JFK's father.
 
HighFlier said:
I like the bit in the article about Sir Tony's butler.

Was it J.P. Morgan who sold all his stocks in advance of the 1929 Wall St. crash when he started to hear stock tips from his shoe shine boy? !!
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No it was Joseph P. Kennedy, father of John F. Kennedy, the late American President. He sold his stocks in 1928 before the 1929 crash, locking multi-million dollar profits and indeed even profited from the crash due to owning a number of short positions on the market.

The phrase "sell when the shoeshine boy is buying" has been attributed to him, as he apparently received stock tips from someone who was shining his shoes. Convincing that the market was very much overbought and likely to crash.
 
Just read the BOI comments on rte website.

Average cost of house $400k with Dublin =$525k

We also have the comments from Brian Cowen our finance minister stating that Ireland isn't dependent on construction industry.

On same day,we get a report that stamp duty has increased 300% from 2000 to 2005 and housing output doubled in same period.

With information like the above from the top bank and financial steward in the country,is it any wonder that people are desperate to get on housing market and driving prices upwards without thinking through the consequences.
The higher prices go up,the harder will be the fall

Interestingly,Australian interest rates are forecast to go up to 6.0% this Wednesday,local paper said over 25 years at 7.25%,repay $2900 pm for $400k loan,50 year mortgage would be $2500 pm.

These repayments would be the total net income of a lot of 1st time buyers
 
There are enough "marginal" fools left to rush to buy over the next 6mths thus ratcheting prices significantly higher.

Apart from generalised insanity/stupidity, the reasons for this are:

"This is my last chance to qualify for a mortgage big enough to buy a house..."

and

"I want to lock-in a fixed rate..."

Both comments ended off by "...before I'm priced out and will never have my own house"
 
macbri said:
Just read the BOI comments on rte website.
Average cost of house €400k with Dublin = €525k
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Again, these figures diverge MASSIVELY from the most recent ESRI/PTSB House Price Index, that
gives the average price of a house nationally as €300k and the average in Dublin as just over €400k.

How do the BoI justify these figures and why aren't the media questioning their validity?
 
phoenix_n said:
as a side note. When you can buy a half a house (or [broken link removed] if your posh) for 320 you
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This is now advertised for 280K. 12.5% drop.

(could not find the cache of it though)
 
ivuernis said:
W2DW, your prediction of one final hurrah maybe coming true...
Irish house prices increased by 15.2% in year to June; Rate of increase more than trebles in first half of 2006
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Anyone involved in buying or selling this year can testify how crazy it was. I was even bidding on a house that i had yet to view.


....

Actually just thinking in total:
Bid on 3 houses in galway - outbidded
Bid on 1 house in Tipperary -sale agreed- Problems with title
Bid on 2 bed terrace in Phibsboro -sale agreed- No planning permission for extension
Bid on 2 bed terrace in Phibs - Outbidded
Bid on 1 bed terrace in Phibs - outbidded
Bid on 1 bed terrace in phibs - outbidded
Bid on 2 bed terrace in phibs - outbidded (blown out of water more like it)

Thats 12 houses from feb to july

and number 13. New build in Phibs.Apartment. Backed out owing to current view of market.

Mad huh.
 
Not in today's market - the EA probably expects to have a queue of people with the cheque books out for such "LOW MAINTENANCE" (literally by the look of it!!) living in our magnificent cosmo capital!
 
phoenix_n said:
Anyone involved in buying or selling this year can testify how crazy it was. I was even bidding on a house that i had yet to view.


....

Actually just thinking in total:
Bid on 3 houses in galway - outbidded
Bid on 1 house in Tipperary -sale agreed- Problems with title
Bid on 2 bed terrace in Phibsboro -sale agreed- No planning permission for extension
Bid on 2 bed terrace in Phibs - Outbidded
Bid on 1 bed terrace in Phibs - outbidded
Bid on 1 bed terrace in phibs - outbidded
Bid on 2 bed terrace in phibs - outbidded (blown out of water more like it)

Thats 12 houses from feb to july

and number 13. New build in Phibs.Apartment. Backed out owing to current view of market.

Mad huh.
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I would say you're playing it sensible. The risk is huge at the moment. Perhaps 13 is lucky for you after all?
 
What I've seen so far has convinced me to sell. Will look at putting my house on the market in Oct/Nov.

Myself and my gf are really not looking forward to telling our parents what we're doing. They think selling property in order to rent is tantamount to treason.

Funny thing is, once we sell we'll actually lose some discretionary income, as rent will cost more than mortgage outgoings. However, in terms of risk/return, it makes no sense for us to be burdened with a mortgage on what is essentially an FTB property.
 
room305 said:
Funny thing is, once we sell we'll actually lose some discretionary income, as rent will cost more than mortgage outgoings. However, in terms of risk/return, it makes no sense for us to be burdened with a mortgage on what is essentially an FTB property.
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So what is your long term plan?

Seems a bit of bad decision to sell in order to pay rent which will be greater than your current repayments. Unless I just dont understand these things.

Are you now not going to be burdened by an even bigger rent repayment?
 
The dude will bank his profits to leverage his reentry to the market at or near bottom . He will get a non FTB property in a bette rlocation for less than his FTB property cost .....is that not the plan dude ???

Mrs 2Pack and I also considered selling but we live in a highly distorted micromarket with stonking planning permission difficulties restricting new builds with no enurement clauses .
 
phoenix_n said:
But they are an indication nevertheless of inventory coming onto the market. If the public are somewhat nervous you will find that many 'sale agreed' properties wil come onto the market again. This can only really be noticed by an unusual increase in inventory.

as a side note. When you can buy a half a house (or [broken link removed] if your posh) for 320 you know the market is warped and even [broken link removed] for 475 is not realistic
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What kips for the price. You could rent a great apartment/house in nice part dublin for less than interest only mortgage on those properties,this tells you market is highly overvalued.
 
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