Current public sentiment towards the housing market?

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You just don't get it Doofus - It's a market! People wanting a crash are not willing ill on others, they just want cheaper property.
 
There will be winners and losers in the same way there was winners and losers on the way up in the bull market. Nothing in economics is as predictable as cycles.
 
Andy Doof said:
I also said that commentators who are willing there to be a crash are wishing ill on people.
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Not necessarily. I'd like to see a crash because house prises are completely insane and bear little relation to what the properties are really worth. Just look at what the same money would buy abroad.

There may be people stuck with negative equity, but that is because prises have risen too high for too long. A correction is long overdue before it gets even worse!

Hoping for continued price rises is wishing ill upon people who already can't afford to buy a house, or who have to tie themselves into a lifetime of debt to do so...
 


I disagree. There is a market out there for funished properties.

The area is close to DCU - anyone buying a pad for their college kids (which is pretty common) could be swung by it - a lot less hassle plus they don't have to be in Dublin to take deliveries (that may not show up). Also some FTBs could find it attractive not having to initially trawl through the furniture shops and have the same hassle.... Some investors could also be swung by it if the furniture was good quality....

Why do you think people pay more for showhouses?
 
So anyone know how many years ago that aprt would have been worth 300K. (Monkstown)
 
Lol...I think we're talking at cross purposes here. As I've said before I don't believe we will experience a "crash".
Obviously as an investor I don't want to see a crash but I am prepared for it. It's not investors or pension funds or even family homes with 90% equity I worry about...it's people who've just got onto the ladder, who've spoofed the banks. I know the flipside is affordibilty for tomorrow's FTB but I reckon there's more to lose from a crash than there is to gain.
and apologies for the shouting...liquid lunch!
 
Andy Doof said:
I wasn't actually...I said a crash in the property market could have dire consequences for some people.
You seemed to think this was a bizarre point of view. I still don't understand why?
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Andy,

no one denies that a crash in the property market would have dire consequences for some people, in the same way that the skyrocketing market values have had direc consequences for some people. But your sympathy seems to be targetted only towards those who will lose in a crash, not those who have been aversely impacted by the rising market.

In and of itself, the fact that some people will be damaged is not a good reason to try to prevent a correction from happening. There is a simple problem: property is far too expensive for many people on above average incomes. Not just average incomes, but above average incomes. There are only two ways for this to adjust: either property prices come down or incomes go up. The latter will happen over IBEC's dead body. I know people who are earning less in real terms now than they were earning 5 years ago.

The economy is being seriously damaged and skewed by the property market at the moment. If some semblence of rationality does not return to that market then signally more people are going to get hurt in the long term.

The assumption on the part of those with their head buried in the sand about the reality of the property market - where people on 50KE a year can't afford to buy a one bedroomed apartment within 15km of the edge of Dublin city - appears to be that "you're trying to spoil it for us all". In truth, for many people it is spoilt at the moment but of course, because they don't own property, are not part of the property wealth pyramid, their opinions don't count, they're only whining because they can't get on the ladder.

As things stand, things in the Irish property market are bad now. It's easy to pretend they're not while people who own property are feeling rich, but there are a lot of people who do not own property, who would like to buy homes, not income generators, and who are priced out of the market. Whether you like it or not, their opinions count as much as those who have a massive mortgage but feel rich because their property has gone up 15% in the past 2 years or whatever. It will not change the fact that no matter what price you paid for your house, if you took out a mortgage of around 90% of the value of the house, it will still cost you double the price of the house.

Yes, a property crash would hurt some people. But in that way, it is not any different to a property bubble which has equally hurt more than a few people.
 
Surely a happy medium is what we want...price stagnation for maybe even the next decade?
 
Andy Doof said:
Surely a happy medium is what we want...price stagnation for maybe even the next decade?
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Well I can't speak for anyone else but no, I don't agree. I think a sharp correction because prices are severely out of kilter with long term reality at the moment followed by inflation tracking rises would be a better scenario than long drawn out stagnation.
 
Yeah, but surely a gradual correction is preferable to a crash or collapse?
 
phoenix_n said:
So anyone know how many years ago that aprt would have been worth 300K. (Monkstown)
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Thing is, competition drives prices. If you can afford it now, you probably would have gotten a loan for it back then. If you can't afford it now you would probably been refused (someone else would have been a safer bet for the banks). So if prices fall, we're still going to be in competition with the same people, and the guy who earns more or has more wealth is going to get the nice house ahead of us. 30 years ago with high unemployment and high emigration if you had a job - you could have your pick. Not so now, with 70-80,000 immigrants pa and full employment. And if the economy crashes - you've got to be lucky enough to hold onto your job!
 
Andy Doof said:
Yeah, but surely a gradual correction is preferable to a crash or collapse?
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Avoiding a shock would be preferable. However, how many recent investors will hang on to their property with miserable yields while inflation slowly eats away at their value?
 

It is the bubble that is the cause of the misery for people in the long term. The crash is just a symptom and what happens at the end of a bubble.

Therefore those wishing for ever higher house prices were the ones that were really "wishing ill on people".

Unless Andy Doof you have been feeling really sorry for the first time buyers that were forced by parents/media/peer pressure to take on huge debts for a starter home, and now have to find hundreds a month more to service those debts?

Surely if todays university generation can be spared this misery then that is a good thing, no?
 
Dipole said:
No. Property is a product like any other and generally consumers want it to be as inexpensive as possible.
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Well its not quite like any other product. Its not like buying a Mars bar in the shop.

Its a high value product, its very expensive, its also part of a cultural norm where people want to own a house, and its a status symbol.

So its not always true that the cost of it is the only important aspect.
 
I understand where Andy Doof is coming from and I think it explains to me how things got to this state. I think that many, probably the majority of people failed to take account of the unsympathetic nature of the market system when it comes to fixing prices.
 
I guess it all depends on your agenda...speaking as a homeowner and as an investor I would prefer to see a soft landing. The bears who are dumping their properties want to see a crash. The soon to be first time buyers want to see a crash, or do they? Perhaps the thought of their massive inheritance not being so massive is a greater influence...
 
shanegl said:
Avoiding a shock would be preferable. However, how many recent investors will hang on to their property with miserable yields while inflation slowly eats away at their value?
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Speaking as a recent investor (18 months ago) I will certainly be hanging on to mine irrespective of the market trends. I didn't view capital appreciation as the driver for buying an investment property. I see it as "one of the eggs" in my investment portfolio for the longer term (20 years). I have young kids and would hope that my initial investment (about 20K) will contribute to their future when they need it but I am not solely relying on it in that regard.
 
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