Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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Andy Doof said:
Yeah, but "production" isn't going to remain at 90,000 units a year. An increase of 1.2 million people is a fair old increase. If they are immigrants, a lot will rent surely?
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if production decrease to 35,000 a year that would mean more than a half of all people employed in building will be let go. Many of these are foreigners who came here to work on buildings. Where will they go?
in would agree though, a 1.2 million increase is an awful lot if you look at it in historical terms. But an economy so reliant on building is also at a high level if you look at it in historical terms.
 
Andy Doof said:
Morning!
Interesting that NCB predict our population will grow by 30% to 5.3 million by 2020...should keep demand stoked up
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Pie in the sky stuff,they just extrapolated out current trends like things were never going to change,a useless report really. Does anybody think the party will go on indefinitely ?
 
thewatcher said:
Pie in the sky stuff,they just extrapolated out current trends like things were never going to change,a useless report really. Does anybody think the party will go on indefinitely ?
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So anything that suggests the end is not nigh and there will be a soft landing is self-serving pie in the sky stuff with an agenda?
 
Andy Doof said:
So anything that suggests the end is not nigh and there will be a soft landing is self-serving pie in the sky stuff with an agenda?
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Eh,what the hell does a guestimate and that's all it is, that the population will be 5.3 million in 14 years time have to do with a Crash v soft landing senario now !.you clutching at straws big time now
 
thewatcher said:
Eh,what the hell does a guestimate and that's all it is, that the population will be 5.3 million in 14 years time have to do with a Crash v soft landing senario now !.you clutching at straws big time now
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Because one of the main thrusts of the "good times being over" argument is that the demand just won't be there. NCB publish a report saying that the population is going to keep increasing and it's debunked as "pie in the sky".
 
whathome said:
Of course there is, I sold a house a few weeks ago, and then bought one

Nobody said the market was dead, it's just not doing very well.
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I thought you were one of the main bears here..........

So we can conclude that in some circumstances it's a good time to buy, but not rush in blindly on the basis of 'ah sure jeysus the property always goes up.........'

We're still some way off a crash once people stand back and have a look at all this. There are more reasons to buying property than from a pure investment point of view. There are always a certain number of ftb's out there willing to dive in.
 

Good man Arthur...that's the spirit!
There'll be a crash for the buffoons buying left right and centre but for the discerning punter...let the good times roll on!
 
Amygdala said:
Thats a growth of only 2% year on year. Including domestic birth rate of 50,000 pa.
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In fairness, I don't think there's been ever been a case of a developed country continuing with a population growth rate of 2% for such a long period of time. Most developed countries have a population growth of below 1%... Are we going to be different?

Since we're a relatively small island with an eligible supply of workers, 100 times our population, we're very exposed to immigration/emigration trends. When times go good then they will go very good, when times go bad...
 
whathome said:
Unfortunately for the property market, the population growth will not be in the home buying age profile. Take a look at the demographic disaster coming up for the Irish property market:

[broken link removed]
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I'm afraid I can't see any of these! Can anyone else? I just get a 403 error.
 
Andy Doof said:
Good man Arthur...that's the spirit!
There'll be a crash for the buffoons buying left right and centre but for the discerning punter...let the good times roll on!
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Mmmm I accept there will always be some transactions, if sufficient momentum gets going we can and probably should for long term competitiveness have a crash.

All this doesn't escape the fact that so many people have got themselves in terrible HOK in recent years. It doesn't justify 11 times avg income for an average house, short term blinkered views on european interest rates, crazy LTV's. releasing equity to but plasma tv's and 4x4s etc. etc.
 
whathome said:
Unfortunately for the property market, the population growth will not be in the home buying age profile. Take a look at the demographic disaster coming up for the Irish property market:

[broken link removed]
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There are nearly 3 times as many births as deaths in this state and our immigration rate similarly outnumbers our death rate. The only people who aren't of home buying age are the young (who either have not accumulated enough wealth to purchase one, or are not yet in employment). The population will increase, and that means increased demand for homes (we need more houses!). Now as long as the construction industry doesn't oversupply the market....
 
Having put our house on the market over last weekend, first viewing was last night and we have an asking price offer, with further viewings organised for next week. The asking price is set about €15k higher than we'd have put it on at in February (now @ €395k).

Looks like our target market isn't too bear-ish, but that could be quite location specific.
 
The NCB were proposing a scenario. It's not a forecast or prediction because no economist would pretend to have any idea as to what will happen beyond a 5 year horizon (apart from any group who have an interest in selling property portfolios)
 

I think this is a good example...good properties will continue to appreciate.
But the 1 Bed apartment on the bad side of Balbriggan is goosed!
 

Risk - reward
Junk bonds are riskier than Government bonds from developed countries. As such they tend pay a higher rate of interest. That is, you take on the risk, you make more money if it works out.
Starting a business is riskier than working fulltime, but you'll potentially earn a _lot_ more. Running an internet startup is a lot riskier than a corner store. YouTube sold to Google for 1.6 billion...

The entire insurance industry is based on this principle ;-)

Let me clarify that I agree that property is overvalued in Ireland right now, and is not a good investment. However, if you were a bear over the last 10 years you would have missed out on the biggest property bull run in the states history! Not a recipe for creating "untold" wealth. It's easy to sit and do nothing. Taking decisive action to get involved, involves taking risks. Some of the bears on here have suggested that they will try and make money in what they are calling as a bear market - but most will sit it out (again!) I suspect!
 
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just on the s fitz article yesterday

IMO the award for calling the top of the market goes to HOK who sold out in early summer. Clever boys given they have alot of exposure to the new build market.

Have not seen HOK quoted too much re the "soft landing" of the market, Savills who bought them are a quoted company so it would be too much egg on face.

For me this was a key leading indicator of the property market.
 
cheeko said:
The NCB were proposing a scenario. It's not a forecast or prediction because no economist would pretend to have any idea as to what will happen beyond a 5 year horizon (apart from any group who have an interest in selling property portfolios)
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Oh, right the old "people from well established respected firms which are regulated put out blatant self serving lies in order to propagate the myth that all is well".
They can not and would not do that
 
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